Early Look: Masters Odds, Favorites

It’s really never too early to start thinking about the Masters even if golf may not be your favorite sport. Baseball season will be in full swing by then after kicking off on March 30, the Final Four Championship game is on Monday, April 3 and then the Masters starts on Thursday, April 6. And if you’re lucky, you’ll either be at Augusta or on a beach somewhere watching it with your family on Spring Break. 

Jon Rahm, who is No. 1 in the world again,  laid waste to the field at Riviera last week, my guy Scottie Scheffler was  never really a threat, and Tiger Woods barely made the cut, creating plenty of drama on Friday afternoon. Tiger hobbled his way around Riviera and had a nice finish, tied for 45th and a $59K paycheck, while Rahm racked up $3.6 million for his efforts.

Speaking of the cut, it may be going away at some point. The idea of keeping all the golfers around for the weekend means fans get to watch their guy play even if he’s struggling and the players will have guaranteed payday. But one of Tiger’s most impressive (and least talked about) records is his 142-consecutive cuts made between 1998 and 2005. I’m pretty sure that’s a streak that will never be broken. Personally, I’m not a big fan of changing rules and impacting history so I’d like to see the cut stay. But this is a different world as the PGA competes with the cut-less, big-money LIV Tour. 

And speaking of the LIV Tour, they’ll be playing at Augusta this year, in case you were wondering. But only Cameron Smith, Dustin Johnson and Brooks Koepka have reasonable odds at this point. Phil Mickelson sits at +28000, which tells you how Vegas views his game right now. Other former Masters Champions on the LIV Tour who should be at Augusta include Bubba Watson, Sergio Garcia, Patrick Reed and Charl Schwartzel. 16 LIV players are currently qualified to play. 

Sign up for a free Oddscrowd account and play in our Weekly All Sports Pickem Contest!

Let’s take a look at the early favorites at Augusta right now.

Jon Rahm, Rory McIlroy, Scottie Scheffler +750

Rahm already has three wins this year, including the Sentry Tournament of Champions, The American Express and last week’s Genesis Invitational. He also finished T-7 at the Farmers Insurance Open and in third place at the WM Phoenix Open. Rahm has four Top 10s at Augusta, as well as a pair of T-27s. He’s never won the Masters but will be one of the heavy favorites in 2023. 

McIlroy has six Top 10s in 13 Masters appearances but he’s never won at Augusta. He was 2nd in 2022, T-5 in 2020 and 2018, T-7 in 2017, T-10 in 2016, fourth in 2015 and T-8 in 2014. 

Scheffler won the 2022 Masters and has been a Top 20 finisher in all three of his appearances. The fact he won last year is going to make him a heavy favorite and he already has a win under his belt this season at the WM Phoenix Open, finished 2nd at the Hero World Challenge and was T-3 at the World Wide Technology Championship at Mayakoba. 

All three of these guys have a shot to win it this year but Scheffler will be battling history as only three other players have ever won back-to-back Masters (Tiger, Jack Nicklaus and Nick Faldo). Rahm might be the hottest player entering the tournament and McIlroy will be a sentimental pick in hopes of getting his first Green Jacket. Throwing some cash at any of these guys makes sense.  

Cameron Smith (LIV) +1500

Smith was T-3 last year at -5, T-10 in 2021, T-2 in 2020 and T-5 in 2018. We’ll have to see how he’s playing in early April, but he’s got as good a chance as anyone to win it this year. 

Justin Thomas, Jordan Spieth +1700

Thomas hasn’t missed a cut in seven appearances and has two Top 10s (T-8, 4th) a Top 15, a Top 20 and two Top 25s to his credit. Thomas has yet to win this year but does have two Top 5s to his credit. 

Spieth missed the cut last year but was T-3 in 2021. He also went T-2, Win, T-2, T-11 and third from 2014 to 2018. Last year’s missed cut is a red flag but his history at Augusta is solid, making him a solid sleeper pick. 

