Duke vs Virginia ACC Championship Best Picks

The 2025 college football season has finally reached Championship Weekend, and Saturday’s slate features plenty of games that have real College Football Playoff implications. Arguably the most consequential game on the docket on Saturday comes in Charlotte, where the Duke Blue Devils will face off against the Virginia Cavaliers in a game that should decide the final College Football Playoff spot. The ripples from this game will certainly be felt across the college football landscape, so let’s dive into our experts’ college football predictions and best bets for the ACC title game.

Duke Blue Devils vs. Virginia Cavaliers ACC Championship Predictions

Pick #1: Virginia Cavaliers -3.5 over Duke Blue Devils (-115) Click Here to Bet

Pick #2: Over 57.5 (-110) Click Here to Bet

Pick #3: Chandler Morris (UVA) over 229.5 passing yards (-110) Click Here to Bet

PICK #1: Virginia -3.5 over Duke (-115) Click Here to Bet

We are less than a month removed from a regular season matchup that saw Virginia dominate the proceedings by a score of 34-17, as the Cavaliers limited Duke to a whopping 42 rushing yards in the process. While many analysts will speak about how it’s difficult to beat a team twice in the same season, the data doesn’t actually support that claim, and we don’t see Duke suddenly figuring out how to slow down the Virginia offense in this one. 

Not only is Duke the inferior team in this game, but the Blue Devils squeaked into this matchup on a unique tiebreaker and ordinarily wouldn’t be here in most circumstances. Furthermore, Duke has allowed over 33 points per game to its final six opponents of the season, and the Blue Devils are well outside the top 100 in success rate and points per drive allowed on the year. Compare that to a Virginia defense that ranks top-30 in both success rate and net points per drive, and it’s really no contest between these units. Lay the points with Virginia in this one. 

PICK #2: Over 57.5 (-110) Click Here to Bet

While Virginia has been playing to the under of late, this is a matchup that lends itself to a higher-scoring affair, and that’s what we should see in Charlotte. On one hand, while Duke’s defense can generate pressure and pick up sacks on occasion, the Blue Devils are horrendous in the secondary and they’ve been gashed in recent weeks regardless of competition. However, the Duke offense is very strong through the air thanks to quarterback Darian Mensah, and the Virginia pass defense is the weakness of this unit. The winner of this game likely has to score at least 30 points, so let’s take the over in the ACC title game. 

PICK #3: Chandler Morris (UVA) over 229.5 passing yards (-110) Click Here to Bet

Regardless of which team comes out on top in this game, our expert thinks Chandler Morris is poised for a massive day in a very favorable matchup against a Duke defense that has consistently struggled all season long. Morris racked up well over 300 yards through the air in the first meeting between these teams, and we don’t expect the Blue Devils to make the necessary adjustments needed to slow down Morris and the Cavaliers passing attack in the rematch. As long as Morris throws the ball 25 or more times on Saturday, we can expect him to clear this number with relative ease.