Oklahoma State vs. Houston Prediction, CFB Week 7 Odds & Best Bets (10/17)

Fact checked at 6:49 AM ET, Oct 17, 2026

Odds as of Oct 17, 6:42 AM ET

Houston is 5-1, and its only loss was 28-26 at Texas Tech. Every one of its wins has come by double digits, the latest a 35-16 win at Kansas State last week. Oklahoma State is 4-1 and has scored at least 39 points in each of the four straight wins that followed its 24-10 opening loss at Tulsa.

The line has moved Houston's way all week, from 3 points on Oct 7 to 4.5, and the total has climbed from 57.5 to 62.5. Both moves make sense. Houston runs the ball, at 230.0 yards a game, and stops it, allowing 74.0, fourth-fewest in the FBS. The Cougars carried 43 and 44 times in their last two games, and no FBS opponent in their last four topped 168 rushing yards. Oklahoma State has allowed 149 a game on the ground, including 335 at West Virginia. That leaves the Cowboys to throw, and they can. Drew Mestemaker has passed for at least 304 yards in three of his four FBS games, and four of Houston's five FBS opponents threw for 257 or more.

So the bets ride on one game: Houston controls the line of scrimmage and wins by more than a score, and Oklahoma State racks up passing yards trying to keep pace.

Oklahoma State is without safety Mose Phillips III, who had 11 tackles and an interception at West Virginia. Houston lists linebacker Jaden Yates and defensive lineman De'Marion Thomas as out, defensive back Alvin Williamson Jr. as doubtful and defensive back Jalen Mayo as questionable. The Cougars host at 7:30 PM ET on FOX.

Oklahoma State vs. Houston Predictions

• Pick #1: Patrick Overmyer 67+ Receiving Yards (-113)
• Pick #2: Drew Mestemaker 280+ Passing Yards (-123)
• Pick #3: Houston -4.5 (-110)

PICK #1: Patrick Overmyer 67+ Receiving Yards (-113)

Overmyer has gone past 67 receiving yards in all five of Houston's FBS games: 84 against Oregon State, 73 at Texas Tech, 68 at Georgia Southern, 76 against UCF and 83 at Kansas State, where four of his eight catches went for touchdowns. Conner Weigman has other targets in Amare Thomas and Koby Young, but Overmyer caught six or more passes in four of those five games.

Oklahoma State's secondary is down Phillips, and UCF threw for 265 yards on it last week. A -113 price puts him at 53.1%, which is cheap for a receiver who hasn't been held under this number by an FBS defense. A low-volume night is what beats it. Weigman threw only 22 passes at Georgia Southern, and Overmyer cleared by a single yard that day.

PICK #2: Drew Mestemaker 280+ Passing Yards (-123)

Mestemaker gets his yards in big pieces. He threw for 317 against Oregon, 389 at West Virginia on 27 attempts and 304 against UCF on 28. He'll need that arm against a front allowing 74 rushing yards a game, and Oklahoma State's run game has already stalled once, when Caleb Hawkins carried 23 times for 83 yards against UCF. Houston has given up 376 passing yards to Oregon State, 257 to Texas Tech, 289 to Georgia Southern and 259 to UCF, and it plays without Yates and probably Williamson.

At -123, the implied chance is 55.2%. The miss on his record is real: 241 yards on 49 attempts in the loss at Tulsa. Kansas State also threw for only 182 against Houston last week. But a team playing from behind throws, and Mestemaker has cleared 300 in three of his four FBS games.

PICK #3: Houston -4.5 (-110)

Houston went into Kansas State as an underdog last week and won 35-16, running for 233 yards. It ran for 202 at Georgia Southern and converted 32 of 54 third downs across its last four games, which is how you keep a fast-scoring offense on the sideline. The two-point loss at Texas Tech is the only game all season Houston has played within 10 points.

Oklahoma State's lone road loss, 24-10 at Tulsa, came with four turnovers; its lone road win came at West Virginia. The Cowboys can score quickly enough that a late touchdown could land inside the number. At -110, a 52.4% break-even, Houston is the side.

21+ (18+ where permitted). Odds subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.