Oklahoma vs Alabama Best Picks

Oklahoma vs Alabama Best Picks

Saturday’s clash between No. 4 Alabama and No. 11 Oklahoma at Bryant-Denny Stadium (3:30 PM ET, ABC) plays a significant role in shaping the College Football Playoff picture. The Crimson Tide have won eight straight and own the nation’s longest active home winning streak at 17 games, while Oklahoma is fighting to keep its postseason hopes alive. 

Last year’s shocking 24-3 Sooners win in Norman is in the back of minds of Alabama players, coaches and fans. With Alabama favored by six and the total sitting at 46, this matchup looks destined to be a low-scoring chess match decided by execution and turnovers.

Oklahoma vs Alabama Predictions

Pick #1: Oklahoma Sooners +6 over Alabama Crimson Tide (-110)

Pick #2: Under 46 (-110)

Pick #3: Ryan Williams Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+135)

Pick #1: Oklahoma +6 over Alabama (-110)

Alabama enters this one riding momentum, but Oklahoma’s defensive structure gives the Sooners a strong chance to stay within the number. Brent Venables’ unit has been among the best in the country, ranking at the top of the SEC in both points and yards allowed. Their front four is disruptive and disciplined, and their interior especially can clog running lanes against an Alabama offense that hasn’t produced much on the ground all year. The Tide’s longest run in last week’s 20-9 win over LSU went just seven yards, and their lack of a reliable running back continues to force quarterback Ty Simpson to carry the offense.

Simpson has handled that responsibility well, throwing efficiently and creating big plays downfield, but the Sooners’ physical defensive line will challenge Alabama’s pass protection. Oklahoma has been vulnerable at times against elite passing attacks (allowing over 300 yards through the air in recent games vs. Ole Miss and Tennessee), yet Venables has had two weeks to prepare after a bye. Expect creative pressure packages and disguised coverage to make Simpson work for every completion.

Offensively, Oklahoma’s path to a cover runs through quarterback John Mateer’s mobility. Since returning from hand surgery, Mateer has been inconsistent as a passer. His legs could prove critical against an Alabama defense that’s struggled to contain dual-threat quarterbacks this season. If the Sooners can sustain a few drives with Mateer’s legs and force Alabama to settle for field goals, they’ll hang around deep into the fourth quarter. The Tide may win, but a 23-20 type of game fits perfectly with Oklahoma +6.

Pick #2: Under 46 (-110)

Alabama has been methodical on offense, relying on short passes and clock control, and hasn’t scored more than 30 offensive points in SEC play this season. The Tide’s inconsistency in the run game has limited explosive plays, and that trend is unlikely to change against an Oklahoma front that wins at the line of scrimmage.

With both teams preferring to grind out possessions rather than play at tempo, this game projects as one where the ball moves between the 30s but points are hard to come by.

Turnovers could also swing things toward the under. Alabama ranks fourth nationally in turnover margin (+10), while Oklahoma sits 110th (-5). If the Sooners’ offense can avoid giving away short fields, their defense is equipped to slow the Tide’s vertical passing game enough to keep scoring down. 

Pick #3: Ryan Williams Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+135)

After battling injuries early in the season, Alabama sophomore stud wideout Ryan Williams has produced 36 catches for 528 yards and four touchdowns in seven games. In SEC play, he’s logged either 40+ receiving yards or a touchdown in every appearance. His chemistry with Ty Simpson has grown each week.

Oklahoma’s defense has been stellar overall, but still gives up big plays through the air – especially to elite route runners capable of winning one-on-one matchups. Williams’ combination of burst and body control makes him a prime candidate to exploit Oklahoma’s talented but young secondary.

Given Alabama’s poor rushing output, expect Simpson to throw more than 35 times on Saturday. The Sooners will sell out to stop the short passing game, opening opportunities for Williams to win on fades and slants in the red zone. With his recent form and the Tide’s heavy passing lean, +135 offers strong value for Williams to find the end zone for the second straight week.