Georgia vs Texas picks October 19

The Georgia Bulldogs and Texas Longhorns will meet in Austin in one of the most anticipated matchups of the season on Saturday, October 19, 2024. The kickoff at Darrell K Royal Stadium is 7:30 PM ET, with the game broadcast live on ABC. This clash features a Texas team flying high after a dominant 6-0 start to the season, while this Georgia squad is looking to insert itself back into the SEC title picture following an early loss to Alabama. 

With both teams looking to make a statement on the biggest stage, let’s dive into our expert’s predictions and best bets for this titanic SEC showdown.

Predictions

Pick #1: Georgia Bulldogs +5 over Texas Longhorns (-110) 

Pick #2: Over 55.5 (-110) 

Pick #3: Carson Beck (UGA) over 258.5 passing yards (-110)

Pick #1: Georgia +5 over Texas (-110)

This isn’t your typically elite Georgia team, and that much has been proven over the first seven weeks of the season. The Bulldogs are uncharacteristically sloppy, don’t look as connected on both sides of the ball and have struggled with both starting off slow and putting teams away this season. However, it’s hard to get to Georgia as an underdog of over a field goal in this spot, much less a number that is creeping closer to a touchdown at the moment.  

Kirby Smart’s bunch is taking on a Texas Longhorns team that has looked like the best unit in college football to this point. With that said, it’s important to note that the Longhorns have yet to face an offense with a pulse through the first half of the season, as the best teams Texas has gone up against thus far have been Michigan and Oklahoma. Yes, both of those teams have stout defenses, but neither of those programs do anything close to approximate what the Longhorns will see from this Georgia offense on Saturday. 

Even as they’ve struggled with finding any sort of consistency following the loss to Alabama, the Bulldogs’ offense still checks in at sixth nationally in EPA per rush, 17th in EPA per dropback and ranks inside the top 20 in both points per quality possession and early downs EPA per College Football Insiders. Much like we saw with Oregon a week ago, it would also be fair to assume that Georgia might have kept a few things under wraps on offense over the past couple weeks with the knowledge that this massive game was on deck. Overall, we should get the Bulldogs’ best effort in a game that they might need to win to not endanger their College Football Playoff chances.

Pick #2: Over 55.5 Total Points (-110)

While Texas’ defense has yet to face an offense of this caliber, there are still plenty of concerns to be had with this Bulldogs team, and most of them come on the defensive side of the ball.

If there’s one thing we learned from when Alabama played Georgia a few weeks ago, it’s that teams can certainly generate success against this weaker Bulldogs’ secondary. Georgia is outside the top 50 in EPA per pass on defense and checks in at a shocking 87th in passing success rate. These are alarming numbers compared to what the Bulldogs defense usually produces in the Kirby Smart era, which shows that something isn’t quite right with this unit at the moment. 

I fully expect Steve Sarkisian, who is having his best season as a play-caller, and this loaded Texas offense to absolutely generate some explosive plays at home. The Longhorns’ offense is a well-oiled machine, checking in at sixth in passing success rate, third in EPA per pass and second in net points per drive. Even though this is the toughest test for Texas thus far, this is a matchup where Sarkisian and veteran quarterback Quinn Ewers should be comfortable on the offensive side of the ball – especially in front of the home crowd.

Pick #3: Carson Beck (UGA) over 258.5 passing yards (-110)

As mentioned previously, this is a Texas defensive secondary that has not been tested at all, even by the likes of Michigan and Oklahoma. That will change this week, as the Longhorns are in for a tough matchup against an in-form Carson Beck and this Georgia offense. 

Beck has been dealing since his second-half heroics against Alabama, posting a combined 700 yards and five touchdowns while completing 77% of his passes over the past couple of weeks. That should continue in a game where Georgia should be motivated to throw the ball and steer clear of this Texas defensive front. Additionally, a negative game script favors Beck throwing the ball with greater frequency as well, so if the Bulldogs get down in the second half of this game, Beck should have the green light to push the ball downfield and shoot for some explosive passing plays like we saw against Alabama. There’s too much value to ignore here.