Daytona 500 preview and picks - Is it Chase Elliott's turn?
Are you ready for some racing? The Great American Race, also known as the Daytona 500, takes place on Sunday! Only three drivers have ever won back-to-back Daytona 500s, which means Austin Cindric’s chances are limited this week, as he was last year’s winner, while Denny Hamlin will try to keep it going.
However, this is Daytona, which is a Superspeedway, and the two or three “big ones” (aka crashes) are going to dictate who crosses the finish line first this week. The last two winners were not exactly household names when they took the checkered flag and their names are Cindric (2022) and Michael McDowell (2021). Prior to that, Hamlin won back-to-back Daytonas in 2019 and 2020, Austin Dillon won in 2018, Kurt Busch took the checkered flag in 2017, Hamlin won his first one in 2016, Joey Logano won in 2015, and some old timers, including Dale Earnhardt Jr. and Jimmie Johnson, took all the previous wins at Daytona. Shockingly, the previously retired Johnson is in the field this weekend and will start 39th, while Travis Pastrana (X Games hero and motocross specialist) will bring up the rear in the 40th starting spot.
Hamlin’s three wins are impressive and while we're not sold on him winning his fourth in eight years this week, he is one of the favorites, along with Kyle Larson, Chase Elliott and Ryan Blaney. Full disclosure: I have a photo on my phone of Chase and Blaney hanging out at my local bar, so I’m partial to them. Not to mention the fact that I live about 15 minutes from the Dawsonville, GA square, where the siren blows whenever an Elliott does something special in a NASCAR race. Chase is the 2020 NASCAR Champion and far from a sleeper in any event he's driving in, including this one.
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Drivers and Odds
Denny Hamlin +1200
Kyle Larson +1200
Chase Elliott +1200
Ryan Blaney +1200
Joey Logano +1400
Kyle Busch +1400
Ross Chastain +1600
William Byron +1600
Bubba Wallace +1800
Brad Keselowski +1800
Austin Cindric +2000
Tyler Reddick +2000
Kevin Harvick +2500
Christopher Bell +2500
Austin Dillon +2500
Alex Bowman +2500
It’s impossible to tell you who to pick if you’re in a multi-car fantasy league or a multi-car betting situation, but we can tell you who we like this week.
Alex Bowman and Larson secured the first two starting spots in qualifying, while Logano won the first Duel race, beating Christopher Bell by .018 at the finish line with some help from teammate Blaney. Aric Almirola won the second Duel just ahead of Cindric, holding off Kyle Busch, who was wrecked by Daniel Suarez, and Todd Gilliland, who went sideways late. Therefore, the Top 4 starters this week are Bowman, Larson, Logano and Almirola. And while Larson had an impressive season-long run two years ago, he is not a fan of Daytona and Superspeedways, and has had little success at such tracks. Fading him makes sense this week, despite his sweet starting spot and talent. Having said that, he's also due for a good showing at a Superspeedway and I wouldn't count him out, despite his past struggles.
Here are our thoughts on the favorites and where the smart money will go this Sunday.
Back-to-back winners are rare at Daytona and it’s only happened three times. Hamlin has won it three times in the last seven years, including back-to-backs in 2019-20. Hamlin is a fine pick in a fantasy lineup and is one of the favorites. If you’re torn between taking him and Larson, we’d recommend Hamlin.
The top four starters on the grid (Bowman, Larson, Logano and Almirola) are all fine picks, but we’re not automatically giving them a free pass with a couple of big wrecks surely in their future. Larson has been a weekly money pick for most of the last two seasons, while Bowman, Logano and Almirola are more sleeper picks than sure things. However, Logano’s Duel win on Thursday night is worth a bump and we like him to do well on Sunday.
Elliott has never won a Daytona 500 and it would seem that he’s due after finishing 10th in last year’s race. He’s a great driver, the fan favorite, and drives for Hendricks, which is a good thing. Elliott has basically won everywhere else and will be in all my lineups this week. He finished second in here 2021 and has a chance to win anytime his car is still running at the end of a race.
Kyle Busch is now with Chevy and Richard Childress racing after leaving Toyota, and has one win at Daytona under his belt, although it was not at the 500. We have no idea how he’ll fare with his new team, but I’m not messing with him this weekend.
Logano has a win and nine Top 10 finishes under his belt here and got the win in the Duels to propel him near the top of the pack. He’s worth a flier in any betting scenario and is +1400 to win.
Blaney has four Top 5s at Daytona but has never won and has a grand total of seven wins in nine years in NASCAR. If anyone is due to break through at Daytona, it’s Blaney. Arguably, Blaney should have won last year and pairing him with Elliott is dreamy.
Cindric’s record at Daytona is ridiculous with two Top 5s and a win to his credit. He’s starting in the sixth position and while it’s not likely that he’ll win again, if he can avoid the chaos when the big crashes happen he should be among the frontrunners in the end.
Bubba Wallace has four Top 5s in 11 races at Daytona and two second-place finishes, including last year to Cindric. Sunday could be his breakthrough win. Austin Dillon won this race in 2018 and Kevin Harvick won in 2007, making them solid sleeper picks.
Starting Grid
1. Alex Bowman
2. Kyle Larson
3. Joey Logano
4. Aric Almirola
5. Christopher Bell
6. Austin Cindric
7. Ryan Blaney
8. Chase Elliott
9. Chris Buescher
10. Brad Keselowski
11. Michael McDowell
12. Corey LaJoie
13. Kevin Harvick
Notables
15. Bubba Wallace
16. Martin Truex
18 Denny Hamlin
21. William Byron
23. Ross Chastain
24. Daniel Suarez
25. Erik Jones
26. Tyler Reddick
27. Austin Dillon
36. Kyle Busch
39. Jimmie Johnson
The bottom line here is that the Daytona 500 is a crapshoot, as the one, two or three big wrecks that are coming will determine the outcome. But you can’t go wrong by teaming some favorites with some long shots and if we had to pick four drivers to roll with, this would be our squad: Chase Elliott, Denny Hamlin, Austin Cindric and Ryan Blaney.
Larson, Ryan Bowman, Logano, Christopher Bell, Chris Buecsher (who no one is talking about), Harvick and Wallace are also solid picks. In the end, betting on the Daytona 500 is not for the weak at heart. But it’s also fun to have a dog in the fight.
