College Football Week 9 Saturday Best Picks

CFB Week 9 Saturday Best Picks

Week 9 of the college football season brings a slate full of ranked matchups and potential upsets across the board. From a dual-threat quarterback prop in Norman to a trap line in Ames and a Saturday night showdown in Baton Rouge, there’s plenty to break down.

Here are three of our favorite plays for Saturday’s action.

CFB Week 9 Predictions

Pick #1: John Mateer Over 39.5 Rushing Yards in Ole Miss Rebels vs Oklahoma Sooners (-115)

Pick #2: Iowa State Cyclones -2.5 over BYU Cougars (-110)

Pick #3: Garrett Nussmeier Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (-110) in Texas A&M Aggies vs LSU Tigers

Pick #1: John Mateer Over 39.5 Rushing Yards in Ole Miss vs Oklahoma (-115)

Oklahoma quarterback John Mateer has yet to flash his full dual-threat ability since returning from hand surgery, but this weekend’s matchup against Ole Miss sets up as the perfect opportunity.

Mateer has totaled just 19 rushing yards over his last two games, largely due to pressure and conservative play-calling. Expect that to change. Ole Miss’ defense ranks 99th nationally in rushing yards allowed (166.7 per game) and has been routinely gashed by mobile quarterbacks. Arkansas’ Taylen Green (115 yards), Tulane’s Jake Retzlaff (51 yards) and Georgia’s Gunnar Stockton (59 yards) all ran at will against the Rebels’ front.

That weakness aligns perfectly with Oklahoma’s renewed commitment to the ground game. In last week’s 26-7 win at South Carolina, the Sooners rolled up 159 rushing yards as Tory Blaylock (101 yards, TD) and Xavier Robinson (58 yards, TD) both found success between the tackles. With the backfield forcing Ole Miss to respect the inside run, Mateer should see wider lanes on zone reads and rollouts.

Mateer’s escapability remains his best weapon. If Oklahoma leans into RPOs and play-action keepers early, Mateer has a strong chance to break a few chunk runs. Even factoring in sacks, 40+ rushing yards looks comfortably within reach in this matchup.

Pick #2: Iowa State -2.5 over BYU (-110)

Unranked Iowa State being favored over undefeated BYU is one of the most telling Week 9 lines on the board, and it’s a signal worth trusting.

BYU sits at 7–0 (4–0 Big 12) and ranks 11th nationally, but their margin for error has been razor-thin. The Cougars’ last three conference wins came by 3, 6 (in double OT) and 3 points. Their run-first offense (232.9 rushing YPG, 10th FBS) has been awesome, but QB Bear Bachmeier hasn’t faced a defense as disciplined as Iowa State’s.

Matt Campbell’s Cyclones (5–2, 2–2 Big 12) are healthier coming off a bye week, whereas BYU just earned a physical and emotional win over their rival Utah last week. This is a classic “prove-it, got-to-have-it” spot for Iowa State, who’s 7th nationally in fewest penalty yards per game and playing at home in a near pick’em line that screams value.

Offensively, QB Rocco Becht (1,622 yards, 9 TDs, 3 INTs) and RB Abu Sama III (481 yards, 4 TDs) will need to stay patient against BYU’s physical front seven, but the Cougars’ secondary has shown cracks in man coverage. Expect Becht to find mismatches against linebackers and safeties, especially in play-action scenarios off Sama’s zone runs.

BYU’s +6 turnover margin has masked a defense that bends more than it should, and with Iowa State’s strong third-down defense (48th FBS) and home-field advantage in Ames, this sets up as the Cougars’ first stumble.

Pick #3: Garrett Nussmeier Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (-110) in Texas A&M Aggies vs LSU Tigers

Saturday night in Baton Rouge doesn’t get much bigger than this. The No. 3 Texas A&M Aggies (7–0) visit Tiger Stadium to face No. 20 LSU (5–2) in primetime, with the Tigers desperate for a statement win and A&M pushing for a playoff berth.

If LSU pulls the upset, it’ll be because QB Garrett Nussmeier finally delivers his breakout game. The junior entered 2025 with first-round hype and has started to regain form, posting a 66.4% completion rate with 11 touchdowns to 5 interceptions. Moreover, he’s thrown for multiple touchdowns in back-to-back games despite dealing with one of the SEC’s most inconsistent offensive lines.

The Aggies have surrendered five passing touchdowns across their last two games, plus two more back in Week 2 to Utah State. Nussmeier’s connection with Aaron Anderson and Zavion Thomas has sharpened, and LSU’s offense has quietly looked sharper since its bye. 

With LSU likely needing to trade points to stay competitive, two or more touchdown passes from Nussmeier feels like one of the sharper plays on the Saturday board.