CFB Week 8 Saturday picks - October 19

Week 7 of the college football season is in the rearview mirror, and it certainly lived up to the hype as Alabama held off a big fightback from South Carolina, Texas decimated Oklahoma and Oregon pulled off one of their biggest regular-season wins ever against Ohio State. What will Week 8 do for an encore? Well, we should have another exciting weekend of college football with this week’s mammoth slate on tap, featuring a number of massive games in the Big Ten and SEC. Let’s get into our best bets for the Week 8 college football slate on Saturday.

Predictions

Pick #1: Arkansas Razorbacks +3 over LSU Tigers (-110) 

Pick #2: Miami Hurricanes vs Louisville Cardinals Over 59.5 (-110)

Pick #3: Nebraska Cornhuskers +6.5 over Indiana Hoosiers (-105)

PICK #1: Arkansas +3 over LSU (-110)

The best situational spot of the week comes in Fayetteville, as Arkansas is coming off a bye and will get to host an LSU team that just picked up an improbable overtime victory over Ole Miss in Death Valley. However, after digging into the box score a bit and looking through the numbers, it’s pretty clear that LSU probably shouldn’t have won that game. There was a massive net success rate discrepancy in the game, which indicates that LSU’s offense has real issues, despite the talent that the Tigers have at the skill positions.

On the other side, Arkansas’ offense is 25th in EPA per rush and 28th in rushing success rate this season, and quarterback Taylen Green has proven to be a dual-threat weapon that should see success at home. What’s even more encouraging is that the Hogs are playing great defensively, especially coming off a performance where they held Tennessee to just 156 passing yards. 

The way to beat this Arkansas defense is on the ground, but LSU can’t run the ball with consistency, with metrics that signify this rushing attack is pretty average. Therefore, if the Razorbacks are able to consistently get the Tigers in third and long situations, that should allow their talented group of pass rushers to get after quarterback Garrett Nussmeier, who was just running for his life against Ole Miss last week. Arkansas could easily win this one outright, so let’s take the full three points at home.

PICK #2: Miami vs Louisville Over 59.5 (-110)

While Louisville hasn’t been great in recent weeks, the Cardinals still have one of the better offenses in this conference and a coach in Jeff Brohm who is no stranger to success as an underdog. Tyler Shough and this balanced Cardinals offense should be ready to attack a Hurricanes defense that surrendered six plays of 20+ yards against Virginia Tech and seven plays of 20+ yards against California just a few weeks ago. There will be explosive plays available to this Louisville offense, and I trust that Brohm can dial up a few shot plays that ultimately lead to touchdowns for the Cardinals.

As for the Miami offense, quarterback Cam Ward is a Heisman Trophy contender and he leads a Hurricanes passing offense that is third in passing success rate, fourth in EPA per dropback and sixth in Early Downs EPA. Ward should hit plenty of explosive plays against a Louisville defense that is 107th in opponent passing success rate and 79th in EPA per pass on the season. At the end of the day, both teams should continue to score throughout this game, and don’t expect Miami to take its foot off the gas at any point in the second half given how the last few weeks have gone. 

PICK #3: Nebraska +6.5 over Indiana (-105)

While Indiana has looked every bit the part of an undefeated team this season, the Cornhuskers have the best defense on the Hoosiers’ schedule to this point. Nebraska also carries a top-35 havoc rate over the past five weeks, and the Cornhuskers could easily frustrate an Indiana offense that is outside the top 40 in havoc allowed over that span despite a strength of schedule that ranks 112th in the nation. 

On the other side, Nebraska has been solid offensively over the past month, with top-35 marks in points per opportunity and total scoring opportunities. However, the Cornhuskers have not been able to capitalize on as many of those trips as they would like, which could rear its ugly head once again in this one. As good as Indiana has been on offense, the Hoosiers’ defense has given up an average of more than four points on quality possessions allowed. Indiana is also 52nd in havoc generated and outside the top 70 in defensive points per opportunity despite a very easy schedule. All of this points us in the direction of the Cornhuskers being able to put points on the board and keep this game within six points.