Iowa vs Ohio State picks - October 5

The Ohio State Buckeyes will host the Iowa Hawkeyes in a Big Ten clash on Saturday, October 5, 2024. The kickoff at Ohio Stadium is set for 3:30 pm ET, with the game broadcast live on CBS. This game features a pair of teams in good form after getting off to strong starts this season. At the same time, this Iowa team should be extremely motivated off a bye week, eager to prove that it can hang tough with an elite Big Ten foe.

With both teams looking to make a statement on a big stage, let’s dive into our expert’s Iowa vs Ohio State predictions and best bets for this game.

Predictions

Pick #1 - Ohio State Buckeyes -18.5 over Iowa Hawkeyes (-105)

Pick #2 - Over 45 (-110)

Pick #3 - TreVeyon Henderson anytime touchdown scorer (-140)

PICK #1: Ohio State -18.5 over Iowa (-105)

Even though Iowa is coming off a bye, this game represents a massive step up in class for a Hawkeyes team that lost its only other game against a top 25 opponent this season (Iowa State at home). Therefore, it’s hard not to see value in taking Ohio State at the current number. 

There’s certainly an avenue for Iowa to compete in this game on paper, but Ohio State has one of the best rosters in the nation on both sides of the ball – which doesn’t inspire confidence that this low-scoring, defensive-minded Iowa team can keep up. 

Iowa hasn’t faced an offense of this caliber to this point, as Ohio State ranks 1st in the nation in offensive EPA margin, 7th in success rate and 2nd in net points per drive according to College Football Insiders. Led by Ole Miss transfer Quinshon Judkins, the Buckeyes have plenty of talent in the backfield, and Ohio State’s embarrassment of riches at the wide receiver position continues this season with veteran leader Emeka Egbuka and freshman phenom Jeremiah Smith on the outside.

Not only does Ohio State have a loaded unit on offense, but offensive coordinator Chip Kelly has former Kansas State quarterback Will Howard playing clean and efficiently – which is the key to making this offense click. On the other side of the ball, Ohio State’s defense ranks inside the top 5 in opponent EPA per rush, EPA per pass and net points per drive. There’s certainly not a drop off from last season’s excellent unit under defensive coordinator Jim Knowles. 

As long as Ohio State can limit Iowa’s success on the ground, it’s hard to see the Hawkeyes sustaining successful drives against a terrific Buckeyes defense. In fact, if Iowa falls behind early on Saturday, the Hawkeyes could be in real trouble against a superior opponent on the road. Although Ohio State could be looking ahead to next week’s matchup against Oregon in theory, let’s target the Buckeyes to win comfortably in this one.

PICK #2: Over 45 (-110)

On paper, Iowa will likely look to limit the amount of possessions the Buckeyes have in this game, but it’s still hard to imagine how Ohio State doesn’t score on Saturday. At the end of the day, the Ohio State offense is much too talented and efficient to be limited against an Iowa defense that is still very good, but not quite as strong as what we’ve seen in previous seasons.

Looking back to that Week 2 matchup, Iowa surrendered a few big plays in the passing game against Iowa State. There’s no doubt that Ohio State’s passing offense will present a much bigger challenge than what the Hawkeyes saw against the Cyclones in September. 

Recent history would favor this angle as well, given the fact that the Buckeyes tallied 54 points in a dominant showing in Columbus in the last meeting between these two teams. Let’s target a similar game script here, as Ohio State should be able to score plenty of points by themselves in a game where the offense should continue to hum throughout.  

PICK #3: TreVeyon Henderson anytime touchdown scorer (-140)

For our final pick in this Saturday matchup, let’s go with Ohio State running back TreVeyon Henderson to find the end zone for the 5th time this season. Henderson was overshadowed by Quinshon Judkins a week ago, but the Buckeyes senior still has an average of 8.9 yards per carry this season and found the end zone multiple times against Western Michigan and Marshall.

With Iowa representing a step up in class for the Buckeyes, offensive coordinator Chip Kelly will likely want to make things easier for his quarterback by leaning on the ground game against a stout defense. If Ohio State gets inside the Hawkeyes 10-yard line, Henderson is certainly a threat to get the ball and take it to the house.