Florida vs LSU Picks - September 13

Saturday night in Baton Rouge sets the stage for a classic SEC showdown, as the Florida Gators head into Death Valley to take on the LSU Tigers. Kickoff is scheduled for 7:30 PM ET at Tiger Stadium, with ABC carrying the national broadcast.

It’s the SEC opener for both teams, and implications are swirling on both sides. LSU is trying to prove it belongs among the very top contenders in the country, while Florida is desperate to recover from a shocking Week 2 home loss to South Florida. Billy Napier’s seat in Gainesville is getting warmer, and how his team performs in this game could be paramount to his job security. LSU eyes revenge after Florida handed the Tigers a 27–16 upset last year.

The oddsmakers have LSU installed as 7.5-point favorites, with the total set at 48.5. But with both teams flashing inconsistency, this matchup feels tighter than the market suggests.

Florida vs LSU Predictions

Spread: Florida +7.5 (-110) Click Here to Bet

Total: Under 47.5 Points (-110) Click Here to Bet

Player Prop: Aaron Anderson To Record 71+ Receiving Yards (-124) Click Here to Bet

Pick #1: Florida +7.5 (-110)

Florida looked disjointed in its shocking Week 2 upset loss to South Florida, but context matters. Sophomore QB DJ Lagway missed most of the summer with limited practice reps, which showed in his timing with receivers. Even so, he went 23-of-33 for 222 yards with a touchdown and a pick, flashing the arm talent that makes him one of the SEC’s most exciting young quarterbacks. Lagway can hit throws that Cade Klubnik can't, who LSU beat in Week 1.

This line ballooned after the Gators’ stumble, creating value. Florida’s defensive front, though very quiet to begin this year (111th in pressure rate), remains capable of disrupting LSU. Last year, the Gators sacked Garrett Nussmeier six times, and several of those pass rushers – Tyreak Sapp, George Gumbs Jr. and Kamran James – are back. The talented Caleb Banks should make his season debut, bolstering the unit when they need it most.

On the other side, LSU’s offensive line appears to be the weak link in an otherwise loaded roster. The Tigers rank 101st nationally in points per drive and sit 107th in negative play rate, losing yards on far too many snaps. They were outmuscled at times by Louisiana Tech, surrendering three sacks and struggling to open holes for the backs. That’s a concern against a Florida team that proved it can collapse the LSU pocket last year when LSU had a good-to-great offensive line.

Playing in Death Valley is no easy ask for Lagway, but if Florida can keep him upright, the Gators have enough talent to hang within one score.

Pick #2: Under 47.5 Points (-110)

This game profiles as a slugfest. LSU’s run game has been non-existent outside of one-off explosive plays, and the offensive line issues make sustaining long scoring drives difficult. Florida, meanwhile, could not establish any rhythm offensively against USF.

The Tigers’ defense has been elite against the run to begin the season, holding Clemson and Louisiana Tech to a combined 89 rushing yards on 48 carries. That’s bad news for Florida’s backfield, which leaned heavily on long runs from Ja’Kobi Jackson and Jadan Baugh to beat LSU last season. Replicating that kind of chunk-play success on the road seems unlikely.

Florida’s defense isn’t without holes, but it matches up well against LSU’s weaknesses. Nussmeier doesn’t have the escapability that USF’s Byrum Brown used to frustrate the Gators last week, meaning Florida’s pressure could force checkdowns and stalled drives.

Add in the atmosphere of a night game in Death Valley, and points will be at a premium. Expect both defenses to dictate the pace, with the winner grinding out a victory in a lower-scoring contest.

Pick #3: Aaron Anderson 71+ Receiving Yards (-124)

If LSU is going to move the ball, Aaron Anderson will be the focal point. The sophomore has already emerged as Nussmeier’s most trusted target, hauling in 14 receptions for 172 yards across the first two games. He posted 99 yards against Clemson and followed it with 73 against Louisiana Tech, consistently creating separation with his speed and quickness.

At just 5’8”, Anderson is deployed all over the formation – slot, wide and in motion – to stress defenses. With LSU’s running game sputtering, offensive coordinator Joe Sloan has leaned heavily on short passes and screens to Anderson as an extension of the run game. Florida’s defense, which has struggled with tackling and preventing yards after the catch, could be in trouble against a player like him.

Anderson topped 70 yards in seven games last season, including a 72-yard performance against Florida. Given LSU’s offensive limitations elsewhere, he should again be heavily featured and is a strong play to hit this over.