Ohio State vs Texas Picks 9/12

Ohio State vs Texas Picks 9/12

Ohio State heads to Austin on Saturday night looking for a third straight victory over Texas, but this version of the rematch should look different from last year's 14-7 Buckeyes win.

Arch Manning and Julian Sayin are no longer inexperienced starters figuring things out on the fly. Both quarterbacks have another year behind them, and both offenses are loaded with NFL-calibre skill talent.

Still, the defining question might again be which offensive line survives against an elite defensive front. Kickoff from DKR-Texas Memorial Stadium is set for 7:30 PM ET on ABC.

Ohio State vs Texas Predictions

Pick #1: Texas Longhorns -1.5 over Ohio State Buckeyes (-110)

Pick #2: Under 49.5 (-110)

Pick #3: Hollywood Smothers (TEX) 40+ Rushing Yards (+110)

PICK #1: Texas -1.5 over Ohio State (-110) 

The Buckeyes' offensive line is the part of their roster I trust least, and Texas has a nightmare matchup waiting on the edge in Collin Simmons.

Sayin was excellent for much of last season, but the best defenses gave him problems. In three starts against Top-10 teams, he threw three interceptions and absorbed 10 sacks.

If Texas can create that type of pressure without selling out, it can spend more resources making Jeremiah Smith's night difficult.

The Longhorns have their own offensive issues to clean up. Their Week 1 production depended heavily on explosive plays, and the offense generated negative EPA on the more routine snaps.

Ohio State knows exactly what that means. The Buckeyes are going to try to make Texas play boring football: take the checkdown, convert third downs and finish drives instead of waiting for a 50-yard touchdown.

Manning played his best football late last season, and now has Cam Coleman as a trusted outside target and gets this matchup at home under the lights.

Ohio State lost seven defensive starters to the NFL from last year's group. The replacements are talented, but Austin is a difficult place to discover whether all the pieces fit.

PICK #2: Under 49.5 (-110)

There are enough offensive stars here to make an Under uncomfortable, but the way these teams should attack each other points toward another lower-scoring fight.

Ohio State should be determined to make Manning complete six or seven passes on a drive and make the Longhorns convert in the red zone. Above all, don't let Coleman or Smothers erase 50 yards with one touch.

Texas' defensive goal should be equally clear: make Sayin uncomfortable. The Ohio State quarterback can tear apart a clean pocket, but the Buckeyes still need to prove their offensive line can handle a pass rusher like Simmons.

That should encourage Ohio State to establish the run and avoid putting Sayin into constant third-and-long situations.

Something in the 24-20 range makes plenty of sense.

Two strong defenses, a huge early-season game and an emphasis on avoiding turnovers should keep possessions valuable and scoring below 50.

PICK #3: Hollywood Smothers (TEX) 40+ Rushing Yards (+110)

Texas needs more consistency on offense, and getting Smothers involved is one of the easiest ways to create it.

He ran for 70 yards in Week 1, including 50 after contact, and brings legitimate touchdown-from-anywhere ability to the backfield.

Ohio State had tackling issues in its opener and showed enough vulnerability on the ground to make this an area Sarkisian should test immediately.

Smothers also gives Texas a way to take some pressure off Manning. The last thing the Longhorns want is to spend the entire night asking their quarterback to beat Ohio State from obvious passing downs. A more balanced attack can slow down the rush and keep the offense ahead of schedule.

At only 40 yards, Smothers doesn't need much volume.

A handful of designed touches plus one missed tackle can put this prop within reach quickly. His Week 1 performance should also make it difficult for Texas to keep him on the sideline in a game this important.