Liberty vs. Kennesaw State Prediction, CFB Week 8 Odds & Best Bets (10/22)

Fact checked at 9:00 AM ET, Oct 22, 2026

Odds as of Oct 22, 8:56 AM ET

Liberty (5-1, 2-0 Conference USA) is rested after a bye week, has won five straight, and becomes bowl eligible with a win. Kennesaw State won Conference USA last year and has gone 1-5 this season, 0-2 in the league. Its last three losses were all by three points or fewer: 17-14 at Arkansas State, 27-26 to Jacksonville State and 24-21 at Missouri State.

Liberty is a 9.5-point favorite. The total has been bet up from the high 40s to 50.5, with 81% of the bets on the Over, and we think it went the wrong way. Liberty allows 15.3 points a game and has held four straight opponents to 17 or fewer. Kennesaw State scores 17.4 a game against FBS teams. The Flames run for 223 yards a game (15th in the country) and throw for 192.8 (105th). Of the 12 games these teams have played, eight finished under 50.5.

Makai Jackson is the exception in that Liberty offense, a receiver who doesn't need volume. He has 515 yards on 22 catches, and Kennesaw State has given up 300-plus passing yards in each of its last two games. So both picks come from the same game: Liberty wins a low-scoring grind, and Jackson collects his yards on a few deep balls. Deshawn Purdie and Rickie Collins have played quarterback in every game for their teams this season. The forecast is clear and in the high 60s at kickoff, with a light northwest wind. Kickoff is 7:00 PM ET at Walens Family Field at Fifth Third Stadium in Kennesaw.

Liberty vs. Kennesaw State Predictions

• Pick #1: Under 50.5 Total Points (-112)
• Pick #2: Makai Jackson 60+ Receiving Yards (-141)

PICK #1: Under 50.5 Total Points (-112)

Start with Liberty's defense. The Flames have allowed 20, 23, 15, 17, 14 and 3 points this season, 15.3 a game. Kennesaw State has scored 17, 9, 14, 26 and 21 against FBS teams. Its 47 points came against West Georgia, an FCS team.

Liberty doesn't speed games up, either. The Flames ran the ball 39 to 47 times in each of their four wins over FBS teams, and Purdie threw only 14 passes in the 35-3 win over Sam Houston. Liberty's games have totaled 33, 47, 66, 51, 44 and 38 points. Kennesaw State's have totaled 47, 48, 51, 31, 53 and 45. Each team has gone over 50.5 twice in six tries. Most of the bets have landed on the Over as the number climbed, which leaves more room under it, and -112 only asks for a 52.8% win rate.

What could beat it is this series. Kennesaw State won the last two meetings, 27-24 at home in 2024 and 48-42 in double overtime in Lynchburg last November, a game with 13 touchdowns. Both offenses can break a long one, too. Kam Davis averages 7.1 yards a carry, and Kennesaw State's Brayden Munroe had 159 receiving yards against Jacksonville State and Dylan Gary 135 at Missouri State. A turnover or two that gives Liberty a short field would push this over in a hurry.

PICK #2: Makai Jackson 60+ Receiving Yards (-141)

Jackson doesn't need many catches. He has two to five a game, and four of his six games include a catch of 50 yards or longer. He has reached 60 yards in five of six games: 73 at James Madison, 69 against Gardner-Webb, 88 against Ball State, 149 at Coastal Carolina and 90 at Delaware. The miss was 46 against Sam Houston, the night Purdie threw 14 passes.

At -141 the implied chance is 58.5%, and five of six is a good deal better than that. Purdie has 1,050 passing yards, eight touchdowns and no interceptions, and nearly half of those yards have gone to Jackson. Liberty put him on the Biletnikoff Award watch list on Oct 14. Kennesaw State's pass defense just gave up 311 yards to Jacksonville State and 303 to Missouri State, 300 of them from Henry Belin IV.

Volume is what could sink it. Liberty throws for only 192.8 yards a game, and a big lead or a run-heavy night could hold him to three catches again, as it did against Sam Houston. The pick also needs Jackson in his usual role with Purdie at quarterback. Even in a low-scoring game, two of his usual long catches would get him to 60.

21+ (18+ where permitted). Odds subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.