Fact checked at 5:47 AM ET, Nov 11, 2026Odds as of 4:54 AM ET, Nov 11, 2026
New York has owned this matchup lately. The Knicks swept the Cavaliers in last season's conference finals and won 109-97 in Cleveland four nights ago, and across those five straight wins they have held Cleveland to 99.0 points a game. They meet again at Madison Square Garden at 7:00 PM ET, with the Knicks (6-4) favored by 4.5. New York allows 102.3 points a game, the fewest in the league, and has given up 90, 105, 97 and 85 during a four-game winning streak. Cleveland (5-6) has lost four of its last five, the latest a 124-112 loss at Charlotte two nights ago. The bet here is that the Knicks' defense keeps Cleveland's offense quiet again, James Harden first of all. New York is on the second night of a back-to-back after beating Milwaukee 117-85 at home last night, and both picks assume the Knicks play their regular rotation. On the latest injury report, Cleveland lists Sam Merrill out and Jaylon Tyson questionable.
Cavaliers vs. Knicks Predictions
Pick #1James Harden Under 27.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists−115
Harden's second season in Cleveland has started quietly. He has started all 11 games and is averaging 15.3 points, 4.8 rebounds and 5.7 assists on 36.4% shooting. He takes 12.0 shots a game, down from 13.5 in his 26 regular-season games with the Cavaliers last season. Add up those averages and you get 25.8. He has stayed under 27.5 in eight of the 11 games.
The Knicks have been a bad matchup for him. His last five games against them are the four from last season's conference finals and the one four nights ago. In those he averaged 14.2 points on 36.5% shooting and cleared this number once, with 29 in 41 minutes. Four nights ago it was seven points on 2-of-9 shooting, two rebounds and five assists in 34 minutes.
Minutes are where it can go wrong. All three of his games over 27.5 this season came when he played at least 35 minutes, one of them in overtime, and he has stayed under in all eight games of 34 minutes or fewer. A tight fourth quarter could keep him on the floor. A scorer with his history can also get hot for a night, but his slow start has lasted 11 games. The -115 price translates to a 53.5% chance.
Pick #2Under 221.5−110
New York's games have stayed under 221.5 in eight of 10 this season, and both exceptions came against Chicago, which allows 129.3 points a game, the most in the league. At the Garden it is five of six. The Knicks don't score enough to spoil it, either. They average 110.6 a game, 22nd in the league, and have topped 111 only against Chicago, twice, and Milwaukee.
Cleveland is the team that pulls totals up. The Cavaliers score 116.5 a game, and only three of their 11 games have stayed under this number. Against New York, that offense has not shown up. In the five straight losses Cleveland scored 104 (in overtime), 93, 108, 93 and 97, and three of the five games finished under 221.5. The two that went over needed 121 and 130 from the Knicks.
The same thing can happen tonight. Cleveland allows 115.0 a game, 19th in the league, and just gave up 124 to a Charlotte team that scores the fewest points in the league. If New York's shooters get loose, the Knicks can carry this total by themselves, and most of the money is on the Over. The back-to-back shouldn't cost New York much, because no Knick played more than 29 minutes in last night's blowout. At -110, the Under carries an implied 52.4%.
21+ (18+ where permitted). Odds subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.
