Mississippi State vs. LSU Prediction, CFB Week 7 Odds & Best Bets (10/17)

Fact checked at 6:51 AM ET, Oct 17, 2026

Odds as of Oct 17, 6:50 AM ET

Mississippi State walks into Tiger Stadium at 4-1, and the quarterback who built that record is expected to watch. Kamario Taylor has thrown for 1,450 yards and 17 touchdowns, but he hurt his foot against Missouri, played through it in the 56-23 loss to Alabama on Oct 3 and left that game in the fourth quarter. The SEC availability report moved him from questionable to doubtful on Friday, and multiple reports that day had freshman Parker "Billy" Puckett in line for his first start. Puckett has thrown 14 passes all season, all in mop-up time against Louisiana-Monroe and Alabama. Leading rusher Fluff Bothwell (403 yards) is also doubtful.

That leaves LSU's offense facing a team that may not be able to keep pace. LSU is 4-2 and coming off a 35-34 overtime loss at Kentucky, but its four wins came by 41, 31, 29 and 49 points. The market moved hard on the Taylor news: LSU is now -17.5, at least five points past where it opened, and the total has dropped from 59.5 to 55.5.

Everything here rides on LSU being in control and finishing drives. Kickoff is 12:00 PM ET on ESPN, and the National Weather Service expects sun, temperatures in the mid-60s and a northeast wind around 15 mph.

Mississippi State vs. LSU Predictions

• Pick #1: LSU -17.5 (-110)
• Pick #2: Landen Clark Anytime Touchdown (+220)

PICK #1: LSU -17.5 (-110)

When LSU has won, it has won big: Clemson 51-10, Louisiana Tech 45-14, Texas A&M 35-6 and McNeese 63-14. Both losses came on the road, 32-24 at Ole Miss and 35-34 in overtime at Kentucky.

Mississippi State scored 39 points a game with Taylor, who threw for between 227 and 360 yards every time out. A freshman making his first start in Baton Rouge isn't getting near that, and the run game won't bail him out. Against Alabama the Bulldogs ran 30 times for 18 yards. Kolin Wilson and Xavier Gayten combined for 37 yards on 20 carries, and Bothwell got one carry.

The -110 price implies 52.4%, and the money leans the same way, with 69% of the spread dollars on 61% of the tickets.

LSU hasn't been a reliable cover lately: one win against the number in its last five, with three losses and a push. Its defense is also missing linebackers Whit Weeks and Charles Ross II and safety Dashawn Spears, with linebacker Tylen Singleton doubtful, and Mississippi State is coming off a bye while LSU played overtime on the road. This pick is built on Taylor sitting.

PICK #2: Landen Clark Anytime Touchdown (+220)

Sam Leavitt starts at quarterback for LSU, but backup Landen Clark has a short-yardage package and gets the late snaps in blowouts, and between the two he has run for four touchdowns in LSU's last five games. He had 3 carries for 19 yards and a 7-yard score against Louisiana Tech, 9 carries for 41 yards and touchdowns from 4 and 2 yards against Texas A&M, and 3 carries for 11 yards and a 3-yard score against McNeese. His two blanks were the road losses: no carries at Ole Miss and one carry for no gain at Kentucky.

So Clark gets the goal-line work in games LSU controls, and Mississippi State's front is thin, with linebackers Zakari Tillman and Jalen Smith and defensive linemen Trevion Williams and Diesel Moye all out. A freshman quarterback handing LSU short fields means more snaps inside the 5.

Dilin Jones and Leavitt can take those carries, which is why both are priced far shorter to score. Clark has scored in three of six games, and +220 asks for only a 31.2% chance.

21+ (18+ where permitted). Odds subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.