Fresno State vs Kansas Picks - August 23

Week 0 of the 2025 college football season serves up a fascinating clash in Lawrence, Kansas, where the Fresno State Bulldogs visit the Kansas Jayhawks under the lights at David Booth Kansas Memorial Stadium. Kickoff is set for Saturday, Aug. 23, at 6:30 PM ET on FOX. Both teams finished 2024 with seven losses but enter this year with bowl-game aspirations. 

Kansas welcomes back veteran quarterback Jalon Daniels for one final run while unveiling its newly renovated stadium, while Fresno enters the Matt Entz era with NFL bloodlines at quarterback in E.J. Warner. The spread looks big, and that’s partially where the betting intrigue factors in.

Fresno State vs Kansas Predictions

Pick #1: Fresno State Bulldogs +12.5 over Kansas Jayhawks (-108) Click Here to Bet

Pick #2: Under 50.5 (-108) Click Here to Bet

Pick #3: Bryson Donelson Anytime Touchdown Scorer (-115) Click Here to Bet

PICK #1: Fresno State +12.5 over Kansas (-108)

Kansas has the better roster, home-field advantage and the experienced hand of Jalon Daniels leading the offense. But does that guarantee a comfortable win by two touchdowns? Not so fast. Matt Entz inherits a Fresno State program that has historically played up to Power Four opponents. And while the Bulldogs lack star power, quarterback E.J. Warner, son of Hall of Famer Kurt Warner, brings a steady, high-IQ presence. His 58 career touchdowns across stints at Temple and Rice show he can move the ball against competent defenses.

Kansas, meanwhile, has been anything but automatic as a heavy favorite. The Jayhawks were just 1-3 ATS as a home favorite in 2024, and they famously fell 23-20 to Mountain West foe UNLV last year. This is still a program learning how to close games. Daniels is healthier now, but he’s coming off a season where he threw almost as many interceptions (12) as touchdowns (14) after being named preseason Big 12 Player of the Year. The lingering back issue is to blame for a lot of his performance, but not all of it, and he will need to prove he can play at a higher level before we back him in Week 0 at this number. With a retooled offense and new backfield, it’s a stretch.

The Jayhawks should pull away late behind their ground game, but Fresno State’s secondary and Warner’s ability to sustain drives give the Bulldogs a shot to keep things within this number.

PICK #2: Under 50.5 Total Points (-108)

At first glance, Kansas’ explosive potential with Daniels back under center makes the over tempting. But recent trends and the personnel on both sides suggest otherwise. Fresno State averaged just 26.1 points per game last year (81st nationally) and has shifted toward a more run-heavy, pro-style system. That means more clock control and fewer possessions overall. Kansas was inconsistent offensively too, often sputtering in second halves and relying on close, grind-it-out contests.

Defensively, neither team is dominant, but Fresno ranked 65th nationally in scoring defense (24.8 PPG allowed), which is respectable enough to frustrate a Jayhawks team searching for rhythm in its receiving corps. And with the Bulldogs travelling across two time zones, expect Entz to emphasize a slower, mistake-free approach rather than a shootout.

Week 0 games often feature sloppiness, conditioning issues and turnovers, all of which favor lower totals. Kansas’ defense, even without star RB Devin Neal supporting the offense, has enough depth to keep Warner’s new-look Bulldogs out of the end zone consistently. The Jayhawks win ugly, Fresno hangs around, and this one lands somewhere in the 40s.

PICK #3: Bryson Donelson Anytime Touchdown Scorer (-115)

If Fresno is going to keep this game close, it’ll be through the legs of Bryson Donelson. The sophomore running back flashed big-time potential late in 2024, even in an offense that didn’t lean on the run. Now, with Fresno transitioning to a pro-style system, Donelson is expected to be the focal point. He’s a young but strong, downhill back, which is exactly the kind of player you trust near the goal line.

Kansas’ defensive front, while experienced, is still replacing key contributors. That means early-season communication lapses could open up running lanes. Donelson’s combination of power and vision makes him Fresno’s best bet to punch in a touchdown, especially since Warner isn’t known for mobility in the red zone.

Beyond his talent, there’s also motivation: Donelson is a local kid who committed to Fresno with an eye on becoming the Mountain West’s next great feature back. He wants the ball, and in Week 0, he should get plenty of it. With his projected workload and Fresno’s shift to the ground game, Donelson scoring at least once feels like the sharpest player prop on the board. This could be the start of something special for Donelson, who could be talked about as one of the nation’s best Group of Five backs one or two years from now.