CFB Week 6 Saturday picks - Oct 5

As we approach the massive October 12 slate, this Saturday presents some intriguing Big Ten matchups that could set the tone for next week. Today, we’ll break down 3 key games: USC at Minnesota (-8.5), Ohio State vs. Iowa (-18.5), and Michigan’s money line (+115) against Washington. These predictions hinge on matchups, momentum and teams’ readiness to take on stiffer competition. Let’s dive into the picks.

Predictions

Pick #1: USC Trojans -8.5 (-110) vs Minnesota Golden Gophers

Pick #2: Ohio State Buckeyes -18.5 (-110) vs Iowa Hawkeyes

Pick #3: Michigan Wolverines ML (+115) vs Washington Huskies

Pick #1: USC -8.5 (-110) vs Minnesota

USC travels to Minnesota, and the oddsmakers don’t see this as a guaranteed win for the Trojans – who come in as 8.5-point favorites. That’s a bit surprising given Minnesota’s struggle with top-tier opponents. The Gophers boast a solid run defense, but USC doesn’t rely much on the ground game – preferring to air it out behind quarterback Miller Moss. Minnesota hasn’t faced a passing attack like USC’s, and Moss has weapons in wideouts Zachariah Branch and Duce Robinson that can exploit the secondary.

USC’s season hasn’t been flawless, particularly after a disappointing loss to Michigan, but they bounced back with a surge of 28 unanswered points against Wisconsin. That momentum should carry into this game, especially since they’re facing Minnesota early in the fall before the bitter cold sets in. The Trojans also feel more mature and complete than in previous years, a key factor in their ability to control the game’s tempo.

On the flip side, Minnesota will rely heavily on Darius Taylor, who has been the backbone of their offense. While the Gophers can certainly make things tough for USC’s defense, it’s hard to see them keeping up if USC hits its stride offensively. With more versatile playmakers and momentum, USC should cover the spread.

Pick #2: Ohio State -18.5 (-110) vs Iowa

Ohio State is favored by 18.5 points against Iowa in a game that could serve as the Buckeyes’ first true test of the season. While Kirk Ferentz’s Hawkeyes are no pushover, this is still a matchup that tilts heavily in Ohio State’s favor. Iowa’s strength lies in its offensive line and defense, but the latter has been prone to giving up chunk plays more than usual this year. That’s problematic against a Buckeyes team that boasts elite wideouts like Emeka Egbuka and freshman phenom Jeremiah Smith.

Defensively, Ohio State has arguably the most talented roster in the country, and it has been dominant in every phase. Its ability to shut down Iowa’s star running back Kaleb Johnson will be a key factor. If the Buckeyes stack the box and force Iowa to rely on the pass, it’s hard to see the Hawkeyes keeping up. Iowa’s improved offense will face its toughest test yet, and while their defense could make it interesting for a while, Ohio State’s firepower should eventually be too much to handle.

Even if Iowa’s defense slows the pace, Ohio State’s offensive weapons are likely to break through eventually. With the home-field advantage in Columbus, it’s reasonable to expect a 31-10 type of game in which Ohio State covers the spread.

Pick #3: Michigan Money Line (+115) vs Washington

The final pick of the day takes us to Washington, where Michigan is set to face the Huskies in a rematch of last year’s national championship game. Both teams have undergone significant changes since then, with new coaches and many stars now in the NFL. Despite their competitive showing this season, Washington has been somewhat overlooked – but Michigan offers a particularly tough challenge.

Washington’s loss to Rutgers exposed some flaws, particularly in their inability to finish drives in the red zone. While they significantly outgained Rutgers, they couldn’t capitalize when it mattered most. Now, they’re up against one of the nation’s stoutest defenses in Michigan. The Wolverines have a trio of elite runners in Alex Orji, Donovan Edwards, and Kalel Mullings, all of whom can wear down a defense over the course of a game. Add in the fact that tight end Colston Loveland is back and healthy, and Michigan has the tools to grind out a victory on the road.

Washington struggled to contain Rutgers’ run-heavy attack, and Michigan will present an even tougher challenge in that department. While this game could be close and tense until the end, getting Michigan at plus value on the money line feels like a steal. Look for their elite trench play to be the difference in a hard-fought road win.