Indiana vs. Nebraska Prediction, CFB Week 6 Odds & Best Bets (10/10)

Fact checked at 6:36 AM ET, Oct 10, 2026

Odds as of Oct 10, 5:54 AM ET

Two unbeaten Big Ten teams meet in Lincoln, and the wind gets a vote. Indiana (5-0, 2-0 Big Ten) is the defending national champion, sits No. 7 in the AP poll, has won 21 straight and just beat Rutgers 47-15 on the road. Nebraska (5-0, 2-0) handled Maryland 48-23 at home last Saturday. Both offenses average more than 43 points a game, though neither has seen much resistance. Indiana's five opponents were North Texas, Howard (FCS), Western Kentucky, Northwestern and Rutgers; Nebraska's were Ohio, Bowling Green, North Dakota (FCS), Michigan State and Maryland. Indiana has allowed 54 points all season, Nebraska 71.

Kickoff is at 12:00 PM ET on FOX at Memorial Stadium. The National Weather Service has sunshine for the game window, temperatures rising from the upper 70s to the upper 80s, and a south wind of 20 to 21 mph with gusts as high as 37 mph. A second forecast model is a little calmer, with sustained wind in the high teens, but it still has gusts in the mid-to-upper 30s. That is a running day, and both of these teams like to run.

Indiana does it better. The Hoosiers average 252.6 rushing yards a game, and both of their backs clear 100: Turbo Richard at 117.4 a game (9.3 a carry) and Lee Beebe Jr. at 104.0. Indiana's defense, meanwhile, gives up 64.4 rushing yards a game and 2.1 a carry. Nebraska has run for between 157 and 277 yards in every game, which is exactly the piece of its offense Indiana is built to take away.

The betting market has leaned the other way. Indiana was -9 with a total of 49.5 in a Sep 30 look-ahead line, before either team played last week. It's now Indiana -7.5 (-115) and Nebraska +7.5 (-105), with the moneyline at Indiana -330 and Nebraska +260 and the total at 48.5 (over -104, under -115). We couldn't find injury or lineup news behind the move.

On Friday's availability report, Indiana lists tight end Andrew Barker (a starter in each of the last four games), receiver Lebron Bond, running back Khobie Martin and cornerback Carson Williams as out. Nebraska has receiver Larry Miles, defensive back Kahmir Prescott, linebackers Jase Reynolds and Jacob Bower and defensive lineman Gabe Moore out, plus defensive tackle Riley Van Poppel, tight end Carter Nelson and linebacker Gage Stenger questionable. Neither starting quarterback, Josh Hoover or Anthony Colandrea, is on it. Jamal Rule, Nebraska's leading rusher, missed the Maryland game and is expected back.

Here's how we see it: Indiana grinds out yards on the ground, Nebraska's run game stalls, and the Hoosiers win a windy, lower-scoring game by more than a touchdown. Both picks cash in that game, and both lose if Nebraska runs well enough to keep pace.

Indiana vs. Nebraska Predictions

• Pick #1: Under 48.5 Total Points (-115)
• Pick #2: Indiana -7.5 (-115)

PICK #1: Under 48.5 Total Points (-115)

Start with the wind. A sustained wind near 20 mph, gusting into the high 30s, makes deep shots and long field goals harder, and it nudges two run-first offenses even further toward handing off. Indiana averages 39.2 rushing attempts a game and Nebraska 39.6. Indiana has also held the ball for more than 33 minutes in four of its five games. Long drives on the ground burn clock, and clock is the Under's friend.

Then the defenses. Indiana allows 10.8 points a game and Nebraska 14.2. Opponents have converted 13 of 61 third downs against Nebraska (21.3%), a rate Nebraska's athletic department lists as second nationally, and 18 of 67 against Indiana (26.9%).

The number has been sliding our way, too: 49.5 on Sep 30, 48.5 now, and at least one book is already down to 47.5. Grab 48.5 while it's there. The -115 price carries a 53.5% implied probability.

What could go wrong? Plenty of these teams' games have gone over this number: seven of the 10, including Indiana's 29-23 win over Northwestern and Nebraska's 48-23 win over Maryland. Wind doesn't stop a long run, either. Richard went 57 yards on one carry at Rutgers and Beebe 70 against Northwestern. Two of those, or a turnover that hands someone a short field, and this goes over fast.

PICK #2: Indiana -7.5 (-115)

Against Western Kentucky, Northwestern and Rutgers, Indiana ran for 233, 271 and 329 yards. Nebraska's run defense gives up 100.6 yards a game, and Maryland ran for 141 on just 25 carries against it last week. Indiana has two backs who can each carry the load, and Nebraska has to stop both.

Flip it around and the matchup looks worse for Nebraska. The Huskers' offense starts with the run, and Indiana has held its five opponents to 2.1 yards a carry combined: 152 rushing yards for North Texas, 13 for Howard, 66 for Western Kentucky, 32 for Northwestern and 59 for Rutgers. A team that falls behind and has to throw into a 20 mph wind is in a tough spot, and that team is more likely to be Nebraska. Curt Cignetti is 32-2 at Indiana.

At -115 you need Indiana to cover about 53.5% of the time. Stick with -7.5. At least one major book is dealing -8.5 (-108), and a margin of exactly eight wins at -7.5 and loses at -8.5.

Nebraska has real ways to win this. The Huskers are unbeaten at home, Colandrea ran for 108 yards against Maryland, and Indiana's closest game this year was that 29-23 win over Northwestern, which threw for 293 yards against the Hoosiers. The line has also dropped 1.5 points from the look-ahead number with no clear cause. If Nebraska's backs find room early, this is a one-score game.

21+ (18+ where permitted). Odds subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.