Missouri vs. Ole Miss Prediction, CFB Week 7 Odds & Best Bets (10/17)

Fact checked at 6:51 AM ET, Oct 17, 2026

Odds as of Oct 17, 6:44 AM ET

No. 13 Missouri (5-1) is the hotter team coming into Oxford. The Tigers have won their last two by a combined 72-23, a 45-17 rout of Florida and a 27-6 win over Texas A&M. No. 9 Ole Miss (4-1) lost 52-28 at that same Florida team a week before Missouri flattened it, then bounced back with a 52-17 win at Vanderbilt.

Missouri wins by running the ball and stopping the run. Texas A&M managed 27 rushing yards against the Tigers last week, Florida 42 the week before. Ole Miss, meanwhile, has given up at least 103 on the ground in all five games, including 302 at Florida. Quarterback Austin Simmons, who used to play for Ole Miss, is off the injury report.

The line has come Missouri's way. Ole Miss opened as a 7.5-point favorite on Oct 7 and is down to 5.5, while the total hasn't moved off 58.5. This game runs through Jamal Roberts: if he gets his carries against this run defense, Missouri keeps it inside one score. SEC Network has the 3:30 PM ET kickoff at Vaught-Hemingway Stadium.

Missouri vs. Ole Miss Predictions

• Pick #1: Jamal Roberts 120+ Rushing Yards (-113)
• Pick #2: Missouri +5.5 (-115)

PICK #1: Jamal Roberts 120+ Rushing Yards (-113)

Roberts gets the ball, a lot. He ran 34 times for 222 yards against Texas A&M and 24 times for 211 against Florida, and before that put up 128 on 22 carries against Troy and 125 on 28 at Kansas. That's 120 or more in four of his last five games. No other Missouri back has topped 10 carries in any of them, and with Ahmad Hardy and Malae Fonoti still listed out, the backfield is his.

Next up is a run defense that hasn't held anyone under 103 yards. Ole Miss allowed 162 rushing yards to Louisville, 143 to Charlotte, 172 to LSU, 302 to Florida and 103 at Vanderbilt.

The 120 rung is the better buy. The 100 rung costs -198, and every time Roberts cleared 100 in this stretch he cleared 120 too, so -113 (a 53.1% break-even) pays far better for a mark he reached in those same four games. His one miss was 95 yards in the 31-24 loss at Mississippi State, Missouri's only defeat. His blockers are the question: offensive linemen Josh Atkins and Khalief Canty Jr. are both listed out.

PICK #2: Missouri +5.5 (-115)

A big Roberts day means Missouri is keeping the ball and the clock, and that's how a 5.5-point underdog stays close. The Tigers have allowed 6, 17, 31, 17 and 21 points in their last five games, while Ole Miss has given up 28 per game. The one opponent they share says plenty: Missouri beat Florida by 28, and Ole Miss lost to the Gators by 24.

The number has already dropped two points from the opener. At -115 the break-even is 53.5%, and more than a field goal is plenty with the team that runs the ball and stops the run better.

21+ (18+ where permitted). Odds subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.