Ole Miss vs Georgia CFB Playoff Quarterfinal Sugar Bowl Picks

The College Football Playoff quarterfinals conclude on New Year’s Day in New Orleans as Ole Miss and Georgia meet in the Allstate Sugar Bowl. Kickoff is set for 8 PM ET on ESPN inside the Caesars Superdome. This matchup is a rematch of an October meeting in Athens that Georgia won 43-35 after a dominant second half. 

Ole Miss is navigating its second postseason game without Lane Kiffin on the sideline, while Georgia arrives peaking defensively and chasing another national title run under Kirby Smart.

Ole Miss vs Georgia Predictions

• PICK #1: Georgia -6 (-110) Click Here to Bet
• PICK #2: Under 56 Total Points (-110) Click Here to Bet
• PICK #3: Gunnar Stockton Over 36.5 Rushing Yards (-115) Click Here to Bet

PICK #1: Georgia -6 (-110) Click Here to Bet

Georgia laying six points feels more justified given how much has changed since these teams last met. Ole Miss has largely been the same team since October, while Georgia has clearly improved in the areas that matter most in playoff football. The Bulldogs’ lines of scrimmage have tightened significantly, the 3rd-down defense has become suffocating, and Kirby Smart’s trademark second-half adjustments have turned close games into comfortable wins down the stretch.

The biggest variable is Ole Miss playing without Kiffin calling the shots. While the Rebels looked explosive against Tulane in the first round, that was against the weakest defense in the CFP field. Georgia presents a completely different challenge. In the first meeting, the Bulldogs had just eight possessions and scored on every one of them, wearing Ole Miss down with physicality and depth.

Ole Miss now faces the difficult task of keeping pace offensively while likely playing from behind against a defense that has allowed fewer than 81 rushing yards and 274 total yards in each of its last four games. 

Georgia doesn’t need its offense to be spectacular here. It simply needs to stay efficient, control the ball, and let its defense dictate terms. Without Kiffin’s in-game creativity, it’s hard to see Ole Miss matching Georgia drive for drive. This has the potential to be the biggest blowout of the quarterfinals.

PICK #2: Under 56 Total Points (-110) Click Here to Bet

The total is inflated by perceptions of Ole Miss’ offensive firepower, but this matchup sets up better for a slower, more controlled game than the first meeting. Georgia’s offense has done enough but has not been explosive in recent weeks, relying more on screens, ball security, and methodical drives than downfield shots. That style shortens games and limits possessions, especially when paired with Georgia’s improved defense.

Defensively, the Bulldogs have quietly returned to their championship identity. Over their past four games, opponents have struggled to stay on the field, converting just 20.8% of third downs. Georgia has also forced turnovers and generated consistent pressure without blitzing heavily.

If Georgia builds a lead, expect the Bulldogs to lean on the run game and bleed the clock. That game script points toward a total that lands comfortably under the mid-50s.

PICK #3: Gunnar Stockton Over 36.5 Rushing Yards (-115) Click Here to Bet

Gunnar Stockton’s rushing ability is one of the most reliable matchup edges in this game. Ole Miss ranks just 45th in EPA against the run and has consistently struggled to contain mobile quarterbacks. Arkansas’ Taylen Green gashed the Rebels for 115 rushing yards, while several other quarterbacks cleared 35 yards with ease, even in lopsided losses.

Stockton himself ran for 59 yards on 10 carries in the first meeting against Ole Miss and has tallied 37+ rushing yards six times this season, including in each of his last two games. Georgia wants him involved as a runner in big games, using designed carries and scrambles to punish aggressive defensive fronts.

With Ole Miss likely focused on limiting Georgia’s running backs and screen game, Stockton’s legs should again be a major factor. His willingness to tuck the ball and gain yards in key moments makes this prop one of the strongest angles on the board.