Navy vs Memphis Thanksgiving Best Picks 11/27

Navy vs Memphis Thanksgiving Best Picks 11/27

Navy travels to Memphis on Thanksgiving night for a nationally televised game at Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium. Kickoff is set for 7:30 PM ET on ESPN, with both teams entering at eight wins yet somehow sitting outside the conference title picture. 

The American has become one of the most chaotic leagues in the country, and the best Group of Five league. While Navy sits at 6-1 in conference play, they still need help from Tulane or North Texas to slip into the championship game. Memphis – once ranked No. 22 after an electric 6-0 start – has fallen out of the race after back-to-back losses, but now comes off a bye with a chance to finish 9-3 and re-establish momentum heading into bowl season. 

Navy vs Memphis Predictions

Pick #1: Memphis Tigers -5 over Navy Midshipmen (-110) Click Here to Bet

Pick #2: Over 58.5 (-105) Click Here to Bet

Pick #3: Brendon Lewis Over 249.5 Passing Yards (-115) Click Here to Bet

Pick #1: Memphis -5 over Navy (-110) Click Here to Bet

Memphis’ bye allowed for a chance to get healthier and, just as importantly, extra time to prepare for Navy’s triple-option. That preparation window is invaluable, especially for a Memphis defense that is built to stop the run first. The Tigers allow just 127.4 rushing yards per game, ranking 37th nationally, and their best defensive performances of the season have come against run-heavy teams. Even in their upset win over Arkansas earlier this year, they held the Razorbacks to 175 yards at 5.5 yards per carry (solid numbers against an SEC rushing offense with a dual-threat quarterback), while allowing most of the damage through the air. That matters against a Navy offense that simply cannot replicate that balance. The Midshipmen rank 130th in passing and rely almost entirely on the triple-action attack, spearheaded by Blake Horvath’s reads and QB-driven run game.

The matchup tilts further toward Memphis when viewed through Navy’s defensive weaknesses. The Midshipmen rank 121st nationally in passing yards allowed per game and have been repeatedly shredded through the air. Over the last three weeks they’ve given up 327 passing yards to South Florida’s Byrum Brown, 218 yards and three touchdowns on just 16 attempts to Notre Dame’s CJ Carr and 234 yards on 19-of-24 passing to North Texas. 

Factor in Memphis’ elite +8 turnover margin, top-five red zone offense and home-field advantage following two weeks to reset, and the Tigers are in prime position to control this game from start to finish.

Pick #2: Over 58.5 (-105) Click Here to Bet

The total sits high for a reason, and the matchup still should go over. Navy games have been high-scoring all season, with all but three clearing this number. The Navy defense simply gives up too many explosive plays, allowing nearly 410 yards per game and ranking outside the top 100 in both passing defense and scoring defense. Meanwhile, Memphis averages 36.2 points per game, top-20 nationally, and has quietly become one of the most efficient red zone offenses in the country – scoring on 95.6 percent of trips.

Memphis should score with ease, but Navy’s offense should also contribute. The Tigers rank 70th nationally on third-down defense, allowing nearly 40 percent conversions.  With both teams ranking in the top 25 in time of possession, long, sustained drives should dominate the game, but those drives are likely to end in points more often than not. The matchup trends, recent performance and defensive vulnerabilities all point toward the over.

Pick #3: Brendon Lewis Over 249.5 Passing Yards (-115) Click Here to Bet

The extra rest for Memphis quarterback Brendon Lewis could not have come at a better time. Even while playing through lingering soreness, Lewis has been one of the most efficient quarterbacks in the conference over the last month. He threw for 307 yards and two touchdowns against South Florida, posted a near-perfect 18-of-22 line for 225 yards against Rice, completed 29 of 34 passes for 317 yards in the loss to Tulane, and last time out, went 32 of 43 for 209 yards against East Carolina. Now he gets a defense that has been consistently torched through the air and has shown no signs of correcting its issues.

Navy’s secondary allows 263.9 passing yards per game and has struggled against every competent passing attack it has faced. With Cortez Braham’s ability to stretch the field, Lewis’ accuracy in the intermediate game and Memphis’ top-five red zone conversion rate, this sets up as a matchup in which Lewis clears 249.5 passing yards. The Tigers should be aggressive early and often, and the game flow projects to give Lewis 30-35 attempts with plenty of explosive opportunities.