Italy vs. France Prediction, UEFA Nations League Odds & Best Bets (10/2)

Fact checked at 10:35 AM ET, Oct 2, 2026

Odds as of Oct 2, 10:12 AM ET

Zinédine Zidane coaches France at home for the first time Friday. He arrives with six points from two 1-0 road wins, in Türkiye on Sept. 25 and in Belgium three days later. Italy has three points in League A Group 1 after a 2-0 home loss to Belgium and a 4-1 win in Türkiye. Kickoff at the Stade de France in Saint-Denis is 2:45 PM ET. Expect temperatures around 60 degrees and falling into the upper 50s, light wind and no rain.

France is without Kylian Mbappé, who hurt his left knee on the shot that beat Türkiye and left the camp the next day. Italy has lost two forwards during the window, Giacomo Raspadori and Nicolò Zaniolo. Both teams last played Monday and play again Monday, and Roberto Mancini changed eight starters between his first two matches.

Prediction markets make France a -213 favorite in a three-way result market: France win, draw or Italy win, graded on the score at the end of regular time. The draw is +400, Italy is +614, and a draw loses a bet on either team. Every price in this article is a prediction-market price converted to American odds, and every one is for 90 minutes plus stoppage time. The match can end in a draw, and nothing after the final whistle of regular time counts. France was about -200 before the window and is close to that now. Lineups are due about an hour before kickoff.

Italy vs. France Predictions

• Pick #1: Under 3.5 Goals (-144)
• Pick #2: Italy +1.5 (-133)
• Pick #3: Both Teams To Score: No (+133)

PICK #1: Under 3.5 Goals (-144)

Two matches under Zidane, two 1-0 wins. France has scored once in each and allowed five shots on target in total across the pair. Asking this match to produce four goals is asking a lot.

Türkiye got three shots on target in the first of those, Belgium two in the second. France had about 64% of the ball in the first match and 65% in the second, and put four and then seven shots on target. The goals came in the 54th minute and the 88th. Mbappé scored the first and came off five minutes later. Without him in Brussels, France needed 18 shots to score once, and Michael Olise did it off the bench.

Italy is harder to read. It took 21 shots against Belgium in Rome and did not score, then scored four in Türkiye from eight shots on target, three of them inside 27 minutes, with Raspadori in the lineup. Raspadori is out, Zaniolo is out, and Mancini has said he will rotate again, though less than he did for that match.

The total is settled on regular time only, stoppage time included. Three goals still win this bet, so a 2-1 or a 3-0 game is covered. The price was -144 as of 10:12 AM ET, a 59.0% implied probability, and given what France has allowed so far I do not think that is unreasonable.

The trouble, mostly, is Italy. Its two matches produced 40 and 29 total shots, and Belgium put eight on target against it. Moise Kean, who had several of Italy's chances in that game, is a fitness doubt, but Pio Esposito and Sebastiano Esposito are expected to start together after the Bursa win. France created plenty in Brussels too, with nine changes to its lineup, and Ousmane Dembélé, Olise and Désiré Doué are all available for a home match. Ibrahima Konaté withdrew before the first match, William Saliba was not called up, and an early goal would stretch the game.

Under 2.5 pays +178 if you want the bigger number, but a 2-1 result kills it. A 1-0 or 2-0 French win cashes this and the third pick together.

PICK #2: Italy +1.5 (-133)

Italy +1.5 was -133 as of 10:12 AM ET, which implies 57.1%, and the case is short: France has won both of Zidane's matches by a single goal and is laying a goal and a half without Mbappé. It is graded on the regular-time score and wins unless France wins by two or more.

Both French wins came down to one second-half goal, the second of them in the 88th minute. Mbappé scored the first. Dembélé started up front in Türkiye, and Esteban Lepaul, who made his debut as a late substitute that night, led the line in Brussels and came off after 68 minutes without scoring. Dembélé is expected to captain the side Friday.

Italy does not have to score. It has to stay within a goal, and a draw or an Italian win cashes too. Nicolò Barella and Riccardo Calafiori, who started against Belgium but not in Bursa, are projected to return; Barella was one of 10 players Mancini kept back at Coverciano for that trip. Kean started in Rome as well, but Mancini said Thursday that he has a fitness problem and is still being evaluated. Italy has also taken 35 shots in two matches, so it has not been pinned back in either one.

The Belgium result is the catch. Belgium won 2-0 in Rome, exactly the scoreline that loses this bet, with eight shots on target. Three days later largely the same Belgian team managed two shots on target against a French side that had made nine changes. France is at home, has kept the ball for long stretches in both matches, and still has Dembélé, Olise and Doué. Italy is on the road for the second time in five days, three starters from the Belgium match were left off the travelling squad, and Giovanni Di Lorenzo may start on the bench.

France is -213 in the three-way market, where a draw at the end of regular time loses. A 1-0 French win cashes this pick and the Under; a 2-0 win beats this one only.

PICK #3: Both Teams To Score: No (+133)

France has not conceded under Zidane, and Italy has already been shut out once in this group. Those are the two routes to a winner here. The bet is graded on regular time and pays if either team finishes it without a goal.

France has allowed five shots on target in two road matches. Mike Maignan and Maxence Lacroix started both, and the clean sheet in Brussels came with nine other starters changed, so the defensive work has not depended on one back line. Türkiye and Belgium each took 12 shots, and few of them tested Maignan.

Italy's finishing is what I trust least. Twenty-one shots at home against Belgium and nothing to show for it. The four goals in Türkiye came from a defender, a midfielder, a full-back and Pio Esposito, with Raspadori starting alongside him. Raspadori came off at halftime of that match and has since left the camp, and Zaniolo left before it. The bet also wins if Italy keeps France out, and Gianluigi Donnarumma has started both Italian matches.

Fourteen shots on target in two matches is more than Türkiye and Belgium managed against France combined, and that volume is the problem with this bet. The Esposito brothers are expected to start together, and Pio Esposito had a goal and an assist in Bursa. Kean is a doubt, which takes one scorer off the board, but Italy still scored four without him on Monday. France's center-back pairing changed between its two matches, with Konaté withdrawn and Saliba not called up. And France has scored in both of its games, so one Italian goal would probably be enough to beat this bet.

The price was +133 as of 10:12 AM ET, which puts the implied chance at 42.9%. This pick and the Under lean on the same French defense; a 2-1 game beats this bet while the Under still cashes. It wins alongside Italy +1.5 on a 1-0 or 0-0 game, and a 2-0 French win cashes this one and beats that one.

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