Oklahoma vs. Texas Best Picks 10/11

The Texas Longhorns and Oklahoma Sooners will meet in Dallas in the always highly anticipated Red River Rivalry game on Saturday, October 11. The kickoff at the Cotton Bowl is set for 3:30 PM ET, with the game broadcast live on ABC. This clash features an Oklahoma team that appears to be one of the best in the SEC and is expected to have its quarterback back from injury for this rivalry showdown, while the Texas Longhorns are reeling after losing to Florida a week ago. 

With both teams looking to make a statement on a national stage, let’s dive into our expert’s predictions and best bets for this SEC rivalry showdown.

Oklahoma vs. Texas Predictions

• Pick #1: Oklahoma Sooners ML (+100) vs. Texas Longhorns
• Pick #2: Under 43.5 Total Points (-110) 
• Pick #3: Parker Livingstone (TEX) Over 30.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

Pick #1: Oklahoma ML (+100) vs. Texas

Given the fact that Oklahoma was fortunate enough to play Kent State a week ago, the Sooners have effectively had two weeks to prepare for this massive rivalry showdown. Oklahoma was embarrassed in this spot a season ago, so we can expect Brent Venables and company to have had this one circled, and they should be focused from the opening kick. 

As of now, quarterback John Mateer is rumored to be playing, but even if he doesn’t suit up, the Sooners do have a quarterback waiting in the wings who started in a few games a season ago, Michael Hawkins Jr. Regardless of which quarterback plays, we trust that Oklahoma’s defense and excellent coaching staff will put the Sooners in good spots.  

As for Texas, Arch Manning and the Longhorns offense looked lifeless against Florida at the Swamp a week ago, in which Manning barely completed over 50% of his passes and also finished with a pair of interceptions. His task won't get any easier against a Sooners defense that is every bit as good as advertised, ranking inside the top five nationally in yards per play and points per quality drive allowed. With that in mind, Oklahoma is the only way we can look at this matchup. 

Pick #2: Under 43.5 (-110)

The projected total suggests that this year’s edition of the Red River will be much lower scoring than in years past, and we’re inclined to agree. On one hand, Oklahoma could be integrating Mateer back into the offense, and it would be reasonable to expect the Sooners offense to struggle a bit against a Texas defense that holds top 20 marks in success rate allowed and Early Downs EPA, while also sitting at 5th nationally in points per drive allowed. 

As for the Sooners defense, this could be the best unit in the country, with Oklahoma sitting at first nationally in success rate allowed, second in points per drive allowed and second in EPA per play. Manning and the Texas offense have been struggling mightily to get anything going on offense, and we can’t imagine that this will change all that much against a defense of this caliber. 

Pick #3: Parker Livingstone Over 30.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

This is a contrarian play given that the under is also the recommended side for this contest. However, it lines up with what Texas’ game plan should be because the Longhorns will likely need to see success through the air to stay in this one. 

It’s been extremely difficult to run on this Oklahoma defense, with the Sooners sitting at first nationally in rushing success rate allowed. With that in mind, Texas shouldn’t even try to run; they should focus on generating explosiveness anyway they can through the passing game. In steps Parker Livingstone, who has been a reliable security blanket for Manning, racking up nearly 300 receiving yards on the year thus far. Given that Livingstone has cleared this prop in four of the five Longhorns games this season, we’ll roll with the top Texas wideout to catch what is thrown his way once again.