Ohio State vs Notre Dame CFP National Championship Game picks

The College Football Playoff National Championship between the Ohio State Buckeyes and Notre Dame Fighting Irish is set to begin at 7:30 pm ET on Monday, January 20 (although kickoff will likely be closer to 7:45 pm ET) at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta, Georgia. Two storied programs meet in a battle for the first-ever 12-team College Football Playoff championship, with Ohio State seeking its first title in a decade and Notre Dame aiming to cement Marcus Freeman’s legacy with a championship win over his alma mater.

Both teams arrive with impressive resumes. Ohio State has powered through the playoff with dominant performances, while Notre Dame’s gritty approach has seen them edge elite competition. With top-tier defenses and a pair of transfer quarterbacks in Will Howard and Riley Leonard leading the charge, this game promises to be a chess match on every level.

Predictions

Pick #1: Ohio State Buckeyes -8 over Notre Dame Fighting Irish (-110)

Pick #2: Under 46.5 (-110)

Pick #3: TreVeyon Henderson over 52.5 rushing yards (-115)

Pick #1: Ohio State -8 over Notre Dame (-110)

Remember when Michigan took out the Buckeyes in Columbus in the final week of the season, holding Ohio State to just 10 points? Well, Notre Dame’s makeup shares many qualities with Michigan’s, emphasizing physicality, the types of athletes each possesses, and a ground-and-pound philosophy. Notre Dame even has better quarterback play. This could lead to a game script similar to Ohio State’s loss against Michigan, but the Buckeyes have shown adaptability in the CFP, especially with their offensive versatility, in part thanks to genius play calling from offensive coordinator Chip Kelly.

Notre Dame plays the second-most man coverage in college football, and they are darn good at it. Their willingness to man up and send more players up front to dial up blitzes has generated an FBS-best 32 turnovers. The problem is, Notre Dame’s secondary hasn’t been tasked with stopping a wide receiver room as talented or deep as Ohio State’s. Will the Fighting Irish stick to its identity and test Jeremiah Smith in man coverage?

If Notre Dame sticks to man, Ohio State’s key lies in hitting a few explosive plays through the air while establishing the run. TreVeyon Henderson has been pivotal in recent meetings, racking up 195 rushing yards across two games against the Fighting Irish in 2022 and 2023. Notre Dame’s defense, which faltered against Penn State’s ground attack, could struggle against Henderson’s explosiveness. Meanwhile, quarterback Will Howard’s playoff efficiency (6 TDs, 2 INTs) adds another dimension to the Buckeyes’ attack. 

Defensively, Ohio State’s dominance in points allowed (12.0 per game) and red-zone efficiency creates a high barrier for Notre Dame’s methodical offense, which is not necessarily reliable in the passing game, to overcome.

Leonard’s legs facilitate the success of Notre Dame’s offense, whether that’s via rushing yards or extending plays and avoiding sacks to find an open man downfield. 

Ohio State’s depth and versatility should eventually overwhelm Notre Dame, especially in the red zone, where the Buckeyes’ efficiency could prove decisive. In the end, Ohio State’s defense is on par with Notre Dame, but the Buckeyes possess so many more weapons on offense. Even if Notre Dame is able to neutralize Smith, Emeka Egbuka (WR) and Henderson each have two big games against Notre Dame under their belt. If Will Howard can keep the ball out of harm’s way, and if Notre Dame can’t come up with a signature non-offensive touchdown, it’s hard to imagine the Buckeyes winning by fewer than 10 points. We like Ohio State in a victory along the lines of 24-14. 

Under 46.5 Total Points (-110)

This matchup features two of the best defenses in college football. Ohio State’s ability to control the line of scrimmage and Notre Dame’s knack for forcing turnovers suggest a lower-scoring affair. The Irish will likely lean on a conservative, run-heavy game plan to limit Ohio State’s time of possession, while the Buckeyes will counter with a measured approach that prioritizes efficiency over risk.

Notre Dame’s Leonard has been excellent at extending plays, but his ability to escape Ohio State’s relentless pass rush, led by Jack Sawyer and J.T. Tuimoloau, will be tested. On the other side, Notre Dame’s defense, led by aggressive blitz packages, will look to disrupt Howard’s rhythm and contain big plays. The result could be a field-position battle with limited scoring opportunities.

Both offenses may struggle to find rhythm against elite defenses, making the under a strong play. Expect a methodical, grind-it-out game where turnovers and field position dictate the pace.

TreVeyon Henderson over 52.5 rushing yards (-115)

Henderson has been a thorn in Notre Dame’s side in their previous meetings and, unfortunately for the Fighting Irish, he remains a focal point for Ohio State’s offense. With Notre Dame’s secondary likely to prioritize taking away receivers Jeremiah Smith and Emeka Egbuka, Henderson should have opportunities to find gaps in the Irish’s defensive front. Notre Dame allowed 204 rushing yards to Penn State in the semifinals, and many of us were left wondering why or how the Nittany Lions didn’t rack up more after totaling a majority of their total in the first half.

Henderson’s ability to break tackles and create big plays makes him a threat against a Notre Dame defense that thrives on aggression but can be susceptible to overcommitting. Ohio State’s effective use of 12 personnel formations could also open up running lanes, giving Henderson the edge to surpass this modest rushing prop.

Henderson’s track record against Notre Dame and Ohio State’s need for balance on offense make this prop highly achievable. His explosive ability to find space and capitalize on mismatches should see him clear 52.5 rushing yards comfortably.