Ohio State vs Michigan CFB Picks November 29th

Ohio State vs Michigan CFB Picks November 29th

The latest chapter of one of college football’s greatest rivalries unfolds Saturday at noon ET on FOX as No. 1 Ohio State visits No. 18 Michigan at Michigan Stadium. Ann Arbor will deliver seasonably frigid conditions, which often define games in this series, but the story this year revolves around stakes and streaks. 

Ohio State enters undefeated at 11-0, and while Michigan sits at 9-2, the Wolverines have beaten the Buckeyes four straight times. The Wolverines’ hopes of spoiling Ohio State’s perfect season hinge not just on home-field advantage, but on their ability to overcome mounting injuries at the most important position in their offense: running back.

Ohio State vs Michigan Predictions

Pick #1: Ohio State Buckeyes -10 over Michigan Wolverines (-110)

Pick #2: Under 44.5 (-115)

Pick #3: Jeremiah Smith (OSU) Anytime TD Scorer (-145)

PICK #1: Ohio State -10 over Michigan (-110)

Ohio State has every reason to treat this matchup as personal. The Buckeyes have dropped four straight in the rivalry, yet enter this game with the better roster, the healthier backfield, and game-breakers at wideout. The Buckeyes should come out attacking through the air, leaning on the explosive pairing of Jeremiah Smith and Carnell Tate. Smith is expected to play after being cautiously held out last week, and he provides matchup problems that Michigan may struggle to solve. Michigan’s defensive front is stout, though not built like past Wolverine units that dominated the trenches. This team lacks the same interior disruptors and now faces the most efficient passing attack it has seen all season.

The deeper concern for Michigan is on offense. The Wolverines’ identity is tied to their run game, yet leading rushers Jordan Marshall and Justice Haynes may not be able to suit up. Marshall is probable, but Haynes is the true home-run hitter. Together, Marshall and Haynes have combined for 264 carries, nearly 1,800 rushing yards and 20 rushing touchdowns. While Michigan third-string RB Bryson Kudzal broke out against Maryland, that came against a defense nowhere near Ohio State’s level. 

In the passing game, Michigan will depend on five-star freshman Bryce Underwood going against the top pass defense in the country. It’s a tough matchup for the first-year starter, as Ohio State allows just 126.6 passing yards per game and ranks first in scoring defense at 7.6 points per game. 

Michigan’s two losses this season, against Oklahoma and USC, came against the two best teams they faced, and both losses came by double digits. Ohio State is better than both. With Michigan’s run game compromised and the Buckeyes controlling the matchup through the air, Ohio State is the play.

PICK #2: Under 44.5 (-115)

The total sets up for another under in a rivalry that often slows into a possession-by-possession battle. The Buckeyes own the nation’s best defense, ranking first in overall yardage allowed, first in scoring and second against the run. Their ability to stonewall the run is critical because Michigan is not designed to throw itself back into games. Without a fully healthy backfield, the Wolverines will likely take an even more conservative approach, shortening the game and attempting to keep the ball out of Julian Sayin’s hands.

Ohio State is also no stranger to grinding matchups. Their two lowest-scoring games came against the best defenses they've faced (Texas and Washington), and Michigan is closer to that tier than any opponent since. 

Harsh weather, a road environment, and a defense that rarely allows chunk plays all support a slower pace and fewer possessions. The Buckeyes may play with slightly more tempo in this matchup, but both teams’ defensive personnel and Michigan’s offensive limitations point firmly toward a lower-scoring outcome. A 21-10 type of game is very much in play.

PICK #3: Jeremiah Smith (OSU) Anytime TD Scorer (-145)

Jeremiah Smith is the kind of player who changes game plans and forces defensive adjustments before the ball is even snapped. With Michigan ranking just 88th in pressure-to-blitz ratio, the Wolverines must blitz to generate heat, but blitzing Ohio State is precisely what opens the field for Smith and Tate. If Michigan sits back to avoid exposing their secondary, Sayin will have time to attack clean windows. If they send pressure, Ohio State’s receivers will find one-on-one matchups they can exploit. Smith has already proven he can dominate against top competition, and his role should only increase here as Ohio State leans more heavily on its passing game.

Michigan’s defense is very strong, but it has not consistently faced a receiver of Smith’s caliber nor a passing offense that converts on 55.8 percent of third downs. In a game in which Ohio State figures to try to set the tone early, Smith is positioned for volume, red zone involvement, and at least one high-leverage explosive play.