Columbia vs. Penn Prediction, CFB Week 7 Odds & Best Bets (10/16)

Fact checked at 9:16 AM ET, Oct 16, 2026

Odds as of Oct 16, 9:14 AM ET

Both teams lost their Ivy League opener, and Friday night at Franklin Field puts the best defense in the FCS on the field with an offense that has struggled to score. Penn allows 225.0 yards and 111.5 passing yards per game, first in the FCS in both, and nobody has put up more than 20 points on it. The Quakers' own offense averages 15.2 points, 117th of 124 FCS teams. Now its starting quarterback is hurt. Freshman Miles Teodecki left the 24-20 win over Howard with a knee injury, coach Rick Santos hasn't named a starter, and junior Karson Siqueiros-Lasky gets the job if Teodecki can't go.

Columbia (3-1) throws for 313.5 yards a game behind Chase Goodwin, but the Lions have already seen a defense like this one. Against Princeton, the stingiest scoring defense in the FCS, they piled up 422 yards and scored seven points. Add showers and thunderstorms at kickoff and this has the look of a slog.

Penn is a 6.5-point favorite with the total at 46.5, and Columbia is +187 on the moneyline. Kickoff is Friday at 7:00 PM ET on ESPNU.

This sets up as a low-scoring game decided by less than a touchdown: Penn's defense keeps Columbia's passing game in check, the rain helps it, and Penn's offense doesn't have the firepower to pull away. That gives us the Under and Columbia with the points.

Columbia vs. Penn Predictions

• Pick #1: Under 46.5 (-111)
• Pick #2: Columbia +6.5 (-105)

PICK #1: Under 46.5 (-111)

No Penn game has reached 46.5 points. The Quakers won 20-7 at Bucknell, lost 20-7 to Lehigh, lost 14-10 at Dartmouth and beat Howard 24-20, for totals of 27, 27, 24 and 44, and that 44 needed a 14-point Penn fourth quarter to get there.

To break that pattern, Columbia has to throw, and that runs straight into Penn's strength. Penn gives up 15.25 points per game, seventh in the FCS, and 4.74 yards per pass attempt. The Lions average 43 attempts a game. When they met Princeton, Goodwin threw 51 times for 331 yards and Columbia reached the end zone once.

The forecast helps, too. The National Weather Service hourly forecast for Philadelphia has showers and thunderstorms at 7 PM with an 80% chance of rain, then rain showers through 9 PM and a northwest wind around 15 mph. The 6abc AccuWeather forecast calls for strong to severe storms Friday evening. A team that throws 43 times a game wants none of that.

Penn won't push the score up by itself. Teodecki has completed 69 of 123 passes for 607 yards with two touchdowns and three interceptions, and the Quakers have topped 20 points once. Siqueiros-Lasky was 19-of-29 for 226 yards and two touchdowns in relief against Howard, his first action of the season. That was one game.

The price of -111 implies a 52.6% chance, and we have the Under better than that. What could beat it is Columbia's history of shootouts: 74 points with Lafayette and 69 with Marist. Both numbers come with an asterisk: Lafayette was 34-34 at the end of regulation, and the Marist game included a blocked field goal returned for a touchdown, a fumble return for another and a safety. The other worry is Columbia's run defense, which gives up 173 yards a game, and a healthy Teodecki is Penn's leading rusher.

PICK #2: Columbia +6.5 (-105)

Penn hasn't shown it can put teams away. Its only win by seven or more came at Bucknell, which scores 10.8 points a game, 123rd in the FCS. Against Howard the Quakers were 11.5-point favorites, trailed 20-10 after three quarters and won by four. Put the spread and the total together and the market has Penn scoring about 26.5 points Friday, more than its season high of 24.

The quarterback injury makes a big margin even harder. Teodecki leads Penn with 166 rushing yards, and against Howard, once you take out his two carries for 48 yards, the Quakers' other 20 rushing attempts netted 22 yards. Whether Penn gets a less-than-healthy Teodecki or Siqueiros-Lasky in his first start, the offense isn't getting better this week.

Columbia's turnovers matter less against this defense, too. The Lions have six giveaways in four games, but Penn has forced two turnovers all season, so the short fields that turn a three-point game into a 10-point game haven't come often. Columbia has lost by more than six once, and it won both of its overtime games.

A -105 price needs a 51.2% cover rate. That one loss by more than six is the problem: Princeton beat Columbia 35-7, and Penn's defense belongs in the same class. Columbia's run defense could also let a healthy Teodecki stretch the lead, and the market has leaned Penn's way since the line opened Wednesday.

21+ (18+ where permitted). Odds subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.