Ohio State vs. Iowa Prediction, CFB Week 5 Odds & Best Bets (10/3)

Fact checked at 9:33 AM ET, Oct 3, 2026

Odds as of Oct 3, 6:12 AM ET

No. 5 Ohio State (3-1, 1-0 Big Ten) visits No. 14 Iowa (4-0, 1-0) in Iowa City, and it's the first time since 2009 these two have met with both ranked in the AP top 15. The Buckeyes' only loss came 24-23 at Texas on Sept. 12, and Texas now sits at No. 1. Since then Ohio State has beaten Kent State 59-3 and Illinois 42-19. Julian Sayin threw for 367 yards and four touchdowns against the Illini, and Jeremiah Smith caught all four. Iowa has won with defense. Two shutouts, 8.0 points allowed per game, lowest in the country. Last week the Hawkeyes won 20-19 at Michigan when Hank Brown hit Reece Vander Zee for a 16-yard touchdown as time expired.

Consensus has Ohio State -14 with a total of 45.5. The spread opened at 14 or 14.5 depending on the book and the total at 44.5, so not much has moved. On the moneyline it's Ohio State -625, Iowa +450. Friday's availability report lists Iowa safety Tyler Brown and Ohio State right tackle Phillip Daniels as out, with Ohio State cornerback Jay Timmons questionable. None of that is final until the Big Ten's last update, two hours before kickoff.

Kickoff is 3:30 p.m. ET Saturday on CBS from Kinnick Stadium.

Ohio State vs. Iowa Predictions

• Pick #1: Iowa +14 (-112)
• Pick #2: Under 45.5 (-110)
• Pick #3: Ja'Kobi Jackson Anytime Touchdown (+145)

PICK #1: Iowa +14 (-112)

Two touchdowns is a lot to hand this Iowa defense in its own building.

Yes, the 8.0 a game is padded. Two of the four games were shutouts of Northern Illinois and Northern Iowa, an FCS team. But look at the real tests. Iowa State and Michigan put up 13 and 19 on the Hawkeyes, 16.0 a game, and those offenses average 36.7 and 27.3 against everyone else. Iowa has allowed three touchdowns all year. None came on the ground.

I won't pretend 14 is a soft number, though. Ohio State has beaten every defense's usual points allowed by at least 13, and its own defense gives up 12.3 a game. Blend the two résumés and you get something like 28-15, close to where the line already is. So the bet is that Iowa's defense holds up in this matchup. The line itself looks about right.

Iowa +14 sat at -112 in consensus as of 6:12 AM ET, which makes it a 52.8% proposition. Some books deal 14.5 at -115, and that extra half point is worth having.

Now the worries. Iowa State and Michigan gained 255 and 429 yards on this defense (342 a game, 3.9 a carry), and Michigan threw for 276. Smith has 33 catches for 617 yards and seven touchdowns, and Brown, a starting safety, is out. Anthony Hawkins, who started the first two games, is likely next in line. Ohio State scored 23 at Texas, and Texas's other three opponents (Texas State, UTSA and Tennessee) scored 30 combined. Iowa's offense managed one touchdown against Iowa State and needed Braeden Jackson's 99-yard kickoff return to get to 20 at Michigan. The betting is on the other side too: as of 6:12 AM ET, two-thirds of spread bets and 70% of the money were on Ohio State.

Iowa Moneyline (+450) is there for anyone who wants the outright upset instead. Know that this pick and the Under are built on the same Iowa defense. A 24-13 Ohio State win cashes both. A 35-14 Buckeye win loses both.

PICK #2: Under 45.5 (-110)

Iowa's offense hasn't moved the ball against a good defense, and both defenses in this game have held opponents far below what they score elsewhere.

In the 16-13 win over Iowa State and the 20-19 win at Michigan, the Hawkeyes ran for 93 and 58 yards and threw for 191 and 227. They got to the red zone twice in each game. On the other side of the ball, opponents have reached Iowa's red zone seven times all season and scored two touchdowns. Iowa hasn't allowed a rushing touchdown all season.

Ohio State's defense holds up its end. It allows 12.3 points a game, tied for ninth among 138 FBS teams. Ball State and Kent State got a field goal each, and opponents have three touchdowns on seven red-zone trips. Texas and Illinois scored 24 and 19 against it while averaging 36.3 and 39.0 in their other games. Defensive end Zion Grady missed the last two games and was cleared on Friday's report. One more detail from Austin: the Buckeyes led 23-3 after three quarters and didn't score again.

At -110 the Under implies 52.4% (consensus as of 6:12 AM ET). Grab 46 if you see it anywhere.

The market leans the other way. The total opened at 44.5 and is up a point, and 68% of the money was on the Over as of 6:12 AM ET. Every Ohio State game has gone over 45.5, the Texas game included, which got to 47 because Texas scored 21 in the fourth quarter. Illinois piled up 462 yards on the Buckeyes last week, and Michigan had 429 against Iowa. Sayin to Smith is the best passing combination Iowa has faced, Brown is out of the secondary, and Iowa has already scored on a punt return and a kickoff return. A 31-17 game goes over. Weather won't help either side: sunny, about 65 degrees at kickoff, a light south wind and no rain in the forecast.

If you think Ohio State scores here the way it has everywhere else, Over 45.5 (-110) is the play, and it's the opposite opinion from this one. The Under and Iowa +14 come from the same read, so expect them to go together.

PICK #3: Ja'Kobi Jackson Anytime Touchdown (+145)

This is the pick that cashes if Ohio State's offense does to Iowa what it has done to everyone else. Ja'Kobi Jackson, the No. 2 back, has scored in all four games.

He has five rushing touchdowns on 31 carries, half the team's 10. Bo Jackson, the lead back, has two on 50 carries. Inside the 20, Ja'Kobi owns four of Ohio State's eight rushing scores, on runs of 8, 11, 1 and 2 yards. His carries by game: 8, 5, 8, 10.

The timing of those touchdowns is the catch. Three came with the game already over: a 49-yard run that made it 42-3 against Ball State, a 1-yarder for 42-0 against Kent State, and a 2-yarder with 2:36 left against Illinois. The other two came early in games that were still open, an 8-yard run in the first quarter at Texas and the first score against Kent State. That's one touchdown in a close game against a power-conference opponent.

+145 as of 6:13 AM ET implies 40.8%.

The matchup works against him. Nobody has run for a touchdown against it, and opponents have scored touchdowns on just 2 of 7 red-zone trips. It allows 2.7 yards a carry overall and 3.9 against Iowa State and Michigan. In the one close game Ohio State has played, at Texas, Bo Jackson got 19 carries and Ja'Kobi got five. Smith has seven touchdown catches, four from inside the 20, and right tackle Daniels is out for a third straight game. This assumes both Jacksons play. Neither is on Friday's report, but if Bo Jackson gets ruled out, the role and the price both change, so don't bet it at this number in that case.

Bo Jackson (-155) is the option if you'd rather back the starter. This pick mostly cuts against the first two: Ja'Kobi's likeliest touchdown comes with Ohio State well ahead, and that's the game where Iowa +14 and the Under lose. All three can hit at 24-13 if one of the three Buckeye touchdowns is his. If you hold all three, think of this one as a hedge on the other two.

21+ (18+ where permitted). Odds subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.