Houston vs. Kansas State Prediction, CFB Week 6 Odds & Best Bets (10/10)

Fact checked at 6:37 AM ET, Oct 10, 2026

Odds as of Oct 10, 4:54 AM ET

No. 22 Houston (4-1, 1-1 Big 12) comes to Manhattan on a two-game winning streak, the latest a 27-17 comeback over UCF. The only loss was 28-26 at Texas Tech. Kansas State (3-1, 0-1) has had two weeks to stew over a 31-26 loss at Cincinnati.

These teams want to play the same game. Houston has run the ball at least 37 times every week and leads the country on third down. Kansas State runs for 240.8 yards a game, ranks second on third down, and has held the ball for at least 33 minutes in all four of its games. Houston has won time of possession in four of five. Both can't keep the ball all afternoon, so the likeliest result is a game with fewer possessions than usual.

Kansas State is a 2.5-point favorite (-113), with Houston +2.5 at -107. The moneyline is Kansas State -137, Houston +114, and the Houston price has drifted longer this week. The total is 55.5 (over -105, under -115).

Kickoff is at 3:30 PM ET at Bill Snyder Family Stadium, on FOX. Expect sun, upper-80s heat and a south wind around 15 mph with gusts in the mid-20s. The final game-day availability report posts about 90 minutes before kickoff.

We expect a slow, tight game: Houston's run defense keeps Kansas State from pulling away, and neither offense gets enough possessions to push the score past the mid-50s. Both picks cash in that game.

Houston vs. Kansas State Predictions

• Pick #1: Houston +2.5 (-107)
• Pick #2: Under 55.5 Total Points (-115)

PICK #1: Houston +2.5 (-107)

Kansas State lives on the run, and Houston stops the run. The Cougars allow 65.4 rushing yards a game, eighth nationally, while the Wildcats lean on Avery Johnson (291 rushing yards), Rodney Fields Jr. (274) and Joe Jackson (189). Collin Klein noticed. The Kansas State coach said this week that Houston has "a top-10 rush defense" and called it "the No. 1 third-down team in the country." Houston's line has also allowed about one sack a game, which matters against a defense averaging three.

Houston has the better résumé. Houston beat Oregon State, Georgia Southern and UCF and lost by two at Texas Tech, then ranked No. 13. Kansas State's wins came against Washington State, Tulane and Nicholls of the FCS, and it lost its only Big 12 game. Conner Weigman has thrown 11 touchdown passes against one interception, and Houston has scored at least 26 in every game.

There's a soft spot on the other side, too. Cincinnati ran 38 times for 271 yards against Kansas State and won. Houston has run between 37 and 45 times in every game this season.

At -107, the number implies a 51.7% chance. Houston has also drawn 70% of the spread money on 55% of the bets.

This isn't free. Kansas State is home and rested. Houston is without linebacker Jaden Yates, tied for the team lead with 29 tackles, and fellow linebacker Bryson Castile; both were listed out on Friday night's Big 12 availability report, along with offensive lineman RJ Lee. Texas Tech is the only opponent to run for more than 75 yards on Houston (168), and it won. The moneyline has also moved toward Kansas State this week. If you'd rather have Houston outright, it's +114.

PICK #2: Under 55.5 Total Points (-115)

Start with the scores. These teams have played seven games against FBS opponents, and five finished under 55.5:

Houston: 53 vs. Oregon State, 54 at Texas Tech, 70 at Georgia Southern, 44 vs. UCF

Kansas State: 41 vs. Washington State, 51 vs. Tulane, 57 at Cincinnati

Houston's games against Oregon State, Texas Tech and UCF all stayed under. The gaudy scoring averages (Houston 41.0 points a game, Kansas State 40.5) lean on 77 against Southern and 71 against Nicholls.

Kansas State allows about 106 passing yards a game, fewest in the FBS, and 5.45 yards per attempt. Opponents have thrown only 78 passes in four games because they keep trying to run instead. Houston's run defense ranks eighth. Put two offenses that want to grind and convert third downs on the same field and the clock moves fast. Mid-20s gusts won't help anyone's deep shots, either.

The -115 price implies a 53.5% chance.

Houston's pass defense is the worry. It has allowed 261.6 yards a game, including 376 to Oregon State and 289 to Georgia Southern, and it's down two linebackers. Kansas State has scored at least 26 in every game. And the money is on the other side: the Over has drawn 68% of the money on 53% of the bets.

21+ (18+ where permitted). Odds subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.