New Mexico vs. Nevada Prediction, CFB Week 10 Odds & Best Bets (11/6)

Fact checked at 7:58 AM ET, Nov 6, 2026

Odds as of 7:54 AM ET, Nov 6, 2026

No. 22 New Mexico (7-1, 4-0 Mountain West) visits Nevada (3-5, 2-2) tonight at 9:00 PM ET at Mackay Stadium in Reno. The Lobos are ranked for the first time in school history, and Nevada hasn't hosted a ranked team since Arizona in 2015. New Mexico won last year's meeting 24-22.

Expect a grind. New Mexico allows 11.9 points per game, the best scoring defense in the country, but its offense has scored exactly 21 in three straight games and now plays without starting center Kaden Robnett, who is out for the season. Nevada is down to its backup quarterback, with Carter Jones listed out and AJ Bianco expected to start. Our read is a low-scoring game where the Lobos run the ball, burn clock and win by less than double digits, and that game wins both bets. The forecast is dry and calm, in the mid-50s at kickoff, so the weather shouldn't matter much.

New Mexico vs. Nevada Predictions

• Pick #1: Nevada +10 (-108)
• Pick #2: Under 38.5 (-112)

PICK #1: Nevada +10 (-108)

New Mexico has become a running team that can't throw. The Lobos ran for 243, 187 and 231 yards in their last three games and passed for 94, 92 and 111. Toa Fa'avae has six interceptions and one touchdown pass over that stretch, and the team has seven giveaways in those games. That formula wins 21-16, which is how two of the three ended. It isn't built to pull away.

Nevada's defense keeps this close. The Wolf Pack held UCLA to 303 yards, 125 of them on the ground, last week. The 27-0 final was about the offense, which threw four interceptions. Luke Duncan threw three of them before Bianco came in, and Bianco threw none. Nevada has covered a 10-point number in five of its eight games, including one-score losses to Middle Tennessee and Air Force.

This line opened at 12.5 and was down to 10 within a day, and 75% of the spread money is on Nevada from 59% of the bets. At -108 the price implies a 51.9% chance.

Turnovers are the risk. New Mexico leads the nation at plus-17 with an FBS-high 17 interceptions, and Nevada is last at minus-13. If Bianco hands the Lobos short fields, 10 points won't be enough.

PICK #2: Under 38.5 (-112)

The same game stays under this number. New Mexico's last three games finished with 31, 37 and 37 total points. Nevada's offense hasn't been the same without Jones and tight end DJ Asiasi, who was lost for the season against UTEP. The Wolf Pack averaged 212.2 rushing yards and 5.4 a carry in their first five games, then 91.7 yards and 2.8 a carry in the three since. Now they face a defense that, as Nevada coach Jeff Choate put it, will "harass the heck out of" the quarterback.

A New Mexico offense that has run it 43 to 48 times in each of its last three games keeps the clock moving, and four of the two teams' last six games combined finished under 38.5. The total opened in the low 40s and has fallen to 38.5, with 85% of the money on the Under from 64% of the bets.

At -112 the Under implies a 52.8% chance. The full season is less kind: only six of the two teams' 16 games stayed under 38.5, and New Mexico put up 61 on UTEP and 42 at New Mexico State earlier in the year. One defensive or return touchdown can push a game like this over by itself, and both quarterbacks are expected starters, not confirmed ones.

21+ (18+ where permitted). Odds subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.