Is it Dame Time in the 3-point contest? We think so.

The STARRY 3-point Contest has remained a fan-favorite over the years, mostly because it’s hard to screw it up. The guy who hits the most shots/scores the most points wins, so, unlike the dunk contest, there is no subjectivity when it comes to scoring the event. 

I must have slept through last year’s contest, as I have no recollection of Karl-Anthony Towns winning it. And it’s also pretty rare that a big man wins the contest. Admittedly, I used to live for All-Star Weekend and wouldn’t dare miss it, but that’s no longer the case, at least for me. The dunk contest has lost a lot of luster and I just haven’t made Saturday night viewing a priority over the last few years.  

Contestants and Odds

Damian Lillard +425

Buddy Hield +425

Jayson Tatum +500

Kevin Huerter +550

Tyler Herro +550

Tyrese Haliburton +600

Julius Randle +650

Lauri Markkanen +700

Here is how they rank in 3-point shooting percentage this season along with how many triples they’ve hit so far. 

Hield 42.6% 230

Markkanen 41.2% 164

Haliburton 39.9% 142

Huerter 39.2% 143

Lillard 37.2% 191

Herro 36.9% 135

Tatum 35.7% 183

Randle 33.4% 161

As you can see, Hield leads the way in both categories, which is why he’s the favorite to win it. It’s interesting to me that Tatum has the second-best odds when he has the second-worst shooting percentage of the contestants and while it’s great that Randle has knocked down 161 triples this year, it’s tough to see him winning it. 

When I think about the 3-point contest I think ‘pure shooter.’ Guys like Larry Bird, Stephen Curry, Klay Thompson, Craig Hodges, etc. I don’t think ‘power forward’ or ‘big man,’ and throughout history there haven’t been many big guys win one of these. The short list is: Dirk Nowitzki, Kevin Love and Towns. That’s it. That makes me very hesitant to put much faith in the bigs in this contest - Markkanen, Randle and (sort of) Tatum. Tall guys also have further to reach to get the balls off the rack. 

There are four guys on this list that scream ‘shooter’ to me when I think of them and three of them have the word ‘shooting’ in their position title: Hield, Huerter, Lillard and Herro. And I guess Lillard could also be considered a shooting guard when Anfernee Simons is on the court with him. Speaking of Simons, he was in the contest but had to be replaced with Randle due to a badly sprained ankle. Here’s my take on each contestant.

Click here to see our Dunk Contest preview and predictions.

Hield is having his best year from downtown in a long time, as he shot below 40 percent from beyond the arc in each of his last three seasons. He’s also getting 9.0 threes up per game and it will be interesting to see how well he shoots it without a hand in his face, as well as with the clock ticking. But Hield fits the mold of a 3-point contest winner - a 6’4” shooting guard having a great year, and he has history at this event, winning it in 2020. He’s also a 40.2 percent 3-point shooter over his career. A Hield-Lillard final would not surprise me, nor anyone else. 

Lillard’s an interesting case study because so many of his regular-season 3-point tries come from crazy distances. He’ll shoot it from half court, from the logo or from anywhere else on the court. Lillard, who is 6’2”, hit just 32.4 percent of his triples last season before being shut down early with injury and is right in line with his career percentage (37.3) this year (37.2). He shot it much better from downtown in his previous two seasons, hitting 40.1% in 2019-20, and 39.1% in the ‘20-21 season. There’s a reason Lillard’s odds are the same as Hield’s and when I envision Dame shooting from the racks and racing against the clock, it feels like he’s going to be impossible to beat. Especially since he won’t have to shoot it from any further than the 3-point line. Also, Dame is jacking up 11.2 triples per game, so he’s had a ton of practice. 

Tatum is 6’8” and a serious MVP candidate for the Celtics this season. When I think of Tatum I think of a scorer and all-around player, but 3-pointers aren’t near the top of my list. Maybe they should be. He’s attempting 9.3 per game and is a 37.8 percent career shooter from beyond the arc. Tatum has a decent shot at winning this thing, especially if he gets hot, but I still feel that a pure shooting guard like Lillard or Hield has a better chance. 

Huerter, who is 6’7”,  just looks like a guy who can’t do anything but shoot, even though that’s not the case. He’s having a career year at 39.2 percent and is attempting 6.8 triples per game. That’s more than two less per game than Hield and four fewer than Lillard, and Huerter’s career percentage sits at 38.2 percent. While I envision Huerter to be a better shooter than Hield in my mind, it’s simply not true. And it’s not really even that close. 

Herro is 6’5”, has never shot higher than 39.9 percent in his four years and is at 38.1 percent for his career. He’s also attempting a career-high 8.1 per game and should be considered a sleeper in this event. Herro is streaky and if gets hot at the right time on Saturday, could do some real damage.

Haliburton is 6’5” and attempts 7.2 triples per game. He actually has shot at least 40.9 percent from downtown in all three of his complete seasons and is very close to being above 40% again this year (39.9%). But he’s a true point guard and I just don’t see him winning over volume guys like Lillard and Hield. But he’s also shooting 48 percent from the floor this season and could easily get hot and win this contest. And at +600, he’ll offer a nice payout if he can pull it off. He’s my sleeper pick. 

Randle is a 6’8” power forward who had never attempted more than 5.5 3-pointers in a season until this one. He’s at 8.0 per game this year and he hits 2.7 per contest. But he’s also a banger and enforcer for the Knicks and the winners of this contest are usually finesse guys. I can’t envision Randle getting it done and his career percentage is just 33.4%. 

Markkanen is 7’0” tall and, along with Haliburton, is one of this season’s most improved players. In fact, I think he’s going to win the award, averaging a career-high 24.9 points, 8.6 rebounds and 3.0 3-pointers on 7.4 attempts per game. His 41.3 percent shooting from beyond the arc is also a career-best and he’s a 37.4 percent shooter from deep for his career. Maybe I’m sleeping on him, but the only other seven-footers to ever win are Dirk and KAT. 

All of these guys are in this contest for a reason and any of them can win it, depending on if they get hot or not. But Lillard just has that ‘it’ factor and he’ll be shooting from right on the line instead of 10 feet back. He’s chalky, but that’s who I’m going with. 

Pick: Damian Lillard +425

Sleeper Pick: Tyrese Haliburton +600