Will Zalatoris, Collin Morikawa, Patrick Cantlay, Xander Schauffele +1900

Zalatoris was T-6 last year and 2nd in 2021 and now has three second-place finishes in Majors (Masters, PGA and U.S. Open). 

Morikawa was fifth last year and T-18 in 2021 and is one of the great American prospects at age 26. 

Cantlay hasn’t missed a cut in six appearances and his best finish was a T-9 in 2019. His next best finish was T-17 in 2020, while he wasn’t in contention in the others. 

Schauffele finished T-3 in 2021, T-17 in 2020 and T-2 in 2019 but missed the cut in 2022. Last year’s missed cut is a red flag but if he’s hot coming in, he could win it. 

Tony Finau +2400

Finau has three Top 10s in five trips to Augusta but was T-35 last year, failing to break 71 and shooting +6. Betting on him to finish Top 10 makes sense. 

Viktor Hovland +2800

Hovland has played in three Masters with a T-21 being his best finish in 2021. 

Dustin Johnson (LIV) +2900

DJ won the Masters in 2020, was T-2 in 2019, T-4 in 2016 and T-16 in 2015. He was also T-12 last year but his best days are behind him. He’s a longshot for a reason and will have to bring his A game if he’s going to have a shot this year. 

Max Homa +3000

Homa’s best Masters finish is a T-48 last year but he’s playing well, finishing second at Riviera last week, as well in the Farmers Insurance Open Fortinet Championship this year making him an interesting long shot.

Matthew Fitzpatrick, Hideki Matsuyama, Cameron Young +3200

Fitzpatrick hasn’t missed a cut at Augusta and his best finish was a T-7 back in 2016. He was in the hunt last year, finishing T-14, and he’s not a bad bet for a Top 10. 

Matsuyama won the Masters in 2021, was fifth in 2015, T-7 in 2016, T-11 in 2017, 19th in 2018, T-13 in 2020 and T-14 in 2022. He’s another player where it makes sense to bet him to hit the Top 10.

Young missed the cut last year at +10 so he’ll simply be looking to play the weekend this year.  

Tiger Woods, Shane Lowry, Brooks Koepka (LIV) +3600

Tiger has won five Green Jackets (1997, 2001, 2002, 2005 and 2019) and is trying to catch Jack Nicklas as the only other player to win six. Obviously, Tiger’s health and play are always an issue these days but after 2019’s improbable win, I wouldn’t put anything past him. If you’re a Tiger fan, throwing $100 bucks at him to win $3,600 might be worth it. Let’s just hope he can still walk by then.

Lowry and Koepka have never won at Augusta and Koepka has been searching for his game for a while now. Koepka came close in 2019 with a 2nd-place finish and was T-7 in 2020, but missed the cut last year. Lowry’s best finish was a T-21 in 2021. 

Notables

Justin Rose +5500

Rose has two second-place finishes and a total of six Top 10s but missed the cut last year. 

Patrick Reed, Bryson DeChambeau, Adam Scott +7000

Reed won the Masters in 2018 and had Top 10s in 2021 and 2020, but finished T-35 last year. At +7000 he might be worth the gamble, but he’s hard to root for given all the shady cheating allegations he’s racked up over the years. 

DeChambeau has never finished better than 21st and missed the cut last year. Injuries have derailed his career over the past couple years and it’s hard to see him winning, despite his length. His game just isn’t where it used to be. 

Scott won in 2013 but hasn’t finished better than T-34 over his last three trips to Augusta. He’s 43 and if he were to win he’d become one of the oldest players to do so. Nicklaus won at 46 years old in 1986 and Tiger was 43 when he last won the Masters. 

Rickie Fowler, Louis Oosthuizen +7500

Bubba Watson, Sergio Garcia +12000

Charl Schwartzel +19000

Phil Mickelson +28000

Mickelson won the Masters in 2004, 2006 and 2010 but he’s 52 years old now and it would take a miracle for him to do it again at this point. 

Lee Westwood +35000

Zach Johnson +43000

Best Bets

Early Pick: Rory McIlroy

Fade: Scottie Scheffler

Favorite for a Top 10 finish: Collin Morikawa