Ohio State vs. Illinois Best Picks

Top-ranked Ohio State (5-0) heads to Champaign to face No. 17 Illinois (5-1) in a Big Ten showdown. The Buckeyes have steamrolled opponents behind a defense allowing just five points per game, but this trip could be their trickiest test yet.

Illinois is unbeaten at home and boasts one of the nation’s most efficient passing attacks, led by veteran quarterback Luke Altmyer. Meanwhile, Ohio State first-year starter Julian Sayin has looked like a vet, completing over 80% of his throws while directing an offense that rarely makes mistakes.

The Illini will try to replicate their upset of USC from earlier in the year, this time by slowing the tempo and forcing the Buckeyes to play long, patient drives. Ohio State remains a 14.5-point favorite, but Illinois’ experience and style could keep things tight.

Ohio State vs. Illinois Predictions

• Pick #1 – Side: Illinois +14.5 (−110)
• Pick #2 – Total: Under 49.5 (−110)
• Pick #3 – Player Prop: Julian Sayin Over 24.5 Completions (−115)

Pick #1: Illinois +14.5 (−110)

Ohio State’s dominance has been obvious, but this spread feels inflated for a road game against a ranked opponent that knows exactly how to shorten contests. Illinois has covered five of six and ranks fifth nationally in turnover margin (+7), which is a key metric against an Ohio State defense that thrives on field position.

The Buckeyes’ unit is elite: 215.8 yards allowed per game (3rd FBS), but Illinois’ precision passing under Altmyer can create sustained drives. He’s completing 73.6% of his throws and hasn’t thrown an interception through six games. If Illinois can stay ahead of schedule with short gains and limit third-and-longs, the offense can bleed clock and stay within striking distance.

Ohio State’s last comparable road trip, at Washington, ended 24-6 in a methodical win where the Buckeyes never truly pulled away. Expect a similar flow here: steady Ohio State control without the scoreboard explosion. With the hook at +14.5, Illinois offers value.

Pick #2: Under 49.5 (−110)

Every indicator points toward a lower-scoring game. Ohio State allows only 20% third-down conversions (second best in the country) and has the nation’s No. 1 red-zone defense (33% scoring rate). Illinois isn’t built for quick strikes and sits 84th in red-zone offense, converting 82.8% of trips but often for field goals.

That combination screams Under. Illinois knows the longer it keeps Ohio State’s offense on the sideline, the better. Expect long possessions, clock-chewing runs, with help from the Illinois running back room and plenty of underneath throws from Altmyer. On the other side, the Buckeyes are likely to mimic their conservative approach against Washington, with underneath tosses creating efficient passing from Sayin, minimal tempo and trust in the defense.

Even if Ohio State controls the game, points will come slowly. Illinois’ home tempo numbers are among the slowest in the Big Ten.

Pick #3: Julian Sayin Over 24.5 Completions (−115)

Sayin’s efficiency has been the story of Ohio State’s season. The true freshman has completion lines of 25-of-32, 22-of-28, and 23-of-27 over his past three games, and leads the nation at 80.2% accuracy.

Illinois’ defense is banged up, especially in the secondary, where the absence of star DB Xavier Scott has forced them into softer zone looks. That scheme will force Sayin to take what’s available underneath, inflating his completion total even if explosive plays are limited. Running back Bo Jackson faces a respectable Illini front, meaning Ohio State may lean heavily on quick-hitting throws to move the chains. Expect frequent targets for Jeremiah Smith and Carnell Tate, turning the passing game into an extension of the run.

A stat line around 26-to-30 completions on high efficiency feels likely, making the Over a strong prop angle.