PSG vs Arsenal Champions League Final Picks and Predictions

Saturday, May 30 cannot come soon enough. Budapest's Puskás Aréna plays host to the biggest club game in European football, as reigning Champions League holders Paris Saint-Germain square off against Premier League champions Arsenal in the UCL Final. 

PSG is chasing history as they bid to become the first French club to claim back-to-back European Cups, while Arsenal is hunting its first-ever Champions League title; the one glaring trophy missing from the cabinet at the Emirates. Kickoff is set for 12 pm ET, and with this much on the line, let’s break down the best bets for Saturday’s final.

PSG vs Arsenal Champions League Final predictions

• PICK #1: Under 2.5 Goals (-125)
• PICK #2: Arsenal to Win the UCL Trophy (+120)
• PICK #3: Viktor Gyökeres Anytime Goalscorer (+175)

PICK #1: Under 2.5 Goals (-125)

Goals have been hard to come by whenever these heavyweights face elite opposition, and I don’t expect Saturday to be any different. PSG has seen fewer than three goals in three of their last five matches and in three of their four most recent UCL knockout ties. Arsenal has been even more miserly; all six of their Champions League knockout games this season finished under the 2.5 goal mark, and they’ve gone under in five of their last seven across all competitions.

The tactical fingerprints of both managers point the same direction. Mikel Arteta has turned Arsenal into one of Europe’s most defensively disciplined sides; their only multi-goal knockout performance was a 2-0 win over Bayer Leverkusen in the Round of 16 second leg. Luis Enrique, meanwhile, has dialed back the aggression when facing top-tier sides. Outside of a wild 5-4 first-leg win over Bayern Munich, PSG’s last eight results in meaningful knockout ties read: 1-1, 2-0, 2-0, 5-0, 2-1, 1-0, 1-0, 1-0. Low and slow is the theme. With PSG also missing key attackers through injury, the firepower on display could be limited. Hammer the Under.

PICK #2: Arsenal to Win the UCL Trophy (+120)

The Gunners enter as the slight betting underdog at +120 to lift the trophy, but the value is firmly on their side. This is a markedly stronger Arsenal squad than the one PSG eliminated in last season’s semifinal. Defender Gabriel was absent for both legs a year ago and his return to the backline gives Arteta a commanding presence he sorely lacked. Up front, the club finally invested in a genuine No. 9, Viktor Gyökeres, adding a goal threat they previously didn’t have. Kai Havertz is fully fit after battling injury, and the offseason signing of Eberechi Eze has added creativity and unpredictability in the final third.

On the other side, PSG arrives banged up. Ousmane Dembélé, Achraf Hakimi, and Nuno Mendes are all injury concerns heading into Saturday. Dembelé has been listed as questionable after being forced off during PSG’s final Ligue 1 fixture, Hakimi is considered doubtful after exiting the Bayern semifinal first leg, and Mendes hasn’t featured since picking up a knock in the same tie. Lose all three starters, and PSG’s overall quality drops considerably. Arteta has made history once already this season by delivering Arsenal’s first league title since 2003; at +120 odds, backing him to complete the double feels like smart money.

PICK #3: Viktor Gyökeres Anytime Goalscorer (+260)

Arsenal finally has the center forward they’ve been missing for years, and Viktor Gyökeres looks tailor-made to make an impact on the biggest stage. His combination of physicality, movement in behind, and composure in front of goal makes him a constant threat in exactly the kind of low-block, counter-attacking setup Arteta is likely to deploy on Saturday.

PSG’s defensive depth takes a significant hit if both Hakimi and Mendes are sidelined, which could leave their backline exposed to the direct, powerful running that Gyökeres thrives on. In a match where clear-cut chances will be few and far between, you want your goalscorer bet on the player most likely to make the most of a single opportunity. He’s Arsenal’s most dangerous weapon, PSG’s defense is undermanned, and +260 is a price worth attacking.