CFB Week 7 Saturday Best Picks

Week 7 of the college football season brings a Saturday slate packed with tricky lines and exciting matchups. While some top programs face potential trap spots, several underdogs and totals look ripe for value.

We focused on three spots where market perception has swung too far: a South Carolina team trending upward, catching points at LSU, a slow-paced Big Ten grinder in Champaign, and an Arizona State squad that can hang late against Utah.

College Football Predictions

• South Carolina +9.5 (-110) vs. LSU
• Ohio State vs. Illinois Under 50.5 Total Points (-115)
• Arizona State +6 (-110) vs. Utah

Pick #1: South Carolina +9.5 (-110) vs. LSU

The market keeps trusting LSU’s name brand, but the tape hasn’t justified it. The Tigers offense ranks 84th nationally (363.8 YPG) and has scored 20 points or fewer in three of their four games against FBS opponents. Their offensive line has struggled to open lanes, averaging just 104.8 rushing yards per game (119th), and quarterback Garrett Nussmeier has been inconsistent behind it.

South Carolina, on the other hand, is quietly improving. Quarterback LaNorris Sellers has stabilized the Gamecocks’ offense with smart decision-making (67% completion rate, 4 TDs and 1 INT) and mobility that extends drives. They’re fresh off a bye after routing Kentucky 35-13, giving Shane Beamer extra prep time for LSU’s defense.

Yes, Tiger Stadium at night is a tough environment, but LSU’s attack simply hasn’t proven capable of pulling away from quality, well-coached opponents. Their “best” wins: 17-10 vs. Clemson and 20-10 vs. Florida, came against two majorly disappointing teams, and even in those, LSU’s offense sputtered.

Both teams come in off byes, but South Carolina’s defense (18.8 PPG allowed, 33rd FBS) has been far more consistent. The Gamecocks are +5 in turnover margin (16th) and match up well against an LSU offense lacking identity. With both teams likely to lean on defense and field position, 9.5 points feels inflated. Expect a competitive, low-scoring affair where South Carolina’s balance and discipline keep them inside the number.

Pick #2: Ohio State vs. Illinois Under 50.5 (-115)

When two elite defenses meet, oddsmakers often can’t shade the total low enough, and this looks like one of those spots. Ohio State’s defense has been lights-out, leading the country in scoring defense (5.0 PPG) while allowing opponents to convert just 20% on third downs (second-best nationally).

Illinois brings a strong passing offense but plays at one of the slowest tempos in the Big Ten, ranking outside the top 100 in plays per minute. The Illini’s red-zone efficiency (82.8%) and reliance on long drives make explosive scoring unlikely against this Buckeyes defense that allows touchdowns on just 33% of red-zone trips, which is the nation’s best rate.

Offensively, Ohio State has leaned into methodical, high-efficiency drives under freshman quarterback Julian Sayin (80% completion rate). Expect more of that here: underneath throws, controlled tempo and limited risk.

Illinois’ banged-up secondary will likely sit in soft zones, forcing Sayin to dink and dunk rather than attack deep. Combined with Illinois’ intent to run the clock and keep Ohio State’s offense off the field, it’s hard to envision a pace that clears 50 points. This one profiles similarly to the Buckeyes’ 24-6 win at Washington.

Pick #3: Arizona State +6 (-110) vs. Utah

This spread looks like a reputation number for Utah, and that’s where the value lies with the Sun Devils. Arizona State has been one of the grittiest teams in the country under Kenny Dillingham, showing fight in its 27-24 comeback win over TCU after trailing 17-0. Coming off a bye, ASU is rested, confident, and still underrated by the market.

Utah, meanwhile, has clear offensive limitations. Quarterback Devon Dampier isn’t 100%, and the Utes’ attack relies heavily on the run (242.6 YPG, 9th FBS). That’s a poor matchup against an ASU defense that ranks 8th nationally in rushing yards allowed (78.2).

Offensively, ASU has legitimate weapons. Quarterback Sam Leavitt has been sharp (69% completion rate last game), and wideout Jordyn Tyson, the best NFL-draft eligible at his position, is a mismatch nightmare who thrives against man coverage, something Utah plays a ton of.

The Utes defense is physical but far from perfect, especially in the red zone, where opponents have scored on 100% of trips (129th FBS). With ASU’s balance and ability to extend drives, those extra possessions should translate into points.

Both teams are coming off byes, but Utah’s loss to Texas Tech before the break showed how vulnerable this team is when it can’t dominate on the ground. Expect Dillingham and Leavitt to keep this one close wire-to-wire.