Missouri vs Alabama picks - October 26
The Missouri Tigers and Alabama Crimson Tide will meet in Tuscaloosa in a highly-anticipated SEC showdown on Saturday, October 26, 2024. The kickoff at Bryant-Denny Stadium is set for 3:30 PM ET, with the game broadcast live on ABC. This clash features a couple of teams on their heels following difficult losses suffered in the last few weeks. However, neither team is completely out of the SEC title and College Football Playoff race, so this game is extremely important for both sides.
With both teams looking to make a statement and halt the negative momentum around their respective programs, let’s dive into our expert’s predictions and best bets for this pivotal SEC matchup.
Missouri vs Alabama Predictions
Pick #1: Missouri Tigers +17 over Alabama Crimson Tide (-110)
Pick #2: Under 51.5 (-110)
Pick #3: Ryan Williams anytime touchdown scorer (+140)
Pick #1: Missouri +17 over Alabama (-110)
Both of these teams have greatly underperformed compared to preseason expectations. On one side, Alabama is having a rough go of things in the post-Saban era, and they simply cannot lose again if they hope to make the new 12-team College Football Playoff. With a trip to Death Valley looming, Kalen DeBoer’s team really needs a victory this week.
As for the visitors, Missouri is about as shaky of a 6-1 team as you can find, and it doesn’t help matters that starting quarterback Brady Cook is doubtful for this game after suffering an ankle injury against Auburn a week ago. The good news for the Tigers is they still should be able to keep this one somewhat close thanks to a defense that is seventh in success rate allowed and fifth in third and fourth-down success this season.
We can expect Missouri head coach Eli Drinkwitz to utilize a run-heavy game plan that will focus on grinding things down and keeping this matchup just close enough to cover this number. Even though the Crimson Tide are playing against a backup quarterback at home, this number is still a bit too inflated based on what we’ve seen from Bama recently. Take the Tigers to keep this one respectable.
Pick #2: Under 51.5 (-110)
The projected total suggests that this will be a lower-scoring affair compared to most big SEC games this season, and it’s easy to see why. On one hand, Alabama’s offense has been a major source of concern around the program, as Jalen Milroe has struggled mightily in the passing game. That task won’t get any easier on Saturday against a Missouri pass defense that is 24th in passing success rate allowed and 13th in points per scoring opportunity.
Alabama’s defense should also dominate in finishing drives, as Missouri’s offense is 95th in points per quality possession and 64th in points per drive per College Football Insiders. The Crimson Tide certainly have issues with penalties and a lack of discipline, but this is still the top defense in the nation in passing success rate allowed and a top 20 unit in EPA per rush, EPA per dropback and early downs EPA.
Even if Alabama ends up covering the double-digit spread, that will likely mean that Missouri has gone well under its team total and the Crimson Tide were probably able to take their foot off the gas a bit in the fourth quarter of this game. With that in mind, the under has value at the current number.
Pick #3: Ryan Williams anytime touchdown scorer (-105)
This is a contrarian play given that the under is also the recommended side for this contest. However, Alabama is so dependent on Ryan Williams in the passing game that he’s the most likely receiver to record a touchdown in this game.
Williams is having an excellent season thus far for the Crimson Tide, tallying nearly 649 yards and seven touchdowns for the campaign. Williams obviously has clear chemistry with Milroe, as shown by the double-digit targets he received against Tennessee in the loss on the road a week ago. Look for that to continue again in a must-win game for this Alabama team. At these odds, it’s difficult to turn down the value Williams has as the Crimson Tide’s top receiver in the red zone.
