Notre Dame vs Miami Picks - August 31

Week 1 of the 2025 college football season brings us one of the most anticipated showdowns of the year when No. 6 Notre Dame travels south to face No. 10 Miami at Hard Rock Stadium on Sunday night (7:30 PM ET, ABC). 

Notre Dame leads the all-time series 18-8-1, but the last meeting in Miami Gardens was a 41-8 Hurricanes rout back in 2017. From a betting perspective, this matchup offers angles on the spread, total and player props. Here are my three favorite plays for Sunday night.

Notre Dame vs Miami Predictions

Pick #1: Notre Dame Fighting Irish -2.5 over Miami Hurricanes (-110) Click Here to Bet

Pick #2: Under 50.5 total points (-120) Click Here to Bet

Pick #3: Mark Fletcher Jr. (Miami) 59+ rushing yards (-103) Click Here to Bet

PICK #1: Notre Dame -2.5 over Miami (-110)

Notre Dame enters this game with continuity, depth and the momentum of a 2024 season that ended in the national championship game. Head coach Marcus Freeman has built a disciplined, resilient culture, and his roster is loaded with proven talent on both sides of the ball.

The big storyline is under center: redshirt freshman CJ Carr makes his first career start after edging out Kenny Minchey in camp. While untested, Carr inherits one of the nation’s deepest supporting casts. Doak Walker Award candidate Jeremiyah Love headlines a backfield that also features Jadarian Price and Aneyas Williams, all running behind a talented, reliable offensive line. On the outside, transfers Malachi Fields (Virginia) and Will Pauling (Wisconsin) join rising talents Jordan Faison and Jaden Greathouse, giving Carr plenty of options in the passing game.

Defensively, Notre Dame boasts one of the top secondaries in college football. Leonard Moore, Christian Gray and Adon Shuler all return, while Alabama transfer DeVonta Smith bolsters the nickel. This group should match up well against a Miami offense that’s still building chemistry. The Hurricanes turned to Georgia transfer Carson Beck to replace Cam Ward, but Beck’s tenure in Athens was inconsistent. Now he’s tasked with leading a new receiving corps against a polished Notre Dame coverage unit. 

Miami’s strength lies in its front seven, led by Rueben Bain and Akheem Mesidor, but their secondary is almost entirely rebuilt with transfers. That’s a tough ask in Week 1 against a team with Notre Dame’s balance.

Ultimately, this game comes down to coaching and execution. Freeman’s preparation and in-game decision-making provide a clear edge over Mario Cristobal, whose game-management miscues have been costly in the past. With the spread sitting under a field goal, the Irish are the safer play.

PICK #2: Under 50.5 Total Points (-120)

Both defenses are strong enough to dictate the flow of this game, and Week 1 often favors defenses as offenses work through timing and chemistry issues.

Notre Dame will lean on the ground game and short, controlled passing to ease Carr into his first start. That means long, clock-draining drives rather than explosive plays. Miami’s defensive line has the talent to disrupt the Irish up front, especially if Love isn’t fully 100 percent, which should limit Notre Dame’s scoring ceiling.

On the other side, Miami’s offense features plenty of new faces. Beck has the arm talent, but he has yet to prove he can thrive against elite defenses, and he’ll be tested immediately by Notre Dame’s secondary. The Hurricanes may prefer to establish the run with Mark Fletcher Jr., which should chew additional clock.

The blueprint here feels like a conservative, grind-it-out contest where possessions are valuable, drives stall in the red zone and both defenses force stretches of consecutive punts. A 21-17 or 24-20 type of score fits this matchup well, landing comfortably under the posted total of 50.5.

PICK #3: Mark Fletcher Jr. (Miami) 59+ Rushing Yards (-103)

While most of the spotlight is on Jeremiyah Love and Notre Dame’s backfield, Miami has a rising star in junior running back Mark Fletcher Jr. Last year, Fletcher ran for 607 yards and 9 touchdowns on 112 carries, splitting time behind Damien Martinez. As the season progressed, his workload increased, and he closed with 62 yards and a touchdown in Miami’s bowl game against Iowa State.

Now elevated to RB1, Fletcher is expected to be a focal point of the Hurricanes’ offense. In 2024, he surpassed 59 rushing yards in 5 of 6 games where he logged 10 or more carries. With Beck still settling into Miami’s system and Notre Dame’s secondary creating tough passing matchups, the Hurricanes should emphasize the run early and often.

Notre Dame’s defense is strongest on the back end, and while their front seven is physical, it isn’t quite as dominant as the secondary. That makes Fletcher the logical path of attack for Miami. Volume plus talent equals opportunity, and at 59+ yards, his rushing prop is very achievable given the expected game script.