Holiday Bowl & Texas Bowl Previews and Picks
College Bowl season is heating up and we’re going to try to get another pair correct after rolling with the Wisconsin Badgers on Tuesday. Wednesday night features the 9-4 North Carolina Tar Heels vs. the 9-3 Oregon Ducks in the Holiday Bowl in San Diego, as well as 8-4 Ole Miss Rebels vs. the Texas Tech Red Raiders in the TaxAct Texas Bowl.
Carolina quarterback Drake Maye and Oregon QB Bo Nix are both going to be in the Heisman race next season and tonight should be a fun showcasing of both players and their potent offenses. We’re actually lucky that both of these guys will be playing tonight. Nix could have gone pro after this season but has elected to come back and play one more year for the Ducks, while there was a lot of talk about Maye entering the transfer portal before he announced he was staying at UNC.
Maye has thrown for over 4,000 yards and 35 touchdowns with just seven interceptions and Oregon’s pass rush was nearly nonexistent even before they lost Christian Gonzalez to the NFL Draft. In short, Maye should have plenty of time to throw the ball tonight, assuming he can find someone to throw it to. Carolina’s best receiver, Josh Downs, won’t be playing tonight. Nix has 42 total TDs, (15 rushing), a completion percentage of 71.5 percent and the No. 7 passer rating in the nation.
As usual, the transfer portal will impact this game and will especially affect the Tar Heels, who already had one of the worst defenses in the country before losing several key players to the portal. They do still have linebacker Cedric Gray, who is just three tackles shy of being No. 2 in the country, but they’re going to need more to stop Oregon. Oregon’s offense is highly explosive and is one of just four FBS teams to score at least 40 points eight times this season, joining high-profile teams like Ohio State, USC and Tennessee. Meanwhile, Carolina’s defense ranks 121 among 131 FBS teams in passing yards allowed per game (276.4) and gave up a whopping 31 points per game on the season.
This is going to be an exciting game watching two of the best QBs in the sport launching missiles all night. And while Oregon’s pass rush just isn’t there, their team’s defense is much better than what North Carolina has to offer. The Ducks should pull away in a classic shootout.
Pick: Oregon -13.5
The Rebels come into this game on a three-game losing streak after falling to Mississippi State in the Egg Bowl, while the Red Raider train is rolling on a three-game winning streak, topped by an overtime win against Oklahoma to end the regular season.
Unlike some other games, it appears that these teams were not wiped out by the NFL Draft or transfer portal. Lane Kiffin’s Ole Miss offense is strong, led by running back Quinshon Judkins and his 1,474 rushing yards and 16 touchdowns. Running back Zach Evans and QB Jaxson Dart are also both good on the ground, topping 500 yards. And none of that bodes well for the Red Raiders and a defense that gives up more than 166 yards per game. The Kiffin drama when the Auburn job was available was interesting and likely caused a huge distraction for his players. While that drama has been settled by Kiffin signing an extension, you still have to wonder if it had any lasting effects on his players.
Meanwhile, Joey McGuire’s Texas Tech offense isn’t exactly stagnant, especially in that 51-49 win over the Sooners when QB Tyler Shough threw for 463 yards. The Raiders offense is built for passing success as they had three different starting QBs this season and all three were successful. Donovan Smith entered the transfer portal and Behren Morton is out with a sprained ankle. So it’s Shough’s show again tonight. Senior running back SaRodorick Thompson will be playing in his final game and should have a fun night against a questionable Rebels run defense. And the Raiders overall defense has been solid this season, despite the porous rushing D.
According to the Oddscrowd algorithm the Under 71.5 points has a 2.3% Plus Exceptional Value Edge tonight and Oddscrowd top performer Bochbet likes the Rebels -3.5. But with the Red Raiders coming in hot on a three-game winning streak and a strong passing attack, and Ole Miss on a three-game losing streak with just three wins against the spread this season, I’m rolling with the Red Raiders and the points.
Pick: Texas Tech +3.5
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