North Carolina vs TCU Picks 8/29

North Carolina vs TCU Picks 8/29

After a long and eventful offseason, the 2026 college football season is finally here, and we have a fascinating slate of Week 0 action to start the campaign. One of the marquee games on Saturday’s smaller slate will get the action started in Dublin, Ireland, when the North Carolina Tar Heels take on the TCU Horned Frogs in a rematch from last season’s Week 1 matchup that saw TCU embarrass North Carolina to start Bill Belichick’s tenure in Chapel Hill. With this ACC vs. Big 12 rematch nearly upon us, it’s time to dive into our expert’s college football predictions and best bets for this showdown. 

Predictions

Pick #1 - TCU Horned Frogs -8.5 over North Carolina Tar Heels (-115)

Pick #2 - Under 47.5 (-115)

Pick #3 - Demon June (UNC) over 48.5 rushing yards (-113) 

PICK #1: TCU -8.5 over North Carolina (-115)

There is inherently a bit more variance than normal when handicapping Week 0 games, and that is certainly the case in this matchup. On one hand, TCU is a team with a lot of potential on paper, but the Horned Frogs have had some concerning things emerge from their fall camp, including an alleged instance of a defensive back punching a teammate — leading to his dismissal from the team. 

The good news for Sonny Dykes’ squad is they’ll be playing a North Carolina team that has dealt with all kinds of dysfunction throughout the offseason, punctuated by defensive coordinator Steve Belichick being away from the team on medical leave. Jaden Craig was one of the best quarterbacks in the FCS a season ago, and he’ll have plenty of playmakers to spread the ball around to in this TCU offense. On the other side, new Tar Heels quarterback Billy Edwards has struggled against Power Four competition in his career, a trend that should continue against what should be an improved TCU defense.   

Ultimately, it’s difficult to have strong conviction on the side in this game, but TCU holds some inherent advantages on both sides of the ball that point me in the direction of the Horned Frogs.        

PICK #2: Under 47.5 (-115)

Compared to playing a side in this game, our expert has a bit more conviction in targeting the under at the current number. We can typically count on TCU to produce good offenses year over year, but there could be some growing pains for Craig and company in the season opener against a North Carolina defense that ranks inside the top 40 in returning production per SP+. In that same vein, this is the first game for Edwards in this new system, and it’s hard to expect him to lead a productive offense against a TCU defense that should have one of the better fronts in the Big 12 this season. 

Finally, the weather in this game is certainly a factor, as plenty of rain and wind is expected in the forecast for Saturday. Each of the previous three games in this annual series have stayed under this total, so let’s target that trend to continue in this one. 

PICK #3: Demon June (UNC) over 48.5 rushing yards (-115)

Given the projected forecast and the uncertainty around both teams heading into this matchup, targeting a rushing prop seems to be the best way to attack the prop market. North Carolina shouldn’t want to get into a shootout with an offense of TCU’s caliber, so our expert is projecting a heavy dose of running the football from the Tar Heels on Saturday. That’s where Demon June comes in, as the new starting running back for North Carolina should build on the flashes of excellence he showed as a freshman. We can expect a heavy workload for Jude in the rain, and it wouldn’t be a shock if he broke off a couple of big runs to clear this number earlier than expected.