Colorado State vs. Texas State Prediction, CFB Week 7 Odds & Best Bets (10/15)

Fact checked at 8:10 AM ET, Oct 15, 2026

Odds as of Oct 15, 7:50 AM ET

Both teams are 2-3 and 0-1 in the Pac-12, and this one should come down to Texas State's ground game against the worst run defense in the conference. The Bobcats average 531.6 yards a game, the most in the Pac-12 and third in FBS, and 263.6 of those come on the ground, fifth nationally. Colorado State gives up 228.6 rushing yards a game (136th in FBS) and 38.6 points (133rd), and it ranks last in the Pac-12 in scoring, total and run defense. The Rams pulled defensive coordinator Tyson Summers in the middle of the 56-26 loss to Oregon State on Oct. 3. Kenny McClendon calls the defense now, and he inherits a group that allowed 41, 59 and 56 points in its last three games.

The Rams can score, though. They have put up at least 23 in every game and average 37.4 points, and K'saan Farrar is expected to make his third straight start at quarterback with Hauss Hejny (hamstring) questionable. Texas State's pass defense gives up 300.4 yards a game, 138th in FBS. Colorado State is shorthanded up front: the Pac-12 availability report lists offensive linemen Zach Smith, Diego Rodriquez and Jayden Tuia, tight end Grant Houser and receiver Troy Foster out, and leading receiver RJ Vick questionable. Texas State will be without running back Davian Jackson and defensive back Ryan Nolan.

Texas State is -14 (-112), Colorado State +14 (-110) and +450 on the moneyline. The total opened as low as 66.5 and has bounced between 69.5 and 72.5 this week and sits at 70.5 now. Kickoff is Thursday at 8:00 PM ET at UFCU Stadium in San Marcos on CBS Sports Network, and the NWS calls for mid-80s at kickoff cooling into the upper 70s, a light wind and no rain.

Our read: Texas State runs at will, and Colorado State answers through the air. Both picks cash in that game, Burgess getting his yards and the score climbing past the total.

Colorado State vs. Texas State Predictions

• Pick #1: Torrance Burgess Jr. 120+ Rushing Yards (-110)
• Pick #2: Over 70.5 (-110)

PICK #1: Torrance Burgess Jr. 120+ Rushing Yards (-110)

Colorado State's run defense has allowed 143 yards to Wyoming, 206 to FCS Southern Utah, 332 to BYU, 239 to UTSA and 223 to Oregon State, close to 6.0 yards a carry. Burgess, Texas State's lead back, gets the first crack at it. He has 614 yards on 84 carries, 7.3 a pop, and went for 149 against UTSA, 214 against North Texas and 140 on just nine carries against FCS Incarnate Word. His two misses came against Texas (34) and at San Diego State (77 on 21 carries).

His workload should grow, too. Davian Jackson is out after taking 64 carries for 315 yards and five touchdowns, roughly 13 carries a game that need a home. Jaylen Jenkins and Taji Atkins will get some of them, but Burgess is the starter. He was questionable before the San Diego State game with an undisclosed injury, played anyway, and isn't on this week's report.

At -110, the price implies 52.4%, and we like him to clear it. What could go wrong: Brad Jackson carried 22 times at San Diego State, and a lopsided score could put Burgess on the sideline for the fourth quarter.

PICK #2: Over 70.5 (-110)

These two teams have been beating totals all year. Colorado State's games have gone over the closing number five times in five, and Texas State's four times in five. The Rams' games have finished with 48, 82, 64, 104 and 82 points, the Bobcats' with 66, 57, 84, 73 and 60 (two of those ten were against FCS teams).

The averages land above the number. Colorado State scores 37.4 and allows 38.6, Texas State scores 34.8 and allows 33.2, and pairing each offense with the other defense comes out to about 72. Texas State converts 56.2% of its third downs, third in FBS, against a Colorado State defense that allows 47.2% (128th), and the Bobcats have averaged 46 points in three home games. A -110 price works out to a 52.4% break-even.

The number is the worry. At 70.5 it is higher than any closing total in either team's ten games, and only five of those ten cleared 70. Texas State is 135th in red-zone scoring, so some drives could end in field goals, and the Rams' missing linemen and receivers could slow them down.

21+ (18+ where permitted). Odds subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.