Iowa State vs. BYU Prediction, CFB Week 6 Odds & Best Bets (10/9)

Fact checked at 8:42 AM ET, Oct 9, 2026

Odds as of Oct 9, 7:36 AM ET

No. 8 BYU takes a 4-0 record and a 2-0 Big 12 start into Friday night against Iowa State without the player its offense was built around. LJ Martin, last season's Big 12 Offensive Player of the Year, left the 17-10 win at TCU in the first half after two carries and is expected to miss at least a month. Linebacker Isaiah Glasker, safety Raider Damuni and running back Sione Moa are also out, and nickel cornerback Cannon DeVries is doubtful. BYU finished that rainy night in Fort Worth with 216 total yards and 62 passing yards, and quarterback Bear Bachmeier led the team in carries. Iowa State (3-2, 1-1) arrives off a 45-42 win over West Virginia on its first trip outside the state this season, without safety Drew Surges, linebacker Rylan Barnes and defensive linemen Caden Crawford and Ka'Mori Moore.

The line has come down with the injury news. BYU opened at -14.5 with a total of 50.5 and now sits at -10.5 (-108) with the total at 46.5. Kickoff is 10:15 PM ET at LaVell Edwards Stadium in Provo, on ESPN. The forecast is dry, mid-70s at kickoff cooling into the low 70s, with wind around 10 mph. The final game-day availability report posts about two hours before kickoff.

We see one game here. BYU's offense runs through Bachmeier, his legs finishing drives near the goal line and his arm finding Legend Glasker downfield. The Cougars get ahead at home, and Iowa State, which is not going to run on a BYU front allowing 75 rushing yards a game, has to throw to keep up. That puts the ball in Omari Hayes's hands. Every pick below wins in that game.

Iowa State vs. BYU Predictions

• Pick #1: Bear Bachmeier Anytime Touchdown (-155)
• Pick #2: Legend Glasker 60+ Receiving Yards (+133)
• Pick #3: Omari Hayes 25+ Receiving Yards (-163)

PICK #1: Bear Bachmeier Anytime Touchdown (-155)

TCU was the preview. Once Martin left, Bachmeier was BYU's running game: 15 carries for 66 yards and both touchdowns, on runs of 9 and 21 yards. Preston Rex carried eight times for 21 yards and Journee Tonga seven for 28. The coaches call the backfield a committee, and nobody in it came close to the quarterback's workload.

Bachmeier has four rushing touchdowns in four games and has scored in three of them: twice at TCU, once against Arizona and once against Utah Tech. The blank came at Colorado State, when he carried twice for minus-3 yards while Martin ran for three touchdowns. Martin will not be taking those goal-line carries on Friday. The staff spent the offseason trying to hold Bachmeier to single-digit carries, and that plan lasted three games before TCU. Without Martin, the expectation around the program is that he will have to run more than anyone would like.

Iowa State's defense is the right opponent for that. Surges is out at safety, Barnes at linebacker, and Crawford and Moore on the line. The Cyclones gave up 42 points and 518 yards to West Virginia last week, and by one local count they missed 51 tackles over their last two games.

At -155 the implied chance is 60.8%. What beats it: BYU hands the short-yardage work to Rex or to Tonga, who averages 8.3 yards a carry, or finishes drives through the air the way it did against Arizona with three passing touchdowns. An offense that stalls and settles for field goals leaves Bachmeier without a score, and against FBS opponents he has scored in two of three games.

PICK #2: Legend Glasker 60+ Receiving Yards (+133)

Glasker is BYU's passing game. The freshman has 14 catches for 279 yards and two touchdowns, about 40% of the team's passing yards; the next receiver, Kyler Kasper, has 138. Glasker has cleared 60 in three of four games: 65 on three catches against Utah Tech, 74 on three against Arizona and 131 on five at Colorado State. Catches of 70, 61 and 33 yards show how he gets there. One connection covers most of this number.

Plus money is why 60+ is the rung. The +133 price implies a 42.9% chance. The 40+ rung costs -199 for the same three games cleared, since every one of his hits was 65 or more, so the lower number charges a lot for cushion he has not needed.

Without Martin, BYU's coordinator has said the plan is to find ways to get the best players the ball, and Glasker is first on that list. When Martin left last season's game at Iowa State with a shoulder injury, Bachmeier threw for 307 yards. Iowa State's secondary is without Surges and just allowed 227 passing yards on 11 completions to West Virginia, with touchdowns of 33 and 47 yards. Friday night in Provo is dry.

The one miss is the one that hurts. At TCU, the game BYU played mostly without Martin, Glasker caught three passes for 9 yards in the rain and BYU threw for 62 yards all night. Losing Martin also removes the decoy that opened space for everyone else, and a defense can give Glasker extra attention. If BYU rides Tonga and keeps the ball on the ground instead, this loses. Anyone who wants more cushion can take 49+ at -123, a 55.2% implied chance.

PICK #3: Omari Hayes 25+ Receiving Yards (-163)

Hayes is the receiver Jaylen Raynor finds every week. He has caught a pass in all five games, leads Iowa State with 14 receptions, and has reached 25 yards in four of them: 34 on three catches against West Virginia (including a 20-yard touchdown), 55 on five against Utah, 39 on three at Iowa and 54 on two against Southeast Missouri State. All three games against Power Four opponents cleared the number. The miss was 8 yards on one catch in a 55-7 win over Bowling Green, when Iowa State threw 18 passes.

Friday should not look like Bowling Green. BYU allows 75 rushing yards a game, and Aiden Flora, who has 594 yards at 8.1 a carry, is going to find less room than he did against West Virginia. When Iowa State had to throw against Utah, Raynor put up 40 attempts and Hayes caught five for 55. Even at Iowa, where the Cyclones managed 117 passing yards as a team, Hayes had 39 of them. BYU's secondary is down Damuni, with DeVries doubtful, and in the game we expect Iowa State is chasing a lead for most of the night.

A price of -163 works out to 62.0%, which is a lot for a receiver who has never caught more than five passes in a game this season. Iowa State prefers to run, and it held the ball for more than 38 minutes against West Virginia. Cody Jackson's six catches for 160 yards in that game give Raynor a second target who can take throws away from Hayes, and Dominic Overby draws looks too. The 30+ rung at -115, a 53.5% break-even, has the same four-of-five record and pays better if you are comfortable with five fewer yards of room.

21+ (18+ where permitted). Odds subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.