Florida Atlantic vs. North Texas Prediction, CFB Week 9 Odds & Best Bets (10/29)

Fact checked at 7:32 AM ET, Oct 29, 2026

Odds as of 6:48 AM ET, Oct 29, 2026

Florida Atlantic (5-2, 2-1 American) visits North Texas (5-2, 3-0) at DATCU Stadium in Denton, and kickoff is 7:30 PM ET on ESPN. The Mean Green rank second nationally in scoring at 43.1 points per game. The Owls rank 134th in total defense and 129th in scoring defense, but they can score too: Caden Veltkamp leads the FBS in completions per game. Both teams are coming off shootouts, North Texas 49-39 at Navy and Florida Atlantic 51-49 over Rice, and both are 6-1 to the Over this season. We expect more of the same tonight, and our two picks are built on that kind of game, with each team's top receiver getting into the end zone.

North Texas is a 14.5-point favorite (-109), with Florida Atlantic +14.5 (-112), and the total is 76.5 (Over -116, Under -107). The total has climbed several points since it opened, and we found no injury news behind the move, so the market looks to be pricing two offenses that haven't stopped scoring. Both starting quarterbacks, Tayven Jackson and Veltkamp, are expected to play. The American doesn't post an availability report, and North Texas receiver Corri Milliner is expected to miss his third straight game. The forecast calls for clouds, temperatures in the mid-70s at kickoff and a light wind, with the best rain chances after midnight.

Florida Atlantic vs. North Texas Predictions

• Pick #1: Easton Messer Anytime Touchdown (-140)
• Pick #2: Justin Stevenson Anytime Touchdown (-160)

PICK #1: Easton Messer Anytime Touchdown (-140)

Messer has scored in five of Florida Atlantic's seven games, and he has more ways to get there than most receivers. He caught two touchdowns against Navy, returned a punt 73 yards for a score at UL Monroe, caught one against Texas Southern and one at Army, then scored five times against Rice: two rushing, two receiving and an 82-yard punt return. Against FBS opponents he is 4 for 6.

He was shut out in a 66-21 loss at Florida and a 16-10 win over FIU, the only Owls game this season that stayed under its total, and neither looks much like tonight. At -140 the implied chance is 58.3%, and his full-season record beats it.

Nobody on the team catches more passes. Messer leads the American at 8.29 catches per game and with 709 receiving yards, and Veltkamp completes more passes per game than any quarterback in the FBS. Florida Atlantic also leads the FBS with four return touchdowns, and two of them are his. As a two-touchdown underdog against an offense that scores 43 a game, the Owls will need points all night, and Messer is their leading receiver.

What could sink it is a repeat of the FIU game, slow and short on possessions. Florida Atlantic's offense is pass-first, and it averages barely three yards a carry, so if Veltkamp is off, there isn't much else. Make sure your book counts return touchdowns toward this prop, since two of his scores this season came on punt returns.

PICK #2: Justin Stevenson Anytime Touchdown (-160)

Stevenson has scored in four straight games and has two touchdowns in each of the last three: at Tulsa, against Charlotte and at Navy. The Navy game was his best of the season, eight catches for 209 yards. He leads North Texas with 41 catches, 662 yards and seven receiving touchdowns.

His full-season record falls short of the 61.5% that -160 implies. He didn't score in the first three games and had two catches in each of the first two. He also didn't record a stat at Utah last season. His role has changed since then. Starting with the Texas State game, he has 37 catches in five games and has scored in four of them, and he is now the clear top target for Jackson. Milliner, who had four catches for 66 yards in the opener, is expected to be out again, which leaves Stevenson as the receiver this passing game runs through.

Florida Atlantic ranks 129th in scoring defense and 134th in total defense, and North Texas has scored 40 or more in four straight games. More drives mean more trips inside the 20 for Jackson's favorite target.

Jahiem White could take some of those touchdowns. The North Texas running back has 11 rushing touchdowns, and Florida Atlantic ranks 137th against the run, so some of those red-zone trips could end with a handoff. A big North Texas lead would also tilt the second half toward the ground game. Four games is a short record, but it's the one that shows how North Texas uses him now.

21+ (18+ where permitted). Odds subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.