Who's going to win the Dunk Contest on Saturday?

The days of setting your VCR for the Dunk Contest are over, mainly because there are no more VCRs left in the world, but also because the contest has become a bit of a bad joke over the last 10 years. 

I actually attended my favorite dunk contest of all time when Dominique Wilkins beat Michael Jordan in the finals of the 1985 contest in Indianapolis. Talk about the good ol’ days…My brother and I bought two All-Star Saturday tickets for $5 a piece. FIVE DOLLARS. And my Pacers’ buddy Terrence Stansbury, who was in that dunk contest, gave me a ticket to the All-Star Game. I was sitting about 15 rows up near center court, right next to Herb Williams and Granville Waiters. And, as you can see, the price tag was just $35.  

So now that I’ve bored you with tales from yesteryear, let’s take a look at this year’s contest. Even though the dunk contest has become a disaster waiting to happen, it’s still fun to bet on, right? But before we dive into this year’s contestants, we have to talk about who’s not competing. 

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Portland rookie Shaedon Sharpe is the most exciting in-game dunker in the league today. And I don’t even know if that’s up for debate. And he was in the dunk contest, and then he wasn’t. He reportedly pulled out due to the fact he was a Rising Stars Game snub, although his official answer is that he’s going to focus on getting ready for the second half of the season. And while that’s admirable and all, it just makes me sad because we were robbed. 

There aren’t a lot of stats and data to consider when trying to predict what will happen in a dunk contest. The number of dunks a player has in the season, or the percentage of his baskets made that are dunks is completely irrelevant here. And while I do think age and height plays into the formula, the dunk contest is about creativity and athleticism. Spud Webb’s number of dunks per season certainly wasn’t off the charts and he was an outlier given that he’s 5’6’’, but he blew our minds in the dunk contest and beat Dominique. To me, the best way to figure out who might win is to sit down and watch guys dunk. And in today’s day and age, that’s not very hard to do. So I put in the hours of watching Jericho Sims flush basic, two-handed, big-man jams so you don’t have to. 

Here’s a list of the contestants, some stats and odds, followed by some bios and my prediction as to who will win it. 

Contestants

Kenyon Martin Jr., Rockets, 6’7”, age 22, odds +250

Mac McClung, G-League/Sixers, 6’2”, age 24, odds +230

Trey Murphy III, Pelicans, 6’8”, age 22, odds +290

Jericho Sims, Knicks, 6’9”, age 24, odds +250

Stats

Looking back at the last 12 contests, Donovan Mitchell was the only player shorter than 6’3" to win one (2018). And last year’s winner, Obi Toppin, Blake Griffin (2011), and Jeremy Evans (2012) were the only players over 6’6” to win. Ironically, all three of them are 6’9”, or the same height as Sims. The average height of the last 12 dunk contest winners is 6’5.5’’, which puts Martin closest to the sweet spot. McClung is in rare air at 6’2” with only winners John Wall (2014, 6’3”), Anfernee Simons (2021, 6’3") and Mitchell in his height ballpark. And I don’t think age is a factor in this one since all four guys are either 22 or 24. 

Bios

Kenyon Martin Jr. 

The son of the original Kenyon Martin is known by K.J. and was the early favorite to win the contest. And if you spend five minutes watching his highlights on Youtube, you’ll see why. His in-game dunks are creative, he’s equally impressive with both one- and two-handed dunks, and he can simply jump out of the gym. He’s got a nice combination of grace and power and there’s not much he can’t do. The key is, will he be able to perform on a stage without a game going on around him? Is he going to be creative enough? Does he have the kind of personality that will shine through in this environment? And that’s what makes handicapping this thing so difficult. We just don’t know the players well enough to predict how they’ll come off with the pressure on the line. And that same question applies to all four of these guys. But KJM checks all the boxes, from age and height to his dunking ability and flair.

Mac McClung

In case you’re not familiar with McClung (and really, why would you be?) he’s had a cup of coffee in the NBA, playing in one game for the Lakers and one game for the Bulls last season. He’s a scrappy kid from southern Virginia and was clearly a high school phenom who could throw down impressive dunks on any center he ever faced at that level. His highlight tape from high school is fun to watch and he can still put on a show in G-League warmups, but there’s only so much he can do with the ball. Most of his dunks have the same look and feel as the others and while I’m not saying he can’t win it, it’s tough to imagine him finding enough diversity in his dunks to get it done. He’s going to have to get really creative and avoid misses to win. 

Trey Murphy

Murphy is known more as a 3-point specialist than a dunker but his tape is fairly impressive. However, I also feel like I’ve already seen all his dunks before somewhere. Then again, that’s part of the problem with the contest. We’ve seen it all before and there’s no new territory left to explore and discover. Maybe Murphy will come out and put on a show, but his height could work against him and we don’t know how his personality is going to play in front of the lights and cameras. And I’d also feel better about him if he was known as a dunk specialist instead of a 3-point specialist. 

Jericho Sims

Sims plays center for the Knicks and is getting a ton of run because of Mitchell Robinson’s thumb injury. And watching his highlight reel nearly put me to sleep. Almost every dunk I saw was two-handed and via an alley-oop pass, with almost no flair added on at the end. And if it wasn’t a two-handed, basic alley-oop, it was a two-handed, basic putback after a rebound or a pass inside. If he wins I’ll be shocked, but you never know.

Prediction

It looks to me like KJ Martin is going to be very tough to beat in this thing. Had Sharpe stuck around, I think it would come down to those two and I’d be taking Sharpe. I’m not going to rule any of the four contestants out and I think McClung, whether favored or not, is more of a sleeper pick, especially if the NBA wants to draw more attention and publicity to the G-League. But given that the odds are all so close I’ll be putting my money on Martin, simply because his age and height are in the wheelhouse and his highlight reel passes the eye test. 

Pick: Kenyon Martin Jr.