Mavericks vs. Rockets Prediction, NBA Odds & Best Bets (10/21)

Fact checked at 7:47 AM ET, Oct 21, 2026

Odds as of Oct 21, 7:44 AM ET

Dallas went 26-56 last season and opens this one in Houston under a new head coach, Dusty May. Kyrie Irving is back after missing all of last season, and Zaccharie Risacher joins on the wing. The frontcourt is the problem: Dereck Lively II (right foot surgery), Santi Aldama (right knee surgery), Caleb Martin (right thumb sprain) and Tarik Biberovic (right heel) are all out on the league's injury report, and Jett Howard is questionable.

Houston went 52-30 and allowed 110.0 points a game. Fred VanVleet is back from the torn ACL that wiped out his whole season, Marcus Smart and Bogdan Bogdanovic have joined, and Ime Udoka has said he wants a 10-man rotation with less playing time for Kevin Durant and Amen Thompson than they had last season. Steven Adams and Julian Phillips are questionable. The Rockets are 8.5-point favorites, the total is 230.5, and tip-off is 8:30 PM ET Wednesday at Toyota Center.

We expect Houston's size and defense to control a thin Dallas frontcourt, with Sengun running the offense from the post and the score staying under the total. Something like 118-106 cashes both picks.

Mavericks vs. Rockets Predictions

• Pick #1: Under 230.5 (-110)
• Pick #2: Alperen Sengun Over 4.5 Assists (-148)

PICK #1: Under 230.5 (-110)

Houston's games last season averaged 225.2 total points, and only 29 of 82 went over 230.5. Its four meetings with Dallas finished at 212, 231, 214 and 218. One of the four would have beaten this number, by half a point.

Dallas has less to throw at that defense than it did a year ago. Lively, Aldama and Martin are out, Irving plays his first regular-season game since tearing his ACL in March 2025, and May is still sorting a rotation that went 1-3 in the preseason. On Houston's end, Udoka's 10-man plan trims Durant's and Thompson's minutes. It's a minutes plan rather than a promise of a slow game, but it puts more of the bench on the floor.

At -110 the Under implies 52.4%. Pace is the risk. Dallas played at the second-fastest pace in the league last season, Udoka has said VanVleet won't face a minutes restriction, and the two preseason meetings went for 252 and 247 points, though Houston rested Durant, Sengun and VanVleet in the second one. Most tickets are on the Over (80%), while the Under has drawn 40% of the money on 19% of the bets.

PICK #2: Alperen Sengun Over 4.5 Assists (-148)

Sengun had the best passing season of his career last year next to Durant: 6.2 assists a game, with five or more in 52 of his 72 games. Durant is still in Houston. What changes is VanVleet handling the ball again.

The preseason offered a first look at that group. In the two exhibitions where VanVleet and Durant both started beside him, Sengun had 10 assists in 22 minutes against Dallas on Oct 9 and 5 in 24 minutes against Oklahoma City on Oct 15. Two preseason games won't settle anything, but both came with the starting five Houston is expected to use, and he cleared this line in both while playing well under his usual 33 minutes.

The matchup helps. With Lively, Aldama and Martin out, Daniel Gafford, P.J. Washington and the rookie Morez Johnson Jr. take most of Dallas's frontcourt minutes against a center who scores and passes from the post. When Dallas sends help, that is how Houston's shooters get open.

The price is steep, and -148 implies 59.7%. The last season VanVleet ran the point, 2024-25, Sengun averaged 4.9 assists and got to five in 40 of 76 games, and Smart is one more ball handler. A Houston blowout could also cost him fourth-quarter minutes.

21+ (18+ where permitted). Odds subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.