Ole Miss vs. Vanderbilt Prediction, CFB Week 6 Odds & Best Bets (10/10)

Fact checked at 6:40 AM ET, Oct 10, 2026

Odds as of Oct 10, 6:34 AM ET

The weather is the story. The National Weather Service has Nashville under a wind advisory through Saturday evening, with east winds of 10 to 20 mph and gusts up to 40, plus a flood watch that runs into Sunday morning. Its hourly forecast gives the kickoff hour a 94% chance of showers and thunderstorms, and rain chances between 48% and 67% for the rest of the game. A lightning delay is possible.

No. 9 Ole Miss (3-1, 1-1 SEC) walks into that off a bye week and a 52-28 loss at Florida. Vanderbilt (3-2, 0-2) has dropped two straight, 21-15 at Auburn and 38-14 at Georgia, and played Georgia without quarterback Jared Curtis, who bruised his knee at Auburn. Curtis had a full week of practice and is not listed on Friday's SEC availability report, so he is expected to play. Ole Miss running back Kewan Lacy is questionable on that report with a shoulder injury. He has not played since the LSU game, and Pete Golding said earlier in the week that even when Lacy returns he will not take 40 or 50 snaps.

Ole Miss is a 9.5-point favorite after opening at 10.5 on Sunday, Oct 4. The Rebels' moneyline has slid from -410 to -355, with Vanderbilt at +280, and the total has dropped from 57.5 to 54.5. Kickoff is 3:30 PM ET at FirstBank Stadium in Nashville, on ESPN.

We expect a slog. The rain and wind take the edge off Ole Miss's passing game, Vanderbilt keeps handing the ball off, Sedrick Alexander punches one in, and the Rebels win by less than 10 if they win at all. All three picks below need that same afternoon.

Ole Miss vs. Vanderbilt Predictions

• Pick #1: Sedrick Alexander Anytime Touchdown (-130)
• Pick #2: Under 54.5 Total Points (-112)
• Pick #3: Vanderbilt +9.5 (-108)

PICK #1: Sedrick Alexander Anytime Touchdown (-130)

Alexander has found the end zone in every game Vanderbilt has played, and the school's game notes have him at six straight regular-season games with a touchdown, counting last season. Most recent first:

A 2-yard run at Georgia (8 carries, 35 yards)

A 3-yard run at Auburn (11 carries, 13 yards)

A 10-yard catch against NC State (7 carries, 53 yards)

A 9-yard run against Delaware, an FCS team

An 18-yard run against Austin Peay, also FCS

That is five of Vanderbilt's 13 offensive touchdowns. The SEC games make the point better than the totals do: the Commodores managed three offensive touchdowns against Auburn and Georgia, and Alexander scored two of them. At Auburn he ran for 13 yards on 11 carries and still got the 3-yard score.

Ole Miss is a soft spot for this kind of back. The Rebels allow 194.8 rushing yards a game and have given up 10 rushing touchdowns in four games, six of them at Florida and two each to LSU and Louisville. Vanderbilt spent the week spraying footballs with water bottles to practice with a wet ball, and Clark Lea said the offense needs to "create the run wall" to make space for Alexander and MK Young.

The risk is sharing the goal-line work. MK Young also gets carries and is +160 to score, and Curtis ran in two 1-yard touchdowns against Delaware. Alexander averages 4.4 yards a carry, so he needs the offense to get close, and two of his five games came against FCS teams. -130 works out to 56.5%, a fair price for a back who has scored in every game.

PICK #2: Under 54.5 Total Points (-112)

At -112 (52.8%), this is a bet that the weather does what the forecast says. Ole Miss wins through the air. The Rebels average 322.5 passing yards and 117.5 rushing yards a game, and Trinidad Chambliss has thrown for at least 298 yards in three of four games. Throwing into 15 mph winds with gusts up to 40, with a wet ball, is a different job, and Lacy is questionable and on a snap limit if he plays.

Vanderbilt hasn't moved the ball well against SEC defenses either. It scored 15 at Auburn and 14 at Georgia, and those games finished with 36 and 52 total points. One offense that wants to run and another that may have to should keep the clock moving.

Ole Miss games have been anything but quiet, though. The Rebels allow 30.8 points a game, and two of their four games reached 79 and 80 points. The total has also come down three points from the open, so the market has already priced some of the storm. We'd still take a run-first underdog in a thunderstorm to keep this in the 40s.

PICK #3: Vanderbilt +9.5 (-108)

Vanderbilt has covered against all three FBS opponents it has played. That includes both SEC road games as a double-digit underdog: a 6-point loss at Auburn and a 24-point loss at Georgia, where it was getting more than 24. Ole Miss, meanwhile, has covered once in four games, in the 32-24 win over LSU.

The market has nudged toward the Commodores too, a point on the spread (10.5 to 9.5) and from -410 to -355 on the Ole Miss moneyline. In a storm with fewer clean possessions, winning by 10 or more is a big ask for a road favorite whose best weapon is its quarterback's arm.

Ole Miss has had two weeks to prepare, Vanderbilt has scored 15 and 14 points against SEC defenses, and Curtis is coming back from a knee injury, so this isn't a lock. The price, -108, implies 51.9%. If Vanderbilt runs the ball and Alexander scores, this should still be a one-score game late.

21+ (18+ where permitted). Odds subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.