Florida vs. Texas Prediction, CFB Week 7 Odds & Best Bets (10/17)

Fact checked at 6:48 AM ET, Oct 17, 2026

Odds as of Oct 17, 6:46 AM ET

Florida arrives in Austin in rough shape. The Gators are 4-2 but have lost two straight by a combined 83-36, 45-17 at Missouri and 38-19 at home to South Carolina, and they're expected to start sophomore Tramell Jones Jr. at quarterback. Aaron Philo hurt his shoulder against South Carolina and is questionable. Jones has thrown 24 passes all season, completing 19 for 184 yards with one touchdown and two interceptions.

That is a hard first start against this defense. No. 7 Texas (4-1) allows 16.0 points per game and has given up more than 23 only once, in last week's 27-24 loss to Oklahoma in Dallas. The line has followed the quarterback news, from Texas -9.5 at the open to -11.5 now, with Florida +340 to win outright and the total at 51.5. Florida's own defense hasn't held an SEC opponent under 28 points. Add it up and Texas should win by two scores, with Arch Manning's top receiver in the end zone along the way.

The game kicks off at 12:00 PM ET on ABC. The National Weather Service calls for sunshine, about 60 degrees at kickoff and a north-northeast wind near 10 mph.

Florida vs. Texas Predictions

• Pick #1: Texas -11.5 (-108)
• Pick #2: Cam Coleman Anytime Touchdown (+125)

PICK #1: Texas -11.5 (-108)

Florida lost its last two games by 28 and 19, and Philo started both. Now the Gators go on the road with a first-time starter against a defense allowing 16.0 points and 264.4 yards a game.

Texas does have three close results, but look at the opponents: Ohio State (24-23), at Tennessee (20-17) and Oklahoma in Dallas (a 27-24 loss). The other two FBS teams on the schedule lost 59-7 (Texas State) and 30-6 (UTSA). With a backup quarterback and a defense that has given up 39, 28, 45 and 38 points in four SEC games (and at least 271 passing yards in each), Florida looks closer to the second group.

The price is -108, so Texas needs to cover 51.9% of the time. Its offense is the catch. The Longhorns haven't scored more than 30 against an FBS team since the opener, so a cover probably needs the defense to keep Florida in the teens.

PICK #2: Cam Coleman Anytime Touchdown (+125)

When Texas has pulled away from people, Coleman has done the scoring. He had two touchdowns against Texas State and two against UTSA, and he caught five passes for 110 yards and a score against Oklahoma. That's five touchdowns in five games, with a score in three of them, and nobody else in the receiver room has more than three.

Florida's pass defense is a soft spot, with 271, 298, 340 and 279 yards allowed in its SEC games. Texas is without receiver Kaliq Lockett, though he has one catch this season, so that barely changes the target share.

At +125 the implied chance is 44.4%, and Coleman has found the end zone in 60% of his games. He comes up empty when Texas finishes its drives on the ground, which is what happened at Tennessee: Raleek Brown scored both touchdowns and Coleman caught one pass.

21+ (18+ where permitted). Odds subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.