Liberty vs. Delaware Prediction, CFB Week 5 Odds & Best Bets (10/2)

Fact checked at 10:35 AM ET, Oct 2, 2026

Odds as of Oct 2, 9:48 AM ET

Delaware has not said who is playing quarterback in Friday's Conference USA opener for both teams, and I hate handicapping around that. Nick Minicucci left the 42-3 loss at Virginia in the second quarter with a knee injury. Coach Ryan Carty has declined to say whether he practiced or will play, citing the program's policy of not discussing injuries or depth charts. After he went out, Delaware did not score again, and Braden Streeter and Riley Trujillo combined to complete 3 of 19 passes with two interceptions.

Liberty (3-1) comes in off its two best games, 51-15 over Ball State and 34-17 at Coastal Carolina. Before those it lost 20-13 at James Madison and escaped FCS Gardner-Webb 24-23 as a 28.5-point favorite. Delaware (2-2) beat Coastal Carolina 22-14 at home on September 19.

The consensus spread is Liberty -6.5 (-115), down from an opener of -7. The total is 50.5 (Over -105, Under -112) and Delaware is +210 on the moneyline. Kickoff is Friday at 7:00 PM ET at Delaware Stadium on CBS Sports Network. The kickoff forecast: low 80s cooling into the 70s, partly to mostly cloudy, a southwest wind around 8 mph and roughly a 30% chance of a shower, with a slight chance of an evening thunderstorm.

Liberty vs. Delaware Predictions

• Pick #1: Makai Jackson Anytime Touchdown (+155)
• Pick #2: Delaware +6.5 (-105)
• Pick #3: Under 50.5 (-112)

PICK #1: Makai Jackson Anytime Touchdown (+155)

Makai Jackson has caught a touchdown in all four of Liberty's games: one at James Madison, one against Gardner-Webb, one against Ball State and two at Coastal Carolina. That is five of the Flames' 10 touchdown passes, every one of them thrown by Deshawn Purdie, who has started every game. Jackson's 379 receiving yards are 43% of the team's 886.

He does not get the ball much. Liberty runs first; it has thrown 27, 21, 24 and 18 passes, and Jackson has 14 catches, 3.5 a game. When he does catch one, it tends to go a long way. His touchdowns covered 34, 65, 12, 58 and 33 yards. A receiver who scores from 58 and 65 does not need volume, which is why +155 as of 10:00 AM ET, a 39.2% implied chance, still looks like a fair price to me.

Delaware has been giving up that throw. Coastal Carolina hit a 62-yard completion in Newark, Virginia hit a 74-yarder, and the Blue Hens have allowed eight touchdown passes, five of them to Virginia in a 437-yard day. This is also the one bet on the card where the Delaware quarterback mess matters least. Four of Jackson's five scores came in the first or third quarter, before a lead could turn Liberty toward the run, and he scored in the first quarter of the 36-point win over Ball State. The prop rests on what Liberty's offense has done with Purdie at quarterback, whoever lines up for Delaware. That is why it leads the card.

The part that makes me nervous is the arithmetic of a 3.5-catch receiver: one of those catches has to go the distance. Delaware's pass rush gets home: 14 sacks, at least three in every game, against a Liberty line that has allowed nine. Purdie was relieved against Gardner-Webb after completing 6 of 17, and it was Jaylen Henderson who threw the winning 54-yard touchdown, to another receiver. One of Jackson's four opponents was an FCS team. Near the goal line Liberty has other answers: Ethan Vasko has run for a touchdown in each of the last two games.

A Jackson score helps Liberty's margin and nudges the total up, but it fits inside the one-score game the next two picks need.

PICK #2: Delaware +6.5 (-105)

Taking Delaware now is a bet that Minicucci plays, and +6.5 is what that bet costs before anyone knows. The consensus is +6.5 (-105) as of 9:48 AM ET. If he starts, the number shortens. If Carty names a backup, everything below stops applying, and I would not touch it.

If he does play, you are buying Delaware's defense against a Liberty offense that wants to run. The Blue Hens have 14 sacks, 4.5 of them from Blake Matthews, and they got four at Virginia even in a blowout; Liberty has given up nine. Delaware allows 100.5 rushing yards a game at 2.9 per carry, sacks included, and Liberty has run 168 times in four games, 42 a game. When a defense has held that run game down, Liberty's offense looked like this: 13 points at James Madison on 2.4 yards a carry. A week later it needed a late touchdown to beat Gardner-Webb by a point. Delaware has also won 14 of its last 15 home games.

The case against Delaware is longer than the quarterback question. Coastal Carolina, the one opponent both teams have played, points at Liberty: the Flames won 34-17 on Coastal's field and outgained the Chanticleers 485-292, while Delaware's eight-point home win came with the yardage nearly even, 395 to 385, and two Coastal fumbles lost. Liberty won last season's meeting 59-30. Its run game has grown every week, up to 263 yards at Coastal Carolina with 166 from Kam Davis, and Virginia threw for 437 on this secondary. Even if Minicucci starts, he is playing on a knee injury six days old, and that can limit him. Delaware averages 98 rushing yards a game, so it cannot hide him behind a ground game.

A loss by six or fewer covers; a seven-point loss does not. The line opened at +7 and one major book still has +7 posted, so the move has been toward Delaware. If you believe in Minicucci more than I do, +210 on the moneyline is the bolder version of the same opinion. Delaware keeping it close and Jackson scoring fit inside the same one-score game.

PICK #3: Under 50.5 (-112)

Liberty has allowed 20, 23, 15 and 17 points, and no opponent has gained 305 yards against the Flames. Put that defense against a Delaware offense that has not threatened those numbers against FBS teams: 19 of the 26 points at Vanderbilt (a blocked punt produced the other touchdown), then 22 against Coastal Carolina and three at Virginia, none of them after Minicucci left. That is the Under, and it works with either Delaware quarterback. With a backup, 50.5 asks Liberty to do most of the scoring alone. With Minicucci, the Over still needs something like the 22 points Delaware's offense put on Coastal Carolina, its most against an FBS team.

The Flames' own style shortens the game as well. It runs 42 times and throws 22.5 times a game, and Friday that goes into a defense allowing 2.9 yards a carry with 14 sacks. Five of the two teams' eight games have finished under 50.5. The number is 50.5 (-112) as of 9:48 AM ET, the highest total on the board, and that is where I want to be.

The Over's case starts with Liberty's last two games, which reached 66 and 51 points. Delaware gave up 437 passing yards and five touchdown passes last week, and Jackson's long scores, the ones I am backing above, are exactly what beats an Under. A backup quarterback's interceptions hand Liberty short fields; Streeter threw two at Virginia. The public is on the Over, with 80% of the bets and 86% of the money. Last season's meeting produced 89 points.

A 24-20 Liberty win cashes all three: a Jackson score, a Delaware cover and 44 points.

21+ (18+ where permitted). Odds subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.