Florida State vs. Miami Prediction, CFB Week 7 Odds & Best Bets (10/17)

Fact checked at 7:23 AM ET, Oct 17, 2026

Odds as of Oct 17, 6:12 AM ET

Miami has had two weeks to get ready for this one. The Hurricanes are 5-0, ranked third and the last unbeaten team in the ACC, and they haven't played since a 41-13 win at Clemson on Oct 3. Florida State is 3-3 (1-2 ACC) and comes in eight days removed from a 44-20 loss at Louisville.

The difference is up front. Miami allows 9.8 points per game and has given up 213 rushing yards all season, and no FBS opponent has run for more than 78 against it (Stanford 78, Clemson 55, Wake Forest 22, Central Michigan 21). Defensive backs Xavier Lucas and Damari Brown and defensive end Marquise Lightfoot are back, too. Florida State's defense has gone the other way. Louisville ran for 397 yards on it and Alabama for 247, and the ACC availability report lists linebackers Blake Nichelson, Izayia Williams, Daylen Green and Noah LaVallee and defensive backs Karson Hobbs, Jamari Howard and Jordan Crutchfield as out. Running back Samuel Singleton Jr. and receiver Devin Carter are out as well.

Miami opened -16.5 and is now laying 20.5 at -111, with a total of 56.5. The 7:00 PM ET kickoff in Miami Gardens airs on ESPN, and the National Weather Service has showers and thunderstorms likely through the game. That adds up to a lopsided night: Florida State can't run, Darian Mensah picks apart a short-handed secondary, and the Seminoles' points come late, with their quarterback finishing the drives.

Florida State vs. Miami Predictions

• Pick #1: Miami -20.5 (-111)
• Pick #2: Cooper Barkate Anytime Touchdown (-135)
• Pick #3: Ashton Daniels Anytime Touchdown (+110)

PICK #1: Miami -20.5 (-111)

Three of Miami's four FBS wins cleared this number with room to spare: 45-6 at Stanford, 52-3 over Central Michigan and 41-13 at Clemson. Only the 33-20 win at Wake Forest fell short. Florida State has lost both of its road games, 50-36 at Alabama and 44-20 at Louisville, and both opponents ran wherever they wanted. Miami also gets 14 days of rest to Florida State's eight.

Three touchdowns is a lot to lay in a rivalry, and Miami won last season's meeting by only six. This year's gap is wider. Miami has beaten its FBS opponents by an average of 32 points, and Florida State lost its two road games by a combined 38. At -111 (52.6% implied), we'll lay it.

PICK #2: Cooper Barkate Anytime Touchdown (-135)

Barkate has scored in four of Miami's five games and in three of its four against FBS teams: a 61-yarder at Clemson on a five-catch, 98-yard night, a 13-yarder against Central Michigan and a 34-yarder at Stanford. He caught one against Florida A&M too. Wake Forest is the only team that kept him out of the end zone, holding him to four catches for 13 yards. That's 80% of his games, against a -135 price that implies 57.4%.

His share should grow. Receiver Joshua Moore, who has two touchdown catches, is out, and Mensah has completed 98 of 118 passes against FBS defenses. Florida State lists three defensive backs as out, and its secondary already allowed 430 passing yards to SMU and 320 to Alabama. Malachi Toney and tight end Elija Lofton will get end-zone looks of their own, and the rain could take away a deep shot or two.

PICK #3: Ashton Daniels Anytime Touchdown (+110)

Florida State won't run much on this defense, but when it does get near the goal line, Daniels finishes the drive. He has a rushing touchdown in all five of the Seminoles' games against FBS teams: a 4-yarder against New Mexico State, five against Virginia, two at Alabama, one against SMU and one at Louisville. Nine of his ten came from 8 yards or closer, and the other was an 81-yard run. With Singleton out, Florida State has one fewer option in short yardage.

The game we expect has Miami building a three-touchdown lead and Florida State getting in late. Something like 41-14 cashes all three picks. At +110, the implied chance is 47.6%, and he hasn't been kept out of the end zone by an FBS defense yet.

Miami's front is the obstacle. No FBS opponent has run for more than 78 yards on it, and if Florida State can't put drives together, Daniels never gets a short-yardage chance. The storms won't help either offense.

21+ (18+ where permitted). Odds subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.