Michigan vs Illinois picks - October 19

On Saturday, October 19th, the #24 Michigan Wolverines (4-2) head to Memorial Stadium in Champaign to take on the #22 Illinois Fighting Illini (5-1) in a critical Big Ten matchup. With a 3:30 p.m. ET kickoff, both teams look to bolster their records as conference play intensifies. Michigan, the defending national champion, is coming off a tough road loss to Washington, while Illinois hopes to build on its solid season and pull off another marquee win.

Predictions

Pick #1: Illinois Fighting Illini +3.5 over Michigan Wolverines (-120)

Pick #2: Under 43.5 (-110)

Pick #3: Kalel Mullings or Donovan Edwards (MICH) Rushing Yards 

Pick #1: Illinois +3.5 over Michigan (-120)

This Big Ten showdown presents a compelling matchup between a Michigan team struggling to regain its 2023 dominance. The spread of +3.5 for Illinois looks appealing given their performance this season. The Fighting Illini have proven their mettle against tough competition, securing wins over then-ranked opponents like Kansas and Nebraska. Despite their 21-7 loss to now #3 Penn State, Illinois' defense showed resilience, holding the Nittany Lions to just 21 points, with the game tied 7-7 until midway through the third quarter. Illinois has been excellent against the spread (4-1-1), especially as underdogs.

Michigan, on the other hand, has been underwhelming this year, struggling to find consistency on offense, now with its third quarterback of the season, Jack Tuttle. While Michigan's defense remains solid, their offensive woes are apparent. They rank 133rd nationally in passing yards per attempt, making them heavily reliant on their run game. 

Illinois’ defensive vulnerability against the rush is a concern (107th in EPA vs the run) against a run-heavy Michigan offense led by Kalel Mullings and Donovan Edwards. However, Michigan’s pass defense has also been vulnerable, and now has to go up against Illinois’ Luke Altmeyer – who has totaled 1,426 passing yards, 14 touchdown passes and just one interception. Not to mention, Illinois features a great wide receiver duo in Pat Bryant and Zakhari Franklin.

Michigan’s 1-5 record against the spread highlights their struggles in covering this season, and Illinois’ home-field advantage could tilt the underdog spread in their favor. Back Illinois to keep it close and potentially even win outright. In the end, we will settle on a 20-17 Michigan win. 

Pick #2: Under 43.5 Total Points (-110) 

Both Michigan and Illinois have featured stout defenses this season. Illinois has been great against the pass, while Michigan has been stout against the run. Illinois has kept quarterbacks like Kansas' Jalon Daniels and Penn State's Drew Allar in check, allowing just 135 and 141 passing yards, respectively. Michigan has similarly relied on its defense to control games.

This has all the makings of a classic low-scoring Big Ten grind. Michigan’s offense has struggled to generate explosive plays, and they are averaging just 23.5 points per game. Illinois, while more efficient on offense, has also found itself in defensive battles, such as the 21-7 loss to Penn State. In addition, Michigan’s reliance on the ground game plays into Illinois’ strength in limiting passing attacks, which could further slow the pace.

Historically, Michigan has played to low totals in tough games, with totals of 43 and 44 against Texas and Washington, respectively. While Illinois has been in shootouts (e.g., their 50-49 win over Purdue), their defense tends to step up in bigger games. With both teams focused on defense and Michigan’s offensive inconsistencies, the under 43.5 is a strong play.

Pick #3: Kalel Mullings (MICH) over 81.5 rushing yards (-115) OR or Donovan Edwards (MICH) over 57.5 rushing yards (-115)

Kalel Mullings and Donovan Edwards are intriguing options to consider for rushing yardage totals. Michigan has leaned heavily on its ground game all season, and Mullings has emerged as the lead back. He’s accumulated 589 rushing yards and six touchdowns on 91 carries, averaging 6.5 yards per attempt. Edwards, sharing the workload, has 353 rushing yards and three touchdowns on the season.

Illinois has shown vulnerability against the run, allowing over 5.0 yards per carry to opposing backs, including big games from Penn State’s Kaytron Allen and Nick Singleton and Kansas’ Devin Neal. Mullings and Edwards should both have opportunities to put up significant yardage, with Michigan’s run-first game plan likely to target Illinois’ defensive weakness.

Mullings' bruising style and Edwards' explosive ability to break off big runs make either of these players a good bet to hit their rushing totals once the lines are posted. Expect Michigan to stick to the ground game, and with Illinois’ struggles against physical rushers, both Mullings and Edwards could have a big day.