New Mexico State vs. FIU Prediction, CFB Week 6 Odds & Best Bets (10/7)

Fact checked at 7:51 AM ET, Oct 7, 2026

Odds as of Oct 7, 7:06 AM ET; Pick #2 price as of 7:36 AM ET

FIU opens Conference USA play at 2-2. New Mexico State comes in 2-3 overall and 1-0 in the league after beating Western Kentucky 34-13 last Thursday, and it did that with a new quarterback. Trey Hedden started the first four games and threw two interceptions in each of his last two starts, so Adam Damante took over, and coach Tony Sanchez has said Damante starts again. On the other side, JJ Kohl played only the first half against LIU on Sep 26 before a knee sprain, reported as a grade-one MCL sprain. He practiced during the off week and is reported as the starter on FIU's depth chart, but no game status has been posted.

FIU's offense is an odd one. It ranks first in Conference USA in total offense and last in scoring, and it has turned only 35.7% of its red-zone trips into touchdowns. So we're betting FIU's yards, not its points, and Kohl and Maguire Anderson draw a New Mexico State secondary that has struggled with teams willing to throw. The line opened FIU -4 on Saturday, Oct 3, and the consensus is now FIU -6.5 (-112) with a total of 46.5. No dated report explains the move. Kohl's knee is the question of the week, and both picks below assume he starts.

Kickoff is Wednesday at 7:30 PM ET at Pitbull Stadium in Miami, on ESPN2. FIU had 10 days off. New Mexico State played six days ago and flies roughly 1,650 miles from Las Cruces. The forecast calls for about 82 degrees and a light southwest wind, with a chance of showers and thunderstorms around kickoff that drops off later in the evening.

New Mexico State vs. FIU Predictions

• Pick #1: Maguire Anderson 76+ Receiving Yards (-106)
• Pick #2: JJ Kohl 260+ Passing Yards (-121)

PICK #1: Maguire Anderson 76+ Receiving Yards (-106)

In the three games Kohl finished, Anderson went for 87 yards at USF, 98 against Buffalo and 139 at FAU. That clears 76 by 11, 22 and 63. The one miss was LIU, where Kohl left at halftime, and Anderson still had 58 yards on three catches. He leads Conference USA at 95.5 receiving yards a game, and catch totals of 8, 5, 8 and 3 say the volume is real.

New Mexico State's secondary has given up 300-yard passing games to both FBS opponents that threw 40 or more times against it. Western Kentucky's quarterback went 30 of 41 for 315 last week. Hawaii's went 33 of 45 for 346. New Mexico and Florida State threw less and ran for 253 and 217 instead. The top receiver in those four games finished with 108, 107, 102 and 54 yards, and the Aggies allow 242.8 passing yards a game, third-worst in the conference. FIU's defense helps here too. It hasn't allowed more than 108 rushing yards in any game, and if it slows James Jones, New Mexico State has to throw to keep up, which hands FIU's offense more snaps.

A -106 price puts the implied chance at 51.5%.

What could go wrong: New Mexico State has 12 sacks in five games, third in the league per game, and FIU coach Willie Simmons has said he wants his backs running straight downhill. JoJo Stone had 106 yards against Buffalo, and receiver Kyle McNeal may return, so targets could spread out. For a lower rung, 70+ is -133.

PICK #2: JJ Kohl 260+ Passing Yards (-121)

Kohl attempted 50, 36 and 43 passes in his three full games and threw for 301, 367 and 262, clearing 260 each time. Even with only one half against LIU in his average, he is second in Conference USA at 266.3 passing yards a game. FIU has the league's second-ranked passing offense, and its line has allowed three sacks all season, the fewest in the conference.

Anderson's case is Kohl's case. Western Kentucky threw for 315 against this defense and Hawaii's quarterback for 346, and FIU's run game, at 124 yards a game, isn't built to sit on a lead. The -121 price implies 54.8%.

This one has less room. Kohl cleared 260 at FAU by two yards, and it took 50 attempts to reach 301 at USF. His six interceptions lead Conference USA, New Mexico State has three defensive touchdowns, and a comfortable lead could turn FIU toward the run. Taking 250+ at -150 buys some cushion.

Both picks need Kohl on the field and throwing, so they will usually win or lose together. If he doesn't start, skip both.

21+ (18+ where permitted). Odds subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.