Dr. A's pick and over/under call for the New Orleans Bowl on Wednesday night

The 10-2 South Alabama Jaguars will take on the 8-5 Western Kentucky Hilltoppers tonight in the New Orleans Bowl which should be a high-scoring affair.

 

South Alabama’s 10-2 record was the best in school history and they were 7-1 in the Sun Belt Conference. The Hilltoppers got off to a rough start this season at 3-3 but turned it around in time to become bowl eligible. 

South Alabama is looking for its first-ever bowl win, while the Hilltoppers have two bowl wins in three appearances since 2019. The Jaguars have the fourth-best rushing defense in the nation at 90.2 yards per game and the 14th-best defense, allowing just 20.5 points per game. They finished the season with a +9.9 average scoring margin, and one of their losses was a tough one-point defeat at UCLA. That September loss to the Bruins cost them a shot at a Sun Belt title but they bounced back to win their final five games of the season. Their last loss was back on Oct. 20 to Troy and they’ve been rolling ever since, scoring an average of 32.2 points in those five games.

Jaguars' Senior QB Carter Bradley threw for 2,976 yards with 25 TDs and 10 interceptions and his two favorite targets are Jalen Wayne (795 yards) and Caullin Lacy (756). Junior La’Damian Webb led the rushing game with 1,014 yards and 13 TDs and his season was highlighted by an explosion against Georgia Southern that resulted in 247 yards and four touchdowns. Webb will be a key factor tonight against the Hilltoppers, who give up an average of 155.1 rushing yards per game. The Hilltoppers aren’t great at stopping the pass, either, ranking 71st in passing yards allowed, so Bradley should also figure mightily in this game. 

Hilltoppers QB Austin Reed ranked second in the country with 4,247 passing yards and threw 34 TDs for the nation’s 18th-best scoring offense (35.8 ppg). Running back Kye Robichaux led the Hilltoppers with just 496 rushing yards and three TDs and Malachi Corley led the receivers with 90 catches, 1,179 receiving yards and nine touchdowns. 

Western Kentucky averaged 45.3 points in its last three wins so I’m expecting a shootout tonight. But in the end a porous Western Kentucky defense is going to have its hands full with both South Alabama’s running and air attacks, and the Jaguars should be able to keep their winning streak alive with their first ever bowl win.

Oddscrowd top performer, cereal4646, is rolling with the Jaguars -3.5 and I’m going with him. The Oddscrowd algorithm also gives a 2.1 percent Exceptional Value Edge to South Alabama at -3.5. I also like this to be a high-scoring shootout and am taking the over in points scored. For more information and Best Picks in all of tonight’s sporting events visit Oddcrowd’s Best Picks page!

Pick: South Alabama -3.5 

Pick: Over 57.5 Points Scored

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