Kennesaw State vs. Missouri State Prediction, CFB Week 7 Odds & Best Bets (10/14)

Fact checked at 7:45 AM ET, Oct 14, 2026

Odds as of Oct 14, 7:42 AM ET

Somebody gets a first win over an FBS team in Springfield on Wednesday night. Both teams are 1-4, both lost their Conference USA openers, and Kennesaw State, the defending league champion, has dropped four straight to FBS opponents. Three of those losses came by a combined 18 points: 31-17 to Georgia State, 17-14 at Arkansas State and 27-26 to Jacksonville State. Missouri State has lost three in a row, most recently 34-13 at Western Kentucky on Oct. 8, and is home for the first time since Sept. 19. Kennesaw State won last season's meeting 41-34.

Kennesaw State opened as a 3.5-point favorite and the consensus is now 3. The total has climbed from 50.5 to 52.5. Missouri State still hasn't named a quarterback. Skyler Locklear started the first five games and left the Western Kentucky game in the third quarter; he was cleared to come back, but the staff rode Henry Belin IV the rest of the way, and this week's depth chart lists the two side by side. Kickoff is 7:30 PM ET at Robert W. Plaster Stadium on CBS Sports Network, with the National Weather Service calling for scattered showers and thunderstorms around kickoff (about a one-in-three chance), temperatures in the mid-70s and light wind.

The game we expect: Missouri State's offense, still sorting out who takes the snaps, can't find enough points, and the total stays well short of 52.5. Both picks cash in that game.

Kennesaw State vs. Missouri State Predictions

• Pick #1: Under 52.5 (-114)
• Pick #2: Missouri State Team Total Under 26.5 (-140)

PICK #1: Under 52.5 (-114)

Take away the two FCS blowouts (47-0 over West Georgia, 48-14 over Lindenwood) and these offenses look like what they are. Kennesaw State scores 16.5 points a game against FBS teams, Missouri State 15.25. Kennesaw State's games have finished with 47, 48, 51, 31 and 53 total points, Missouri State's with 50, 62, 54, 58 and 47. Six of the ten stayed under 52.5, and seven went under their closing total.

The pace helps, too. Kennesaw State runs for 122 yards a game against FBS opponents, and Missouri State ranks 134th in FBS in time of possession at 26:10. A wet night won't speed anything up.

The price is -114, a 53.3% implied chance. What bothers us is the two-point climb in the total, which we couldn't tie to any injury or quarterback news. Both defenses give up yards, Kennesaw State ranks 135th in FBS in red-zone defense (opponents have scored on every trip inside the 20), and both of Missouri State's home games went over.

PICK #2: Missouri State Team Total Under 26.5 (-140)

Missouri State hasn't topped 24 points against an FBS team all season. The four games went 0 at Texas A&M, 24 against Marshall, 24 at SMU (one of those touchdowns was a 60-yard interception return) and 13 at Western Kentucky. The 48 against Lindenwood is the only time it got past 26, and the offense ranks 104th in FBS in yards per game.

A quarterback switch isn't an obvious fix. Locklear threw for 89 yards on 24 attempts at Western Kentucky. Belin did lead one touchdown drive after taking over, finished by a 36-yard throw to Isaiah Myers, but two of his last three drives lost five yards on seven plays combined, and at SMU he went 7 of 15 for 69 yards with an interception. Kennesaw State, meanwhile, ranks fourth in Conference USA at 23.4 points allowed per game.

At -140 you're paying for a 58.3% chance, and it isn't free money: Kennesaw State gave up 27 or more to three of its four FBS opponents, and Myers averages 20.95 yards a catch, the kind of receiver who can swing a quarter on his own. This pick and the Under rise and fall together. If Missouri State gets to 27, the full-game Under is probably gone as well, and if the Bears stall again, both should come in.

21+ (18+ where permitted). Odds subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.