CFB Week 10 Saturday Best Picks

Three college football matchups headline the first Saturday of November: USC visiting Nebraska in a Big Ten clash under the lights, Penn State traveling to Columbus to face the nation’s No. 1 team and a ranked SEC tilt at Neyland Stadium when Oklahoma and Tennessee battle to stay alive in the playoff conversation.

With the pressure rising and the stakes at their highest, these are the spots where edges can be found.

NCAAF Week 10 Predictions Click Here to Bet

• USC -5.5 (-115) vs Nebraska
• Penn State +21 (-113) vs Ohio State
• Tennessee -2.5 (-130) vs Oklahoma

PICK #1: USC -5.5 (-115) vs Nebraska Click Here to Bet

USC enters fresh off a bye week after a wet, turnover-filled road loss at Notre Dame. The Trojans remain the No. 1 offense in the country in total yardage and passing yards per game, and this matchup plays directly into their strengths. Nebraska’s pass defense is sturdy, but the run defense has been a major vulnerability, ranking 92nd nationally in yards allowed on the ground. USC can win this game by leaning on its offensive line and running the ball downhill, controlling the game with Waymond Jordan and the tailback rotation.

Nebraska’s offense has somewhat stalled due to young quarterback Dylan Raiola’s struggles behind an offensive line that hasn’t been up to snuff. USC’s front should be able to win at the line of scrimmage, disrupt protection and force Nebraska into uncomfortable passing situations. While USC has not been good on the road, Nebraska’s weaknesses inside and in the pocket are exactly where the Trojans can dictate terms.

This is a big ask for Nebraska to keep up for four quarters when USC’s tempo and overall talent advantage start to take over. If the Trojans show up focused, they should be able to bully their way to a 7-10 point win. It’s not easy backing USC on the road, but this is a favorable matchup and a buy-low spot after a rough performance in South Bend.

PICK #2: Penn State +21 (-113) vs Ohio State Click Here to Bet

Penn State’s season has taken a stunning downturn with four straight losses and the season-ending injury to quarterback Drew Allar, but this roster still has plenty of experience and pride entering a massive rivalry road game. Despite their struggles, the Nittany Lions remain one of the best pass defenses in the country, ranking fifth nationally in passing yards allowed. Ohio State’s dominance is built on elite quarterback play, explosive receivers and suffocating defense, but Penn State is better positioned than most to slow down the Buckeyes’ passing attack.

Coming off a bye week, Penn State’s defense should have the chance to settle in and force Ohio State to work methodically. The Nittany Lions’ run game with Nick Singleton and Kaytron Allen still commands respect and will be leaned on heavily to shorten the game and protect freshman quarterback Ethan Grunkemeyer.

Ohio State is fully capable of winning comfortably, but asking them to clear a three-touchdown spread against a very talented defense is aggressive. Penn State has lost every game this season by six points or fewer, and the fight in this locker room remains strong. Ohio State wins, but the number gives us a clear edge on the underdog.

PICK #3: Tennessee -2.5 (-130) vs Oklahoma Click Here to Bet

This top-20 SEC night matchup in Knoxville has massive stakes for both teams, and Neyland Stadium will be at full playoff-intensity volume. Tennessee’s offense ranks among the best in the country in total yards, scoring and passing efficiency and quarterback Joey Aguilar is coming off a 396-yard performance as the Vols dropped 56 points on Kentucky. Their tempo and spacing concepts create matchups that stress even the best defenses.

Oklahoma’s defensive statistics are outstanding on paper, but the Sooners just allowed Ole Miss to convert a slew of third-and-longs while failing to generate pressure at home. 

Quarterback John Mateer is not the same playmaker following hand surgery, and defenses have keyed in on stopping his legs. That has forced Oklahoma into being far too one-dimensional, ranking outside the top 80 in rushing offense. The Sooners’ turnover issues are even more concerning, entering the week ranked 104th nationally in turnover margin per game.

Tennessee also benefits from having former Oklahoma offensive coordinator Seth Littrell on staff, who spent last season battling Brent Venables’ defense every single day in practice. That familiarity matters in a game decided by matchups and preparation.

Oklahoma has not faced a true road test like this under the lights in a hostile SEC arena. Tennessee has the explosive play advantage, the environment advantage and the urgency edge, with New Mexico State on deck, while Oklahoma must turn around and play Alabama next week. Tennessee finds a defensive takeaway or two, feeds off the home crowd and covers at home.